Ricky Stuart’s Raiders were one of the hottest prospects in the NRL going into 2017.
Fresh off a season in which they had finished in the top two with a preliminary final loss to Melbourne denying them a grand final berth, 2017 promised so much but delivered so little for the Raiders.
While Canberra looked like they wanted to catch fire on a few occasions throughout the season, close losses crippled their chances. Josh Hodgson, Aidan Sezer and Blake Austin all struggled to take games by the scruff of the neck and get the results for their side.
If there was a moment that summed up the Raiders season, it came out in Bathurst in Round 14. Leading by eight with just two minutes left on the clock, the team would be stunned as the Panthers ran in two quick tries to win the game. It was an unbelievable and inexplicable loss for the Green Machine, with three golden-point losses for the season already.
This and other close losses probably just go to show what kind of season Canberra had. From icing close games and getting results in 2016 to being repeatedly beaten at the death. The demoralising losses and the lack of confidence they generate are big obstacles for a playing group to overcome.
While the Raiders battled hard and stayed in the fight until very late in the season, it would prove too big a mountain to climb after some tough early losses. With an off-season to refresh and refocus, can Ricky give the Raiders the killer instinct they need to get back to September?
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
How does their squad rate?
The Canberra squad is certainly top-eight material. They have a backline that has proven very potent. Joseph Leilua and Jordan Rapana scored 31 tries between them down the left and right sides last season
The Raiders left is hardly a weakness, though. Jarrod Croker combined with rookie Nick Cotric last year for 25 tries. While Jack Wighton isn’t yet among the best of the fullbacks in the game, he is a more than capable custodian for the Green Machine.
The forwards too are littered with some tough firebrands and young prospects. Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd are two tough, uncompromising props. Joe Tapine has looked a great prospect since joining from the Knights. Elliot Whitehead has been a consistent performer in his two seasons for the club. Josh Papalii and Sia Soliola add some aggression. The Raiders also add Charlie Gubb from the Warriors to their pack for 2018.
The playmaking stocks for the Raiders have been boosted ahead of the season. Sam Williams returns to the club, adding some depth and opening up competition for spots. Aiden Sezer and Blake Austin both had a disappointing 2017, but if Ricky can get a good combination going in the halves, they’ll win more games of footy.
The hooking role is certainly a worry for the Raiders going into 2018. With Josh Hodgson not expected back from a knee injury until Round 18, the Raiders have some big shoes to fill.
Craig Garvey and Siliva Havili have been the names floated around so far. Neither are going to come in and achieve Hodgson’s form, but they have to do a job regardless.
A left-field option – one that Ricky might not even consider – is to move Austin there. He has good pace off the mark, underrated strength, a great running game and a good show and go. It would also get Williams, Sezer and Austin on the field at once.
With a pretty settled squad in terms of recruitment and outgoing players Ricky goes into the season knowing that he will have to be getting more out of some of his personnel if he wants to make the finals.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Ins
Brad Abbey (Bulldogs), Charlie Gubb (Warriors 2019), Siliva Havili (Dragons 2018), Sam Williams (Wakefield 2018), Craig Garvey (Bulldogs 2018), Sitiveni Moceidreke (Rabbitohs 2018), Stefano Hala (Panthers 2019)
Outs
Adam Clydsdale (retired), Lachlan Croker (Sea Eagles), Jeff Lima (retired), Kato Ottio (Widnes, deceased), Clay Priest (Bulldogs), Zac Santo (Warriors), Scott Sorensen (Sharks), Dave Taylor (Toronto), Jordan Turner (Huddersfield), Kurt Baptiste (Leigh Centurions).
Injuries and suspensions
The loss of Josh Hodgson is a big one. He isn’t expected back until at least Round 18. Even when he does return he will not be at 100 per cent fit. The Raiders will need a good plan to compensate for his absence.
As big a loss as Hodgson is, the rest of the squad are reportedly fit for Round 1.
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Key Men: Sam Williams and Aidan Sezer
Aidan seemed like the missing piece of the puzzle for the Raiders when he arrived in 2016. As successful as that season was for Canberra, it would be a long bow to draw to say it was down to the halfback. That year it was Hodgson controlling the game from dummy half, much the same as Cameron Smith does, who was really running the show.
Sezer and Austin played every game together last year and were part of some pretty ordinary losses at the death. I am a big fan of Austin and how he plays. He is a strong running five-eighth, and what he lacks in skill he more than makes up for in effort. But he doesn’t really have the controlling tactical game Canberra missed last season.
Sezer has failed to really catch fire, and with Hodgson injured, there is no time like the present. He needs to step up at halfback and take some ownership. The good players in his position know how to close out the tight matches, and we scarcely saw that from Sezer last year. Whether it be a tactical early kick, earning a repeat set or kicking a field goal, this is his job as number seven.
In a clash with the Dragons last season locked at 14-all and in golden point, Sezer nailed a monstrous 40/20. The ensuing set would see the Raiders win the game. It is the example of the play that Sezer must provide on a more regular basis.
Sam Williams comes into it as a key player because of the pressure he puts on Sezer to perform. It is a recruitment move from Stuart that says to the halves that they won’t get 24 games together if they can’t control this team and step up with the clutch plays at the death. Williams is a more than capable player and could take an opportunity with both hands if he is afforded one.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Where they need to improve
Holding their nerve and closing out games. The Raiders were third in attack in 2017 but all the way down in tenth for defence. They could get right into games of football and often stay in them with their high-scoring brand of football.
Countless times the Raiders were right in games they could have and should have won. It is not all down to Sezer or Austin to come up with big plays either.
The aforementioned loss against the Panthers was just one example. They were pipped in Round 1 by the Cowboys in golden point. They backed that up in Brisbane weeks later with a one-point loss. They lost not once but twice to Manly in golden point.
It was a case of once bitten, perpetually shy for the Raiders. They could build up matchwinning leads, as they did against the Panthers on two occasions, or they could work their way back into the match with some breathtaking attack. But a penalty, dropped ball, missed tackle or poor end to the set cost them more times than they would like to think about.
The Raiders were all guilty of it at different stages, and it will be a team effort to turn things around. It was a testament to them to be in so many games of football but difficult for their confidence to be denied almost every time.
Their attack needs no improvement – to come top three in that department shows why they’ll again be in the mix this season – but defensively and especially in crucial moments they need to come up with bigger and better efforts.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Top five clashes
Round 4: Sea Eagles versus Raiders – Lottloland, 31 March
The two clashes between these sides last year were enthralling and at times spiteful. Dylan Walker sunk the Raiders in Canberra amidst some serious sledging over his earlier shockers. Daly Cherry-Evans would break the Raiders hearts at Lottoland later in the season. Neither side will have forgotten what went down in 2017.
Round 6: Raiders versus Eels – GIO Stadium, 14 April
Two of the most exciting backlines go head to head in the nation’s capital. Parramatta are coming off a top-four season, the Raiders will have top-four aspirations of their own. It should be an entertaining and high scoring evening.
Round 10: Raiders versus Sharks – GIO Stadium, 13 May
The Sharks have had the wood over the Raiders in recent times. Canberra’s biggest loss of 2017 was against the Sharkies early in the season, an early indicator that maybe they weren’t the team that they had been in 2016. They’ll be eager to peg on back over the 2016 premiers.
Round 21: Panthers versus Raiders – Panthers Stadium, 5 August
The Panthers got the Raiders in Bathurst and Canberra last year. Their win at GIO would knock Canberra out of the finals race, returning the favour after the Raiders ended their season in 2016. What will this game mean for two of the competition’s most enigmatic teams late in the season?
Round 23: Raiders versus Roosters – GIO Stadium, 19 August
Will the Raiders be playing the premiers in waiting? At this stage many have the Roosters pegged for premiership glory in 2018. If Canberra are going to be in September, they’ll need to at least be competitive against the Roosters.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
How will they go?
The Raiders are a hard team to judge. You sense that 2017 could very well have been an anomaly. Looking back over their games, you realise just how close they were each and every week. They lost by six or less on eight occasions. They were in more games only for teams to run in last-minute tries to blow out the score.
You can’t discount a team like that for 2018. It is extremely hard to get confidence and composure in a team that loses in such hard circumstances on the run. With a full off-season they can turn it around.
The key is overcoming the loss of Hodgson. He has been immense for them over two seasons, particularly in 2016 when they finished second. I don’t know that Sezer can step up and lead this team.
While they have the likes of Cotric, Rapana, Leilua and Croker this team will be scoring plenty of points. But that only did so much last year.
There are also some questions over depth. Canberra have had a fairly good run with injury over the last season or two, but if that changes, do they have the personnel?
All in all it is assured that Canberra will be in the logjam until deep in the season. They have too many points in them to not win games. They are a team that, when they put it together, are among the most exciting to watch in the competition.
They will need the likes of Jarrod Croker to stand up and lead this team. This is very much the team Ricky wants, and if he can’t get this side to the finals for the second year running, questions should be asked. The Raiders will bounce back and charge into September as a dark horse.
Predicted finish: sixth
Big Dog
Guest
The Raiders are a moneyball team, by that i mean they are team that a are sum of their separate players that don't rely heavily on big names stars. When they clicked in 2016 they were very exciting and near unstoppable, but, it went the other way and as they collectively lost confidence in 2017 they became woeful, and thats no understatement, i've never been more shellshocked by an Footy match than that of that Penrith game, could hardly talk after that. Even the beginnings of 2017 had great signs, that first match against the Cowboys echoed those amazing games with the Cowboys against the Broncos from the previous years and i thought we had finally arrived. Too many cooks in the kitchen last year with our head chef, Hodgson, playing battered and injured. Blake Austin stifled us last year by somehow coming under the impression he was the next JT, just run the ball, thats what your good at. I feel like we might be right this year, with that dose of reality last year, hopefully Austin will take a step back and let Sezer run the game, and i hope he runs a simple game in just getting the ball to our talented outside backs. Im predicting from 10th to 2nd and back to 10th again and now back to 2nd BIG DOG WOOF WOOF
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
Wouldn't have tipped Manly that night. Was more than happy for them to get the win the way the Raiders carried on when Walker missed the conversion and again when he kicked for the win. They wouldn't have shown that disrespect to JT. Probably an example of the Raiders really not being in the right headspace at key times
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
Happens sometimes when a team comes into a preliminary final one year and then has to learn how to start again, get back into the grind. Melbourne are so good at building because they have done it so many times. For many of the Raiders players it was their first finals series, biggest games of their career. They probably went into 2017 thinking about that. Sometimes i think Ricky is a bit too emotional for his own good, yahooing on the sideline when the team gets up, rather than taking the Bellamy approach of quickly moving onto next week and keeping the lid on things.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
I can see it going either way. The loss of Hodgson will cripple them and they'll struggle to stay in games without him. Or as Geoff says they will keep on keeping on. Hodgson was definitely down on his 2016 form. The key to recovery for 2018 is getting their defence right.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
In his last 24 games for the Raiders Sam Williams has had 20 try assists and 4 tries. In Sezer's last 24 games for Canberra he has 8 try assists and 4 tries. Sezer is nearly 50 games into his stint at Canberra and he has mostly been disappointing. Sure, Williams isn't going to be winning the Dally M halfback. But his numbers more than show that he creates enough to put pressure on Sezer to either do better, or be demoted. The value that Williams creates is a bit of competition for spots. I wouldn't be assuring Sezer another season at halfback if they have an option there that can do a better job. Their is a shortage of quality organising and kicking half's. NSW can't find one and they don't have to worry about recruitment. It's the reason Cleary and Taylor are attracting such big money at such a young age. Ricky has to make do.
Jack Aubrey
Roar Guru
They haven't improved much in terms of their squad. But we are talking about some real minor improvement from their existing squad in order to bag some more close wins. They looked tired of losing at the death last year, like their belief had been shaken. I might live to regret putting Souths in the 8...
Badger
Guest
Good article but 8th place is prob more accurate...they should just scrape into the finals. The Raiders over-achieved in 2016 and couldn't handle the extra scrutiny in 2017. Don't really have any real superstars, more a team of similar style players who occasionally lift. Stuart has done a reasonable job to keep them competitive.
uglykiwi
Roar Pro
The problem is that they spent too much time on defense training!!! What are the raiders good at............. scoring points. BANG!! score more points than the opposition and guess what... YOU win the game. But no team has ever improved after season 2 with Ricky in charge. RICKY relax!!! let the boys play footy, let them off the leash and if you do, you will see a new team this year. BUT will Ricky do this............... probably not and there lies the issue. Raiders will finish bottom 2-4 if Ricky doesnt take the hand brake off........... but if he does..... then top 4 finish. How good would the Raiders be with the WALKER brothers as the joint coaches!!!!
Nat
Roar Guru
I think you can throw Austin in there as well. After a breakout season 2 things happen: 1, the player believes they have to do everything again but better and tend to try too hard in doing so. 2, Opposition teams focus on them and restrict what they do. I believe both were guilty of this last year. BJ to a lesser extent as well but he's always been able to pull off some freaky things it's just a matter of knowing when to do so.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Jack, You have listed Sam Williams as one the Raiders 2 key players; that headline in itself is a major concern. He is a “borderline” NRL rated player at best which is simply not good enough to claim the Generals badge. The challenges are much deeper from my perspective and start with poor recruitment and key position players out of their best positions. Developing a winning club culture is a direct link to recruiting and many clubs only focus on a players talents and if he can create value within the club. Even if a club gets their recruitment right, the next challenge is to select their best 13 in their best positions that compliments the coach’s plan. Jack Wighton is a massive talent but he is not a fullback, and for one of the best organising and tactically kicking half’s I have ever seen, Ricky Stuart should know what it takes to find an on field General, but to date his best organiser is his injured hooker.
Conan of Cooma
Roar Rookie
No premiership while Ricky is there, that's a guarantee. He takes the lead out of the gates but stumbles halfway through the race. It has happened with all his coaching jobs.
the Shafe
Guest
Raiders 6th?? Not that far fetched perhaps, yet a challenge as they don't appear to have improved much on their 2017 squad with both the players and coach looking 'tired'. I'm interested to see who you have missing out in order for them (and Souths) to make the 8.
RandyM
Guest
Hodgson wasn't that great for the Raiders in 2017. He was phenomenal in 2016 but last season I felt he often stifled our attack and was becoming very predictable. The Raiders are still stronger with him than without.
Greg Ambrose
Guest
One moment had a fairly big impact on the 2017 season for a couple of clubs I reckon. Manly went down to Viking Village to play the biggest team I've ever seen. I wasn't sure how we could win. Api , our hooker led the way with some devastating shock trooper style defence on these giant forwards. One tackle on Boyd is the best tackle I've ever seen. He dismantled him with a brutal low tackle which I believe won us the game and seemingly left Boyd injured for the game and perhaps the season.
souvalis
Guest
Junior got the club player of the year in ‘17,doubt he’s the one not performing.If you’re looking to point the finger anywhere I’d start at the ineffective spine..just not top tier level.. As for individuals Ricky needs to work more with Tapine.He is such a big skillful footballer..but plays wild and immaturely... And secondly BJ...from the sublime to the shaizenhausen in 12 months..one more season like that and this time next year he may well be playing in Wollongong....for Hull. If they’re not in the leading group after the first 8 weeks,considering who they’re drawn to play..the head coach will need darn,good answers..
Joe
Roar Rookie
I guess we'll find out this year whether 2016 or 2017 was the anomaly year. I think it was last year for the reasons you've listed and also I think they were too as Greg Ambrose mentions in a hurry to get to the finals. I think after the great 2016 season and the way it ended, them having pretty much the same team they were looking ahead way too early and not concentrating on their performances each week. They definitely have the points in them so if Ricky is working on the defense than hopefully that should resolve some of their issues. Also I think a big part was the non-performance of Shannon Boyd who seems to have injury issues. He was outstanding in 2016 on his way to picking up a Roos jumper.
jeff dustby
Guest
Raiders fans will look back at those 8 weeks in 2016 when they were relevant and sigh
Greg Ambrose
Guest
The general persona of the team last year seemed to be too hyped up rather than the cool calm Storm for example. It almost seemed like they were in a hurry for grand final day to come along. Thousands of Vikings in the stands baying for blood and heads on the end of a stick and a team full of angry giants needs to be replaced by some cool clinical performances. That's where Ricky comes in to the picture in 18 but where was his experience and wisdom in 17?
Glenn
Guest
Raiders biggest problem is fitness imo particularly in the forwards. Therefor they cannot make effort on effort to stop their opponents getting back into the match. Case in point Junior Paulo played at 120kg at Parra but has ballooned out to 130kg at Raiders.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
At least they have recognised what they need to do to improve. To fix a problem you firstly have to recognise that you have a problem. The loss of Hodgson may actually simplify things a bit as it looked like a case of too many cooks last season when games were on the line. Don't want to bag Hodgson too much as he is a great player but he took some poor options last season which cost them some games. Having some young enthusiastic hookers who stick to the script may actually be a benefit.