Extinguishing the outside noise regarding St Kilda’s lacklustre 2017 campaign and mystery surrounding its 2018 potential will be St Kilda’s biggest mountain to climb this year.
As if just missing September action by a whisker two years in a row was hard enough; Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and Sean Dempster have all pulled the plug on their decorated careers.
Over to you, youth and hope.
It’s possible that the Saints overperformed in 2016 – missing the finals by percentage alone – which gave many people false hope about their 2017 prospects.
But they were still good enough, once sitting seventh with a 9-6 record (equal with the Tigers), especially looking back at the Round 16 blitzing of eventual premiers Richmond.
The Tigers’ solitary goal in the first half was a far cry from St Kilda’s 14, with the Saints dominating and leading by 82 points at that stage.
It was scintillating, their best football of the season, but their September pursuit slowly tumbled from that moment.
St Kilda registered just two more wins for the remainder of the season, finishing with a percentage of 83 across the final seven home-and-away matches.
With the difference between their best and worst evidently stark, it leaves the Saints as one of the most intriguing sides coming into 2018.
Statistically they could have performed better – the Saints ranked 17th in the competition for goal kicking accuracy, while in scores per inside 50 they were third.
Should’ve, would’ve, could’ve. The fact is we can make a case like this for most teams in the competition.
In hindsight, it’s clear what the Saints lacked.
For many pundits, a team’s season and premiership hopes could depend on the amount of A-graders they have on their lists.
And it is this informal categorisation that could be at the forefront of St Kilda’s problems.
In fact, according to the 2018 AFL Prospectus, Jack Sinclair is the only ‘elite’ player on the St Kilda list, ranked as the number one wingman in the competition according to Champion Data’s formula.
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Outside of Jack Steven, the Saints clearly lack pace and drive through the middle of the park.
It’s fair to say that Seb Ross had a career-best season after averaging nearly 30 disposals per game and ranking sixth in the competition in that category.
But he doesn’t impact games as much as he could, given his elite ball-winning ability.
Lacking explosiveness, Ross had the sixth-worst clearance differential of the top-50 midfielders in the AFL for centre bounce attendance, while he rates below the competition average for overall pressure according to Champion Data.
Saints coach Alan Richardson quashed suggestions his side lacks A-grade talent and, according to AFL.com.au, is adamant that a host of his players will take the next step in their careers this season.
“There’s been a fair bit of talk about the no A-graders about our list … all I would say to that is ‘yet’,” Richardson told the AFL website.
“We wouldn’t have spoken about Ross or (Dylan) Roberton the year before as blokes who could have a real influence on the game and they were in the All Australian conversation.
“We’ve got the talent there and that’s our job as coaches, to get them to maximise their potential.”
A lot of St Kilda’s aspirations could potentially depend on whether luckless midfielder Nathan Freeman can finally make his AFL debut. From all reports, Freeman is putting together a strong pre-season campaign and impressed during the club’s intra-club match.
2017 first-round draft pick duo Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield also have the very attributes the Saints could utilise and unleashing them into the middle of the ground could be a hidden ace up Richardson’s sleeve. But they do come in with zero experience.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
“When that happens will be up to them really (playing in the midfield) … our want is to give them a run and expose them to some footy in the JLT games,” Richardson said.
“Our fans are going to like watching them play. They’ve been exciting through pre-season so far.”
With Riewoldt gone, the onus is on Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey to have a big aerial impact in the forward half, while Paddy McCartin will clearly have a lot of pressure after failing to break out thus far in his short career.
But it’s no worries, with Richardson confident all three players have the attributes to take the next step and form a formidable forward line trio.
“We all know he (McCartin) needs a little bit of luck now, but we think he’s got himself in really good shape and he’s doing everything right,” he said
“We have two big forwards in Bruce and Paddy and Membrey is a bit of both.
“That gives us some real flexibility and we’re getting some real depth with our small forwards.
“I like the way that’s come together and it has the potential to be a real powerful part of our set-up.”
It’s clear the Saints are confident with their chances of featuring in September. With natural improvement to come from players such as Jack Newnes, Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings, Jack Steele, Blake Acres, Luke Dunstan and Jade Gresham, it’s obvious there is enough talent to cause plenty of sides headaches throughout the season.
There’s a lot of questions, but St Kilda’s best 22 is a very good 22.
They also begin the season with interesting matches, facing North Melbourne in Round 2, hosting Adelaide in Round 3, travelling to Geelong in Round 4 and to Tasmania in Round 6 to tackle the Hawks.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
The Saints have only won two of their past eight matches against North, with both of those wins coming during a 2017 North fans would like to forget.
They have failed to register a win against the Crows seven outings in a row, while they have beaten Geelong just once in their past eight encounters.
The Round 4 clash will be played at the new-look GMHBA Stadium and the Saints haven’t won in Geelong since 1999.
Then they travel to Tasmania in Round 6 to face a Hawthorn side that has had no troubles discarding the Saints nearly 86 per cent of the time since 2011.
It shows that, coming into his fifth season at the helm, Richardson faces an uphill battle in a year where his side’s football desperately needs to start doing the talking.
Can the players making up the second youngest side in terms of games played in the AFL take the next step in their careers and fill a salient void left by three St Kilda greats? If so, they’re finals bound.
prince igor
Guest
Im with you the Saints in their usual hisotrical postiton in the bottom half of the ladder.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
I was annoyed at Port for letting Austin go, this bloke will be a champion fullback if he gets a shot, unfortunately Clurey, Hombsch, Jonas and now Howard have moved in front of him, only due to injury though, he was the first choice FB for about half a season prior to that. The saints need to find a way to have him and Carlisle in the same team, I think he's one of the steals of the trade period. I would rate Steven, Carlisle, Roberton and Billings as the saints elite talent, all four of those guys are Jets, Membray and Bruce are good forwards who can kick a few and now with Austin there the spine looks pretty handy. The Saints are a decent side, I'll back them to finish 7th or 8th if they can get Mcartin to fire.
Sam Aldridge
Roar Pro
Like most Saints supporters, I was waiting for a big name to be signed in the Trade Period and Logan Austin had me scratching my head. Don't get me wrong, Austin will add to our Tall Defender depth but wasn't the outside pace I expected us to make priority number one. It will be interesting to see how the Saints balance being in finals contention while putting time into McCartin, Battle, Clark, Coffield, and Long. I'm expecting a 9th - 12th finish with an aggressive recruitment drive behind the scenes.
Luke
Guest
Fair article. However, I think people need to look a individual players rather than the group as a whole. Sinclair - regarded as elite from champion data (no he is not an 'A' grader right now but there is plenty of upside in his ability and he has improved year on year Gresham - had over 60 shots on goal as a second year player if that doesn't scream elite for a second year player I don't know what does. Billings - Bloke has class written all over him, had games where he absolutely dominated racking up 25-30 and kicking multiple goals a game. If he kicked straight last year he would've been All Australian 23.36 + a few out on the full. Steele - The man is a beast loves the rough stuff is top 3 in the AFL for pressure acts. 2017 was his first full AFL season is in line to breakout this year. His game against Eagles the stand out 26 possessions 2 goals 20 contested 12 tackles. Roberton - Off Half back would have been in the top 8 in the league. Gets plenty of the footy likes to run with it and is a long booming kick. Is he A grade perhaps just off the mark. I will also concede going forward saints need someone to breakout off HB soon whether that is Paton, White, McKenzie someone needs to put their hand up. Ross - gets plenty of it is class uses the ball well but how effective is he? Could be A grade certainly has the right qualities to become that player. Membrey - 82 goals from 37 games is pretty promising don't you think? Imagine if the saints improve again delivering more and serviceable inside 50's. Acres - Did anyone see this bloke move at AFLX. Again, similar to Sinclair he has improved year on year was involved in a few important plays last year and kicked a few vital goals. Expect to see him playing that Bontempelli role where he spends time in the guts and up forward needs to improve his kicking but I can see A grade talent there. Steven - dropped off last year had some niggles however, I don't think anyone is expecting him to decline. Ball magnet, good run and penetration can kick a goal. Newnes, Dunstan, Savage, Webster aren't A graders but they are blocks which you can build a team around. Lastly, I will mention the potential of 2 top 10 picks in Clark & Coffield again they aren't A graders but the potential is certainly there. With the Saints in a strong position to lure a free agent at seasons end I think in 2019 they will have enough class and polish to be a contender...
Don Freo
Guest
I'm there too, Trevor. Melbourne will be up there. I don't get why so many keep The Saints hovering around contention. They have just had 2 of their stars retire and have replaced them with other club cast offs. They'll be making up the numbers. Alan Richardson has had a charmed run with the critics.
me too
Guest
Biggest statistical change for the saints from 2016 to 2017 was goal kicking accuracy. fix that and they're in with a good chance of making the eight. But the saints sights are set on contending for top four by 2020 - to do so we need star power (calisle aside) - in total agreement on the critcisms of seb ross - i see him as a B+ type player. What we have got is real evenness across the park, but do need some or all of billings, dunstan, greshman, acres, and sinclair to become A graders - along with Steven, Carlisle, and Roberton, they seem the only real candidates. If McCartin can deliver half as much as we'd initially hoped it will allow Bruce to play a chf role and relieve a fair bit of pressure. Ruck is a worry as Longer is useless around the ground and Hickey had a great 2016, but has gone horribly backwards since.
Cat
Roar Guru
If you look at his reply in reference to my earlier one, I think it becomes quite obvious Harry meant finish in the 10-14 range.
mattyb
Guest
Haha Paul,bit harsh on Schache but probably not to far off,I can understand why you'd be aggrieved. Plenty of people a the dogs not overly sure about the pick up,especially when we got rid of a player with a questionable attitude only to bring in another who does. The low quality of that draft year lowers eyebrows slightly,but still. Don't be to harsh on the Lions here,plenty of high draft picks don't make it or only become serviceable,while plenty of lower picks and even rookies become stars.
JamesH
Roar Guru
How are they going to play 24 matches?!?!? Make the top 4 with just 10 wins and then go out in straight sets?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Short answer - no. Not enough class on the list, and McCartin's ongoing concussion issues have really stuffed them, I'm not sure he's ever going to be a force in AFL and when you spend pick 1 on a non-entity, well, that burns. Burns almost as much as blowing pick 2 on someone who is apparently dead keen to follow in his dad's footsteps, but turns out he just wants to follow mummy around and hold onto her skirt.
Trevor
Guest
Melbourne could win the lot, the Saints will probably be fighting for the spoon. No contest really.
TomC
Roar Guru
I find it hard to look at the Saints' list and identify the players that are really going to drive them up the ladder in the next few years. Billings is an obvious one. Dunstan looks likely. Acres and Gresham maybe. There are plenty of useful players; Membrey is underrated, Ross is reasonable at what he does but no superstar, Longer is a serviceable ruckman. It's just hard to imagine a team built around the names they currently have on their list winning a premiership. But honestly that was true for Richmond as recently as a year ago.
Harsh Truth Harry
Roar Rookie
The short answer is no. For once in my life I agree with Cat. 10-14 for the Saints, a bit of a nothing list now like the once great Hawks.
Cat
Roar Guru
I can't see Saints playing finals. I think they will finish in the 10-12 range.
Reservoir Animal
Guest
The big question- who will go further this year out of Melbourne and St Kilda?