In 2012, the National Rugby League decided that no expansion would take place until after the 2022 season.
However, since that time there has been little information regarding the criteria for any future expansion. In fact, many within the game continue to argue against expansion.
The arguments against expansion include:
1. Lack of player depth;
2. No expansion should occur until all current teams are financially viable;
3. Lack of central funds
The NRL should hear these reasons, but they should not be the guidelines for which expansion is considered. These arguments can easily be countered.
Firstly, the lack of player depth should not be relevant when a salary cap is in place. If the salary cap is monitored correctly, then the talent should be evenly spread meaning that games should be close-fought contests. Naturally, the importance here is on the monitoring of the cap.
Secondly, the financial viability of teams. From the 2018 season onwards clubs receive 30 per cent above the salary cap. If they can not be sustainable with this, then new management must be implemented within these clubs.
They should all run at a profit now or the very least break-even. The NRL won’t continue to prop clubs up now if they are not performing financially.
Finally, the lack of central funds should not matter. If new teams entered, then the percentage of revenue handed out to the clubs would be split 18/20 ways instead of the current 16.
If expansion is what the NRL wants then clubs and players must realise that it may mean that future salary caps do not rise as much as they like if at all, or in fact may go down a little. No doubt you think pigs will fly before the NRL and clubs allow that to happen. Regardless, I’m still hoping for the best.
Since the arguments against expansion can be countered, the arguments that follow are based on how many teams should be included and where these teams should be located. There is a wide range of views regarding expansion bids.
Do we expand into non-traditional markets or consolidate rugby league strongholds? These opinions, although valid, miss the primary factor that should be key – value.
Rugby league in Perth (AAP/Action Photographics, Colin Whelan)
The value includes the clubs sustainability, membership, junior links and fan support as well as corporate support. Ultimately, the value indicates whether the club can add to the competition or subtracts from the competition.
So let’s analyse the different bids that have expressed interest over the years and see if they would add value or not the competition.
In the South-East there has been a range of bids. The Brisbane Bombers, Brothers Leprechauns, Western Corridor, and Redcliffe. Naturally, only one of these proposals would be successful.
The positives for a Brisbane team are many. Brisbane is the third largest city in Australia. A game each week in Brisbane makes sense for broadcasters.
This additional game could mean that Brisbane might get the much desired Sunday afternoon game. The corporate support would be there. Not all the major companies can sponsor the Broncos, having another team allows the option for big business to support another team.
Fan support shouldn’t be a problem, although they wouldn’t be as big as the Broncos. However, if they were successful over time, then eventually it is possible that they might rival the Broncos.
The negative is that the area is an over-crowded sports market. The Gold Coast Titans are struggling and possibly so would any new team in the south-east. Fair point I suppose. Also, it has is argued that a second team would dilute the Brisbane fan-base rather than add to it.
Overall, I feel the positives do outweigh the negatives, and a Brisbane bid would enhance the competition. So what about the individual bids? Who should progress?
The Brisbane Bombers were advised to enter a team into the Queensland Cup. They refused arguing that a new identity was needed to combat the Broncos brand. They indicated that putting a team in the Q-Cup would remove the freshness of their brand. It’s the NRL or nothing for this bid. All of their home games would play out of Suncorp Stadium.
The Leprechauns were formally in some fashion part of the old Brisbane Rugby League. They have Leagues clubs all over the state and have a vast amount of support at their disposal. Although, the Ipswich branch of the Leprechauns is supporting the Western Corridor bid, they indicated that they would play 6-8 games out of Suncorp and the remaining 4-6 games in regional areas of Queensland.
In essence, the Western Corridor Bid is an Ipswich Jets bid. Some games would be played at Suncorp, but long term they would be hoping to be based out of Ipswich. They have an excellent junior base in a growing area.
Fan support is limited due to the club’s current placing in the Q-Cup. I’m sceptical if this support would increase enough to support an NRL level team.
Redcliffe Dolphins – A progressive club based on the very northern edges of greater Brisbane. Games would play out of Suncorp. However, they may struggle with fans as other people of Brisbane might not follow a Q-Cup team similar to the situation for the Western Corridor bid team.
Personally, I feel the Brisbane Bombers offers the most. It is fresh and new and would be in fact a Brisbane team. The Ipswich and Redcliffe teams should remain in the Q-Cup where I feel they add the most value. Although many argue against the expansion of the Q-Cup, it would be good to see the Brothers club re-join this competition – if financially viable.
Therefore, if we take the Brisbane Bombers bid to be the best bid for the South-East, then we can pool it with other bids – Central Coast Bears, Central Queensland, Papua New Guinea, Wellington N.Z and Perth. I don’t think any Adelaide franchise have expressed an interest, so I have not included them in this list.
(Supplied)
The Central Coast is the ninth largest region in Australia. Not only that, by continuing the brand of the Bears it keeps the history of the North Sydney club active at the elite level. It reconnects fans that have been lost to the game.
The Central Coast and North Sydney regions provide the fan support that every club needs. The corporate support may be lacking in the Central Coast region, but it certainly is not lacking in the North Sydney area. Central Coast Stadium would host most season games while North Sydney Oval could host friendlies.
This bid brings a feel-good factor back to the game similar to when South Sydney was readmitted into the competition. Curious to see how viable the club would be long term though. I like this bid.
Central Queensland is home to roughly 230,000 people. The bid team indicate that 450,000 people live within a 3.5-hour drive to where games would be played.
They also claim that if a bid would be successful, then the government would assist in the building of a stadium. Despite being in a rugby league heartland, one wonders if they could get the crowds needed to support an NRL team. I feel it may struggle.
The West Coast Pirates based out of the fourth largest city in Perth makes a lot of sense. It opens a new market concerning fans and corporate support. It provides the game and broadcasters with another timeslot. The critical indicator would be sustainability. If the front office was well run, then this club should be a success. I like this bid.
Wellington could be another option for the game. The club offers New Zealand fans another team to support other than the Warriors. It provides the code with another time-slot for broadcasters. It would have a city to itself – not counting the rugby union Hurricanes.
Fan support might be an issue. Not a large number of people from Wellington have attended games in the past. Remember all the empty seats for the New Zealand and Fiji quarter-final at the World Cup. One bid group did suggest they would play games in Hamilton and in the Pacific to gain more support.
(NRLPhotos/Nathan Hopkins)
I feel that this proposal has more potential then Central Queensland, however, at the moment the bid still seems in its infancy. Ideally, if a team out of Wellington is not in the NRL it then should be participating in the NSW Cup.
The Papua New Guinea Hunters decided to enter into the Q-Cup when the Bombers did not. Getting the fan and corporate support would not be a problem for a team that would represent a nation. I can’t argue too much with this bid other to say that a stadium holding 14,500 is not quite big enough for the NRL competition.
I recognise the atmosphere at the ground would enhance the viewing of the NRL as it did for the World Cup, I am not sure how much a Papua New Guinea team would increase the broadcasting rights value for the sport. Ideally, a team out of Papua New Guinea should continue to participate in the Q-Cup even if an NRL license is granted or not.
Personally, if it were up to me to decide, I would go for a 20-team NRL competition. I admit to being in the rugby league expansion camp.
Though, I recognise that money is the required ingredient and in all likelihood, no expansion will occur in 2023 or if it did, it most likely, would only rise by two to 18 teams.
Regardless, the teams that I would include would be:
17th team – The Brisbane Bombers
18th team – The West Coast Pirates
19th team – The Central Coast Bears
20th team – Wellington, with PNG a close second.
In future, to obtain an Adelaide team, I would look to offer money to a Sydney team to relocate. Clubs would have to want to move. I wouldn’t force any club to relocate as this would only alienate more fans. A move to Adelaide however, would allow for the NRL footprint to expand into a truly national competition.
Obviously, many don’t see the need for expansion. Also, fans see club greed as a stoppage to the growth of the game. These views are well justified. I note that this outline is merely an opinion based purely on a hypothetical outcome.
Regardless, I do hope to see the game expand and I think in the future if the game is adequately managed then 20 teams could survive and thrive in a national competition.
Naturally, all of this is my opinion. Do you think the NRL should expand in 2023?
If the NRL decided to expand the competition in 2023 and beyond, how many teams should be added and where do you think clubs should be located?
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
I hate this idea that Brisbane should get a second team. The Broncos are the NRL's biggest drawcard and money maker. The game has everything it needs (accept for a stadium) to base a club in rugby league heartland of the Ipswich/Logan corridor.
Bearfax
Roar Guru
Well stated Alan. You have some excellent thoughts to consider there.
Alan muscroft
Guest
I believe the only chance the North Sydney Bears have of getting a NRL licence is to re locate to South Australia and call them selves the Adelaide Northern Bears,the N R L the Knights and Manly have the Central Coast covered and do not want them their. The N R L, the Bears,and the South Australian goverment should negotiate that the Adelaide Northern Bears would get a N R L licence in 2023 and money to relocate to South Australia and be named the Adelaide Northern Bears.Then in 2019/20/21/22 the Adelaide Northern Bears should organize with the South Australian goverment a base to train and play some N S W cup games to build the brand name and to start getting members and selling Adelaide Northern Bears merchandise. In 2023 the Adelaide Northern Bears would then come into the N R L and play all their home games in South Australia except for two games where they would play at Gosford they would be against Newcastle and Manly,the Adelaide Northern Bears fans in Sydney would also be able to watch all the away games played in Sydney as well, There is over one million people in South Australia,its a WIN for the N R L its a new market and its helping the S A N R L to develop rugby league,it will help to build the rugby league clubs in SA,entice more of the athletic players to our great game of rugby league when they see there is a elite pathways and develop squads straight to a N R L club. Its a WIN for the the BEARS they are back in the big league as the Adelaide Northern Bears.Its a WIN for the South Australian people who will have their own N R L team to support.16,000 at the ADELAIDE RAMS last home game,22,000 in 2017 for the Roosters and the Storm and may l add not all free tickets. I have been emailing G Florimo since 2015 about the Adelaide Northern Bears,but Greg says they want to go in there stand alone. If there was more N R L teams all the players that go to the Super league would stay in Australia,which would benifit Super league as they would be able to develop their own juniors. Off the top of my head 17 players from Super League from the N R L MAMo Vatuvi Mead Inu Brown Barba Roberts Bird LeFoa Masila Moa Parcell Nuusala Symonds Rankin Masoe Ikahihifo there is a lot more players in Super League as well. I enjoy everyones comments, I hope you all have nice Australia day
Mantis
Roar Guru
So because no one turns up to watch them play they arent an NRL quality half? ok mate strong argument.... A lot of players are as good as the players they play with - how many of these halves would improve when put in an nrl team compared to a nsw cup side i dont know, but itd be interesting to see.
Bearfax
Roar Guru
Interesting points Aem. I would however like to suggest that the overall negativity I read in these forums about a Perth team based on the mining bust, is like saying Russia ended as a world power following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The structure and wealth are still there, its just that quite normal readjustments to the over reaching activities had to occur. Western Australia had a mining boom comparable to previous gold rushes. It was always going to end, especially when China's development slowed. But it didnt stop and there are other nations such as India that are looking at our reserves. As well, Western Australia is seeking to become less dependent on such resources, just like California had to adjust after its gold rush. The slump economically in WA looks like its ended and gradual growth is happening and expected to continue. So the gloom and doom about monies being unavailable for an NRL rugby league side is an over reaction borne out of short term economic perspectives. Western Australia probably wont go through another such boom, but it will continue to grow substantially.
Aem
Guest
Firstly, 4 teams? Nah - 2. Otherwise you'll massively dilute the competition in one swift blow. We've seen that before, we know what it looks like... it's not pretty. Central Coast = no. I was a Bears fan, but they aren't viable as an additional team - the Sydney market is already over-saturated. The only way the CC gets a team is if Sydney loses one. I doubt WA is financially viable, and with the end of the mining boom a few years ago, population growth isn't likely to be sustained at a high rate in the area... this is not a Melbourne-sized market where it is worth it for the game in the long term to take a short term loss. Wellington... the interest just isn't there. The Warriors need a kick up the backside that this option could provide, but unless you have a reliable multi-millionaire bankrolling it.... I doubt that's the right play. PNG + another QLD team is probably the play, if any expansion happens at all (unlikely).
uglykiwi
Roar Pro
Lets kick Souths out again!
Renegade
Roar Guru
No they didn’t, they looked at taking a game there once a year back in the early 2000s before it became fashionable. Never looked at whether Perth was a sustainable long term option
Stormer
Guest
Yes, Adelaide is viable and likely to draw big crowds regularly.
Stormer
Guest
Sorry you confused me when you said "football fans". Just call it soccer. I'm not sure why people are vowing to the soccer crowd who want to monopolise the term "football" which can be applied to a lot more than one game.
Bearfax
Roar Guru
NOIP that happens to every club when they are losing. They had a great first 4 years reaching 3rd in their 3rd year and home crowds averaging over 19,000. But since their fifth year they have dwelt on the bottom half of the comp, only once again reaching the finals...and only just. You check any club and during their lean years they always drop about the same amount. Crowds love winners. If the Titans revitalise and become a top four side again, the crowds will return to around the 20,000 mark. Same would happen in Perth.
BA Sports
Guest
If they were good players, people would take advantage of the cheap ticket prices to come and watch - people other than friends and family. There are plenty of football fans in the far north and plenty on the Gold Coast - but when the A-League expanded beyond its means, nobody went to watch because they were given players that nobody cared about. Gold Coast and North Queensland own two of the four worst average attendances in the history of the league - about 4,000 per match for a season. If the NRL don't learn from others mistakes they are fools.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Titans were pulling in over 20,00 their first two seasons. Crowds have fallen away 30% since. And that is in a new stadium in what is apparently rugby league heartland. Once the novelty of something new wears off the crowds fall away. Look at the BBL as an example
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Cronulla did do a study, that is a fact. How much of it was public or if you want to believe it is not my concern,
RandyM
Guest
probably because its NSW cup... what does how many fans show up have to do with their ability to play NRL?
BA Sports
Guest
So if the back-ups are so good - remind me why nobody ever goes to watch them? Less than 150 people watched the NSW Cup semi final double header at Jubilee Oval last year. The Dogs, Illawarra, NZ and Knights all played - The Knights probably had the most supporters...
BA Sports
Guest
The Courts ruled the Salary cap was reasonable providing the draft was lifted - the combination of the two restraints was deemed to collectively impact the players rights. But since then further restraints have grown around the players ability to earn money outside their contract and the limit to what products and services players are allowed to endorse under TPA's is getting tighter and tighter as the NRL strives to increase its sponsorship net. The Salary Cap can survive if it is seen to be in the best interest of the players because it retains business strength and provides an even competition that will support financial growth. But if someone was able to show the Salary Cap was holding back the league's earning capacity and the players earning capacity - it would come under heavy scrutiny if challenged... Or so is the opinion of a Sports Law professor i was having a beer with over the Summer.
RandyM
Guest
on the other hand Benji Marshall was a backup last season. Moylan who played origin 2 years ago almost didn't have a club. Many clubs actually have a decent backup half, just because they are not Cooper Cronk doesn't mean they cant play first grade.
BA Sports
Guest
That is because there is way more juniors playing Australian rules football than rugby league. I say there are not enough players of NRL standard because I watch multiple NSW Cup matches a week, and a few years ago I was watching multiple QLD Cup games a week. Its just my opinion, but I see the skill gap. I also lived through Super league (like everyone) and saw just how bad the standard became - and we have less players to draw on now, than we did then. Here are your NSW Cup halves pairings from 2017 Penrith; (premiers) Darren Nichols and Jarome Luai Tigers; Bayley Sironen and Veiru Mapesone Bears: Adam Doueihi and Luke Kelly Knights: Jalen Feeny and Jack Cogger Roos; Jayden Nikorima and Mitch Cornish Dogs: Josh Cleeland and Lachlan Lewis Wenty: Troy Dargan and Jeff Robson Mounties: Lachlan Croker and Isaac John Warriors: Sam Cook and Mason Lino Illawarra: Drew Hutchison and Adam Clune Jets: Tyla Tamou and Manumalealii Workers: Pita Godinet and Jackson Hastings That is 24 halves. None of them are currently NRL standard players, a handful are decent backups and a handful are still developing. But for your 20 team comp you need at least 4 of these guys as every day starters right now and someone from below (a lesser standard or even younger) these guys will become their back ups. That is just halves - multiply that out by hookers, fullbacks, backrowers, props and outside backs that can actually defend - and all of the new reserves you need to find. Please don't tell me there are enough players for a 20 team comp.
sheek
Guest
Mark, I certainly agree with two expansion teams, one in Brisbane & another in NZ. I've long believed it is almost criminal that the Broncos have had Brisbane all to themselves. It makes no sense on any level. Too many logical, practical, common sense reasons I can't be bothered rehashing here. As for NZ, I believe if you're going to have NZ participation in an Australian comp, then it should be two teams minimum. Or none at all. Having only one team is like creating a pseudo national team. Not that its done the Warriors too many favours. But that's it. I can't see a team out of Perth. Rugby union has a stronger presence in the west but they're struggling for traction themselves. Central Coast is a nice dream venture, but like the Gold Coast, a nice place to holiday, but can they ever get a serious team there? As for PNG, well, I think that's a team too far. I was born & raised in PNG, although completing my boarding school in Sydney. I haven't been back there since the year they got Independence, 1975. That's a very long stretch now, & although I still know people who live up there & tell me what's changed & what hasn't, I doubt PNG has the depth & wealth to create a premiership winning team in the next 50 years at least. But of course, I could be wrong. Yes, I know rugby league is the national game of PNG, but despite this, their development is very gradual, very small steps at a time. NZ has a bigger population, more wealth & dare I say it, more talent. Yet they have struggled in the NRL. Why would PNG do it easier? To be honest, I don't think there's much room for expansion for rugby league. Maybe two more teams in the NRL, but that's about it.