With less than 50 days until the 2018 NRL season kicks off, it is time to look at how each team looks for the year ahead. First up is Newcastle, a team that is coming into 2018 off three straight wooden spoons, although things appear to be looking up for the Knights.
Ins and outs
The Knights have plenty of personnel changes for 2018, consistent with a side that is very much going through a rebuilding phase.
Ins: Kalyn Ponga (Cowboys), Connor Watson (Roosters), Aidan Guerra (Roosters), Tautau Moga (Broncos), Herman Ese’ese (Broncos), Slade Griffin (Storm), Jacob Lillyman (Warriors), Chris Heighington (Sharks), Mitchell Pearce (Roosters)
Outs: Dane Gagai (Rabbitohs), Rory Kostjasyn (retired), Sam Mataora (retired), Mickey Paea (Hull FC), Anthony Tupou (retired), Joe Wardle (Castleford Tigers), Josh Starling (retired), Jack Stockwell (released), Pauli Pauli (released), Jaelen Feeney (released), Peter Mata’utia (Leigh Centurions), David Bhana (released), Tyler Randell (Wakefield Trinity), Chanel Mata’utia (released)
What do they need to do better in 2018?
Defence, defence, defence.
The Knights were entertaining and spirited in attack for most of 2017, but their defence was indicative of their position on the ladder, conceding an average of nearly 30 points per game.
Often they gave away big starts, or gave up big starts of their own. The games they did win were often when they found a way to grind it out in defence.
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Key recruits
Every recruit is important at this stage. Many names coming in bring plenty of experience, which will contribute significantly to their woes in defence.
The two key players if the Knights do plan on playing finals footy are Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga.
Pearce has been one of the most maligned and scrutinised players for much of his career, having failed to steer NSW to a single series victory. While there have certainly been other factors at play, Pearce has seldom been the man in clutch moments for the Blues.
The former Roosters No.7 has often been the halfback in experienced, capable teams. The Knights are a whole different ball game. They will be expecting him to take ownership and bring a winning mentality to this team.
Ponga is one of the hottest prospects in the NRL. He had limited game time at the Cowboys but comes to the Hunter knowing he will almost certainly be their first-choice fullback.
Newcastle have struggled with consistency in a number of positions in recent seasons and the prospect of Ponga bringing x-factor at the back is exciting.
How will they go in 2018?
The wooden spoon won’t be heading to Newcastle in 2018. You get the feeling they have hit their lowest point and are starting to get the personnel they need to head back towards the top.
The Knights look like a team that already has an attitude and culture that can be built on, and some kids coming through that will benefit from the experience brought in.
Nathan Ross was one of my favourite players to watch last season. He epitomises what the Knights are about, putting in 100 per cent even when things aren’t going your way.
While the Knights will put themselves in the mix, 2018 won’t see them return to the finals. Big strides will be made, and Pearce will be front and centre, but a lack of quality and polish will see them fall short.
Predicted finish: 12th
souvalis
Guest
When I think of how Barba came down damaged from the Broncos and helped win the Sharkies their first ever comp,I become reluctant to write off Moga or any ex Bronco...ditto Jarrod Wallace,went from a 35 minute-a-game Brisbane bench warmer to SOO in less than 3 months at the Titans...very interested to watch the development of both Herman E. and Jai Arrow at new clubs and new coaches giving them more minutes.. Pauli,Stockwell and Feeney were all non performing releases by the club..Chanel M.couldnt crack the side last year was injury prone and decided to retire and the best offer Peter M.got was from Leigh..really do doubt any Knight fan would begin to share your ratings on that group..
Greg Ambrose
Guest
The big four are always there or thereabouts ......... except when they aren't. It wasn't that long ago that the Roosters won a spoon and the Cows were way down the wrong end of the table.
Greg Ambrose
Guest
They shouldn't get the spoon but I doubt if any team believes that they are going to be anywhere near it.
Albo
Guest
Greg, They have a handy pack of forwards developing now. Their real problem in recent years has been their lack of a "spine" ! They have now bought a complete new spine in Pearce, Watson, Ponga & Griffin , and combining them with this further experienced pack, will ensure there will be no wooden spoon this year.
uglykiwi
Roar Pro
Knights will finish 9th-12th; Can't see them getting into the 8; but they wont get the Spoon. That is reserved for the Warriors.
Albo
Guest
I'm with you souvalis ! I don't think the Knights have lost anyone of consequence apart from Gagai, and he was of minimal impact for the Knights compared to his State of Origin performances. I think they have bought well this year, with Pearce still the key to their improvement on the park. I think we saw last season the makings of a pretty dynamic pack of forwards ( the Saifiti boys, Josh King, Mitch Barnett, Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Sioni Mata Utia, Jamie Buhrer & Danny Levi ) and I expect them to improve even further this season. The addition of Guerra , Heighington & Ese Ese just add further experience to this developing pack. But it is in the backs that the big improvements have been made with Pearce, Watson, Ponga & Moga huge improvements to the backline of last season. So depending on how long the Knights new faces can form combinations with the current roster, I can see a vast improvement this year and a spot at the bottom of the 8 will not be out of reach.
Nat
Roar Guru
Don't get me wrong, they've purchased some good players but aside from Pearce (maybe Guerra) they are either potentials or seen better days. Heighington and Lillyman bring experience but they have not been at their best for years. The Mata’utia brothers, I'd have on equal as Ese'ese and Moga for both skill and experience. Correct me if wrong but wasn't Paulii Pauli on track for a blue jumper last year before the injury?. Feeney and Stockwell are young and they will get better at their new clubs. Gagai is the biggest loss but only because he never had the calibre of players around him to get his best. I wish Pearce well but I also think Hodkinson was a good #7 before he went up there as well and both come from dominant clubs.
Kilgore Trout
Roar Rookie
Agree Souvalis .I think Heighington and Lillyman were purchased for their off field influence , but if they get some quality minutes out of them as well , all the better . Watson and Ponga both look like potential superstars . Herman looks fit and hungry . Guerra is a rep level player . Safiti boys. Buhrer back . Pearce .... well it could go either way . Just have to wait and see . I think Pearce gettin out of the Roosters ( even though not of his choice ) will be great for him . A chance to re invent his game might be just what he needs . l'll back them to do well this season , which for me ,is not getting the spoon . The roster is good enough to make the eight " if " - they all get along with each other . That's always the unknown in a team with a lot of new faces .
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Lets wait and see how the Raiders gone after 5 or 6 rounds. You might all be surprised. There are plenty of people wanting to write off the Raiders this season but they've essentially got the same team as they did in 2016 when they were one dropped pass away from making a grand final. The Raiders have a much more friendly draw this season and losing Hodgson might force a few of the others such as Austin and Sezer to step up.
Peter Phelps
Guest
"The game is a one of inches, luck, injuries, team moral etc etc pay a huge part in who makes it and who misses it." Whilst I accept the truth of this statement I think that clubs make their own luck. That is why the big clubs Storm, Roosters Cowboys & Broncos are always there or thereabouts. Its about planning and knowing what could go wrong and having your bases covered when it does.
Peter Phelps
Guest
Fair enough, I just think that the Ricky factor will come into play as soon as they start struggling and undermine everything. I would not want to be a Raiders fan this year.
Knight Vision
Guest
Almost any team can make the 8 almost any given year, just as any "sure thing " for the 8 could come last. The game is a one of inches, luck, injuries, team moral etc etc pay a huge part in who makes it and who misses it. I think the moral will be there for the Knights and with some luck and lack of injuries they're finals bound this year. For sure they wont win the comp this year with the likes of the Storm, Roosters, Cowboys etc but now Wests have taken ownership hopefully soon we can trade our salary cap for a sombrero and compete with the Mexicans and the most iconic chant in rugby league can once again send shivers into the heart of opposing teams!!! NEWCASTLE NEWCASTLE NEWCASTLE
souvalis
Guest
I think there are a lot of worse buys to strengthen your bench out there than Lilleyman...considered still good enough for Qld Game 1 team by Kevvie in ‘17 and with nrl running meters,hit ups and tackles equal to Esse esse,Safiti,James Graham and RCG....pretty sure Brownie would be happy if he could average 130 meters in a fresher environment than what the Warriors played in...
Paul
Guest
The key to the Knights this year will be the coach, not the players. Brown has the tough task of integrating some good junior talent with some quality players. If he's up to the job, and Newcastle players some confident, team football, your prediction of 12th might be a tad low. If they don't perform in the first half the season, Mr Brown might be looking for another job by round 12. I think they'll significantly improve, but whether Brown's a good enough coach to make these guys finals material in the next 2 years, remains to be seen.
Jimmmy
Guest
Guerra and Heighinton will be a great influence on the youngsters for sure. Lilyman is way past his best though. Moga couldn’t set up Eric Groth for a try . He is a backrower trying to be a centre ( like a lot of them). Ponga is a talent but he is at least a couple of years away from being a high level player. Lamb looks good to me and with Pearce there the Knights won’t be easy beats but I just don’t see a finals berth for them. I really do hope I’m wrong.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
They're Outs far outweigh the Ins. Gagai saved his best for Queensland but it is a shame he won't play in Knights colours as they start to recruit players who may have brought out the best in him. Plenty of the recruits will benefit from a fresh start and benefit those around them with experience. Ponga could be the next big thing, as Cleary and Taylor have been in recent seasons, but time will tell. It will be interesting to see the halves pairing and if it ends up injury affected. Lamb tried his guts out last season and could be a star with Pearce alongside him or will Pearce need a bloke like Hodkinson beside him if isn't let go before 2018
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
Have to agree with souvalis. They have recruited really strongly in some areas, the pack needs some experience which they now have and Pearce could potentially be the signing of the year if he fires. Gagai was their biggest loss and even then his best three games of the season were always in Maroon. In regards to Ponga, while he may be untried at this level the Knights can at least hope for stability. As I said I am a big fan of Ross but he is no fullback. Hopefully Ponga can stay fit and prove himself early - we have had some fantastic young players come in and kill it recently, Cleary and Taylor for example, no reason why he can't go the same way.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
I can't buy into them playing finals football because they do have such a high turnover, combinations take time and they are relying somewhat on Pearce to dominate, and so he should for his million dollar salary. They have recruited strongly and I can see them really being in the mix especially over the Origin period. But it takes a while to "learn how to win" after three seasons of bringing up the rear. The Knights making the 8 would be the feel good story of 2018 and I'd certainly be happy to wrong about them
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
The Raiders will definitely struggle without Hodgson for the start of the year and will have far too much ground to make up once he returns. But their are at least three other teams who would be my pick for the spoon at this stage - the Bulldogs, Tigers or Warriors.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Just looking at the INs and OUTs list I think Knights get a lot more than they lose. Even though the Outs is a big list most of them hardly played or were bench. Only Gagai is the big out but I think thats more than covered by Pearce. Matautia bros were solid but Moga and Ponga should cover that hole. As someone else mentioned Guerra has a combo with Pearce and Lilyman and Heighton bring the experience. Nathan Brown now has some decent talent on his hands or at least enough pieces of the puzzle so we will see his creds as a coach if he can mould that into a winning team. I think the biggest question mark is Ponga at fullback. He hasn't played enough at fullback for me to make a decision on his effect on this team. Pearce will be good, Lamb at 6 should be good as well and Levi at hooker is a proven with Griffin as his backup. The only real question is Ponga at the back...if he fires in that spine this team will go a long way. As much as I'd like them to make the finals I'm in the "improve but won't make the 8" camp.