For the past two years I have compiled a list of players who I believed were poised to break out into the type of players your chosen team could count on to perform every week.
The basis of the analysis was that each player had less than 30 games of AFL experience. My last two editions have provided some booms and busts, so let’s do it all over again. This is part one. Parts two and three will follow over the next week.
Adelaide Crows: Wayne Milera
Last year I also nominated Milera. I feel as though I may have missed how dominant Adelaide would be during the home-and-away season, which therefore saw role players like Milera doing exactly that – playing a minor but pivotal role.
Season 2018, especially with Adelaide’s loss of dash in Charlie Cameron, looms as a big one for Milera. He was highly touted when Adelaide used their first pick on him, and it appears that expectations will be higher than ever three preseasons into his career.
His ability to hit the outside of the contest at top speed and burst away is something that Adelaide will utilise a lot this year, and I expect him to improve in all facets of his game.
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Brisbane Lions: Alex Witherden
Its hard to go past Witherden here, the boy from Geelong who started his career in Round 14 this year and quickly became one of the hottest rookies in the game. Playing across half-back, he showed a brilliant mix of aggression and poise and entrusted his right boot to hit targets in dangerous areas of the ground. In just his second AFL game he racked up 29 touches, and two games later he was awarded a rising star nomination.
He finds himself under the tutelage of one of the games most respected defensive midfielders of all time in Luke Hodge, so I’m expecting his natural progression to carry him further into AFL relevance this campaign.
(Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Carlton Blues: Charlie Curnow
Carlton once had an AFL cult hero and extraordinary talent in Anthony Koutoufides, and those of us who have kept a close eye on young Charlie Curnow know that he’s not too dissimilar to the great man.
A powerfully built young star who has natural explosive power and general running ability and capacity, he’s a pinch hitter who can run the midfield and then proceed to go one out deep in the forward line like our games champions Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe.
Given Carlton will likely miss out on the finals again this year, this 27-game player is the sort fans need as a bright light in dark times.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Fremantle Dockers: Sean Darcy
Darcy was another player who at the end of last year benefited from the injuries of those above him, and while he is the understudy of one of this decade’s most dominant big men in Aaron Sandilands, he is now 35 and feeling the pinch.
While he may not feature in every game, he has raw potential to become a dominant tap winner. His frame is massive, and at 19 he was bullying some of the game’s most seasoned campaigners. The 2018 season may not be a big one, but Fremantle fans could see their big man for next ten to 12 years begin to flourish.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Essendon Bombers: Andrew McGrath
The Bombers’ lack of depth of players below 30 games is somewhat surprising, which is why I’ve settled with last year’s rising star winner Andrew McGrath. McGrath proved his class by being drafted number one and then justifying his pick. His ability to switch between defence and midfield is first class and his willingness to compete and win the ball is admirable.
He had games last year where he accumulated more football, but his job on Eddie Betts late in the year was a performance that even the best lockdown defenders would be incapable of. The ability to nullify Eddie’s impact went a long way to keeping the Bombers within touching distance a red-hot Adelaide outfit. He meets Eddie again on the second night of the season, so we can measure up his performance and look forward to his 2018 season.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Collingwood Magpies: Matthew Scharenberg
The Pies have been crying out for a dominant key position player for years, and while Scharenberg has certainly made them wait, at least he has provided a sliver of hope.
During his junior years in South Australia many of the state’s most informed voices penned Scharenberg as perhaps one of the most precocious talents the state had ever produced. Mark Williams was quoted as saying that he was the best schoolboy talent he had seen since Wayne Carey, so it was easy to understand why Pies fans were thrilled when Scharenberg landed in their lap at pick six in the 2013 draft.
Years of foot and knee issues have restricted Scharenberg to only 14 games, but when he strung ten together at the end of last year it was clear that the talent is still there. He averaged 20 touches and eight marks at centre half back, providing just a glimmer of what could be possible for him in season 2018.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
It's hard to say Essendon's McGrath will have a break-out year. Surely that was l;ast year. If he has a break-out year this year he'd be the new Fyfe, Dangerfield or Martin. I'm not so sure. Maybe a gradual improve but not another break-out year. Two better possibilities would be Langford (31 games) and Stewart (34 games). Stewart showed last season he has great potential and this coming season could be make or break season for him. He could blossom into a very good key Forward releasing Hooker to defence, or he could be pushed aside by other developing talent like Langford, Laverde (23 games) or Francis (5 games). Langford is the 2nd make or break player. Has started with promise across half-forward but developed in the 2's as a midfielder following the pathway of Fyfe as his model. If he is successful, then this year will tell the story - a break-out season or a collapse into football oblivion. Both Stewart and Langford are riskier choices but for break-out season prospects they are better choices than an already established quality player who won the AFL best 1st year player. Anyway, why limit yourself to less than 30 games?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
With Witherden is having a break out year, wow...... I'm going to throw out a hue Hail Mary. I'm expecting the "Eagle" to Land at the Lions. The Recruit Matty Eagles to crack 1's and play 4-6 games, which were he's come from would be an amazing effort.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Boom, Boom, Tish
Don Freo
Guest
Doesn't get his hands on the ball enough.
Don Freo
Guest
Part of Freo's sponsorship as of now is that all pubs and night clubs are closing until the end of the footy season. He'll be fine when the footy starts. The best therapy possible will be 2 games in a row.
Cat
Roar Guru
If the reports are true, it seems to be off to a wonderful start /sarcasm
Macca
Guest
Steve - if Williamson goes as well as I think it will definitely be pool room, it will only ever be worn I find he bombs completely which seems unlikely
Steve009
Roar Rookie
Nice gift. Pool room or worn with pride. Goes under the radar a bit Williamson, probably due to the amount of young high draft picks we have had come to the club recently, but last year he was more than just a young player they were getting games into. Very reliable, efficient and a solid contributor in his first season. I hope that jumper of yours has a high asking price in ten years Macca
The Original Buzz
Guest
Nice.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Lucky you Macca.
Macca
Guest
Steve, Col, Buzz - I forgot to share my Christmas present from my in laws KK with you - a number 31 jumper signed with Christmas wishes form Tom Williamson. should be worth a pretty penny once he fills Dochèrtys AA spot this year! ;)
Steve009
Roar Rookie
Silvagni is another who I think could take that jump from being a 20 goal player to 30, all the while still competing for a spot in the 22. Smart player, like his effort level, can find space and the goals, but I think he will have to take another step as player next year to keep his spot as a permanent player in the side. I really hope he does, I like him as a player and not just because of his blood lines
Steve009
Roar Rookie
Not sure which of the recycled players will make our best 22, but you are right about the improvement in depth on the list. Credit it to SOS. The competition for a spot in Carlton's best 22 this pre season will be hot.
Steve009
Roar Rookie
It's the steady improvement of not just Curnow, but that whole young group of Weitering, SPS, Fisher, Plowman, Cunningham, Williamson, Silvagni and Marchbank, and Kennedy (possibly even Lang) that has me excited not just 2018, but beyond. I actually think Kennedy is primed for taking that big step up as a player next year. He looks to want that responsibility. And then there is the next group I'm excited about, Harry McKay, Pickett, Ciarin Byrne, paddy Dow and Lochie Obrian, hopefully establishing themselves as AFL players in 2018.
Steve009
Roar Rookie
And like Riewoldt could spend time playing on a wing as a marking target. Early on in career I know, but I'm not yet sold on Curnow's ability at ground level or the quickness of his disposal by hand (or boot) for him to become a genuine inside midfielder. Maybe a few bullocking runs in the middle at times like Roughhead does for the Hawks.
Macca
Guest
Steve - the Riewoldt comparison is a good one IMO, I think he will be very similar but with a bit more flair
Macca
Guest
Exactly Steve, that realisation is very important and is the big reason I think he will improve again in 2018, to have a full pre-season with that attitude could be enormous
Steve009
Roar Rookie
His back half of the season was great to watch and why I think he is well capable of becoming a 2 goal a game player next year if he predominantly plays as a centre half forward. And it wasn't just the goals or stats in the second half of the season that impressed with Curnow, it was his attitude and the way he started to attack the ball in the air. He looked like a player who realised that he wasn't just capable of playing afl football, he could be dominant at it.
Steve009
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure what the obsession is with Curnow becoming a midfielder. He played his junior football as a key forward, he played his best football as a key forward last year and from what I've watched over the last few years Carlton could probably benefit with a reliable marking goal kicker. I'm sure he will spend time in the middle, but with his tank, athleticism and marking ability I hope that is predominantly as a Nick Riewoldt style, roaming CHF. I hope Carlton have learnt from pushing Weitering into the role of forward before he had established himself as a backman. The position he played when we drafted him and where he has played his best football in the AFL.
Macca
Guest
Steve - I don't think anyone is thinking he will be "elite" his year but I think he could go from kicking 20 to more than 30 goals. Also if you look at his stats he didn't kick a goal in his first 4 games and had just 2 shots on goal and before round 12 (inclusive) he had 5 games where he didn't get 10 possessions compared with none after with just 3 below 15. Just performing like he did in the back half of th year for a full season would see a massively statistical improvement before we even get to any improvement from another pre-season and hopefully getting more help from the likes of McKay, Silvagni and Pickett up forward.