No, seriously – the north are coming!

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article that suggested that the gap between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere rugby was closing if not closed.

I used data from matches between the top six teams from each hemisphere from two years before and two years after the 2015 World Cup, where the south demonstrated their dominance by selfishly taking all four semi-final spots.

While the article received positive feedback and certainly inspired a good amount of debate, there was one consistent piece of feedback that stood out regarding the teams included in the dataset.

For those who haven’t read the original article, the focus was on the results when these teams went head to head:

Southern Hemisphere
New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Fiji and Samoa.

Northern Hemisphere
England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Italy and France

The British and Irish Lions tour of New Zealand was also included, and boy did that incite some debate.

(AAP Image/David Rowland)

Some of the feedback suggested it was inappropriate to include Fiji and Samoa. Many pointed out that they didn’t have their own domestic leagues or decent structures in place. The feeling of several Roarers was that including these two sides heavily skewed the data in the favour of the north.

It’s worth noting though that many of the Samoan and Fijian national players play their club rugby at some of the best clubs around the world and are exposed to top-level training, facilities, insight and competition week in week out.

Thirteen of the starting 15 Fijians who played tn their recent northern tour play in the top English or French leagues and many are also playing in the European Champions Cup or European Rugby Challenge Cup. That’s not to say that this replaces the value of a solid competitive domestic league, but let’s not kid ourselves – the Samoan and Fijian players are not stuck at second-rate clubs in third-tier rugby nations.

It’s also worth noting that the overall debate is about comparing the hemispheres. Yes, the focus has definitely been on head-to-head results between nations to create the data, but there is a broader context here that is being considered: how is each hemisphere performing as a whole.

[latest_videos_strip category=”rugby” name=”Rugby”]

But it is interesting to see what happens if we do remove some of the weaker sides from both hemispheres and review the data. So here we go – two years of internationals either side of the 2015 World Cup with matches between the following sides considered with their rankings:

Southern Hemisphere
New Zealand (1), Australia (4), South Africa (6), Argentina (8)

Northern Hemisphere
England (2), Ireland (3), Scotland (5) and Wales (7)

2017
12 matches
South: three wins (25 per cent)
North: nine wins (75 per cent)

2016
20 matches
South: eight wins (40 per cent)
North: 12 wins (60 per cent)

2014
19 matches
South: 11 wins (58 per cent)
North: eight wins (42 per cent)

2013
13 matches
South: eight wins (62 per cent)
North: five wins (38 per cent)

In the discussion on the previous article many people were suggesting that one of the major points to consider is that a lot of Southern Hemisphere players and coaches are moving North and helping to improve both club rugby and international rugby. While it might be absolutely true that we’re seeing more players of Southern Hemisphere heritage turning out for Northern Hemisphere teams, it’s worth noting a couple of things.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

First, France – a common destination for talented players from Southern Hemisphere countries – is not included in the above numbers. Second, it further supports the case that rugby in the north is on the charge if they are able to support domestic competitions that can attract talent from the south with the promise of bigger salaries and good quality rugby.

It’s easy to scoff and say that the north’s success owes a lot to Southern Hemisphere talent, but nowhere in the record books will there be a note that says that England’s current winning streak over Australia is all down to an Australian coach and nowhere on the Web Ellis trophy is there a footnote that explains that the holder won because French clubs were able to pay more cash to their players.

It’s also fair to say that the Southern Hemisphere teams are far from dead and buried. New Zealand are still by far and away the best rugby nation on the planet and Australia and South Africa have plenty of quality upon which to rebuild success. We’re also two years away from the big dance in Japan, where we’ll really be able to see if the north’s progress has amounted to anything.

But this past year has demonstrated in great clarity in both Australia and South Africa that the underlying structures and processes that help to grow quality rugby are broken. Without quickly fixing them both these giants of the world game are going to fall further and further behind.

Make no bones about it, the north are coming.