Brisbane were a popular wooden spoon pick last season, and so it proved to be. They won five games and had the lowest percentage in the competition.
But North Melbourne, Carlton and Gold Coast won six games each, which was only one more than the Lions. Fremantle won eight, but finished with a percentage only a fraction higher than Brisbane’s 74.31.
The Lions were around the mark with those in the lower tier.
And there were some signs of brightness in the second half of the year, as they picked up four wins and pushed middle-class sides like Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
It’s always a good sign when a young side is on an upward curve to end a season.
B: Darcy Gardiner Daniel McStay Sam Mayes
HB: Alex Witherden Harris Andrews Luke Hodge
C: Charlie Cameron Dayne Zorko Daniel Rich
HF: Lewis Taylor Ryan Lester Allen Christensen
F: Jake Barrett Eric Hipwood Cameron Rayner
Foll: Stef Martin Mitch Robinson Dayne Beams
Int: Ryan Bastinac Nick Robertson Hugh McCluggage Rhys Mathieson
Em: Jarrod Berry Ben Keays Tom Cutler
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There’s some talent in this team, and enough reason to believe they will improve in 2018.
Tom Rockliff is a big loss from last season, but even then he was playing injured in the second half of the year and didn’t have his usual impact. To compensate, Brisbane has gained Luke Hodge, Charlie Cameron and pick one Cameron Rayner. They also effectively added Allen Christensen, who didn’t play last year, and former best and fairest winner Mitch Robinson, who only played seven games.
In fact, one of the biggest challenges for the Lions is to get all of their imports on the field and keep them there. It’s been a problem for too long.
Since arriving at Brisbane, skipper Dayne Beams has missed 29 games in three years. Robinson missed the final 15 last year. Christensen has only played 11 in the last two seasons. Tom Bell has played only 20 games in two years, having battled form as well as injury.
Getting all of these guys together playing means they can share the responsibility that comes with being a senior player, and let the more inexperienced members of the side narrow their focus, rather than having to over-contribute when they’re not ready.
The back six has a solid enough look about it, particularly with Hodge down there to steer the ship as captain of the backline. Coach Chris Fagan will no doubt be looking for about 16 games from the erstwhile Hawthorn champion.
Luke Hodge (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Harris Andrews is one of the most talented tall backmen in the game, and each year finds a better balance between defence and attack. Daniel McStay has been groomed as the second tall down there, and has now clicked past that 50-game mark that coaches tell us is so important when a player is learning how to play at AFL standard.
Sam Mayes finally put together a consistent season befitting his talent, playing exclusively in the backline after being a victim of playing all areas of the field in his formative years on the list. Darcy Gardiner is the third tall, but may be usurped by a fit Marco Paparone if the latter can ever get his body right. Yet another tale of medical woe.
Alex Witherden came into the side in the second half of the year, and ended up ranking fourth at the Lions for disposals per game. His future looks bright, but there shouldn’t be too much pressure put on a second-year teenager.
Brisbane’s midfield has a complementary mix about it, with Daynes Zorko and Beams as the primary ball-winners who are just as home on the inside as outside. Both know where the goals are too, which means they’re ever dangerous in the front half of the ground. They’re a duo that can absolutely be built around.
Robinson is the cannonball, and guys like Nick Robertson and Rhys Mathieson will offer inside support and a hard edge. Kids like Hugh McCluggage will get a chance through there too. Stef Martin adds an extra clearance player when he’s in the ruck, using his big body to mobile and rugged effect in the clinches.
Charlie Cameron should see some genuine midfield time, more than he did at the Crows. He’s more than just a goal-sneak, and can add some creativity and pressure around the ball. He needs to become more prolific though; the more the leather is in his hands, the better Brisbane will be. Daniel Rich can do his thing out wide with plenty of players to feed it out to him.
The Lions aren’t over-endowed with talls up forward, so perhaps they’ll follow Richmond’s lead and go with a smaller set-up. Eric Hipwood can be the lone tall – he’s rangy and athletic, capable of Buddy-like special moments. Fagan could do worse than let him roam, and rotate plenty of guys around him, seeing if they can cause unrest against the more traditional defences.
Christensen will need time to work into the season after so long out of the game; we are yet to see his best up north, and can only hope that he hasn’t forgotten how good he can be. Lewis Taylor, Ryan Bastinac and Jake Barrett all took steps last year, in their various ways, and might be able to again.
All eyes will be on Cameron Rayner, to see if he can live up to the hype of being the number one draft pick. We’ve been promised glimpses of something special, and Dusty-like attributes.
Lions head coach Chris Fagan poses with Cameron Rayner. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Brisbane have enough there to be optimistic about, but their history of injuries to so many senior players makes it hard to think they can all get through unscathed. There’s still a few list-cloggers that will get games when the depth gets tested, and that’s when things will fall away sharply.
Lions fans will have to grit their teeth in the first half of the season again, with a particularly tough opening first four rounds, but their draw opens up in the second half of the year. After 30-odd games to adapt to Fagan’s gameplan by then, they should be able to reap some rewards.
Avoiding back-to-back wooden spoons should be an overarching objective this season. Anything around the six-or-seven-win mark is a pass, and they could even sneak one or two more than that if things go their way.
Prediction – 16th
Cam Rose ladder prediction
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton18. Gold Coast Suns
Shannon Davies
Guest
your a goose so far can not imagine any improvement in your further "predictions" typical victorian who only reads one newspaper and cannot see past murray
Paul D
Roar Guru
Still in pre-season training. The christmas guts are slowly receding
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I've always steered clear of writing his name properly before as I've seen others doing it in various unconventional ways, but just for an experiment I thought I'd write it in this post...and wow..yep F-agan written properly gets your post moderated for a fair while. I guess this is too hard to fix in the moderating bot?
Cameron Rose
Expert
This made me laugh.
1DER
Guest
Solid analysis Cam. Brisbane is coming from a long way back in the field and this could be a defining year for them. With the inclusion of Hodge they have got to identify who are going to be the core group of defenders that they will run with for the next 2-3 years. The likes of Bell, Claye Beams, Bewick and Frost will not be on the list next year, and Archie Smith / McInerney must be given every opportunity this year to progress as Stef will probably be gone in 2-3 years. The Lions are definitely the worst contested team in the competition with Beams, Rockcliff, Zorko and Martin the only midfielder to meet the grade. The next level is not in the picture with regard to pressure probably due to young list and game plan. Here's hoping for 3-4 of the young brigade to make giant steps in their development this year.
Mattician6x6
Guest
Slane- a older bloke to relay the coaches message and also be eyes at ground level to relay back to the young guys what needs to be worked on could be invaluable to BL development.
Ditto
Guest
If Brisbane get some improvement across the board, they may get some bankable home ground advantage. This will increase their winnable games ratio. I just think that of the teams down the bottom they can get something of a run on at some stage of the season, which will give them some separation at the end of it. It's a stretch, but I'm pegging them 13th.
RM
Guest
If it were a team pushing to make the top 4 or even the 8 I'd agree with you Slane - but there really wasn't anything to lose for the Lions in this case. Best case scenario he still plays well, marshalls the backline and is an on-field coach for young players like Andrews and the Lions pick up a few extra wins this season. Worst case scenario - he doesn't have what it takes anymore on the field and has to be replaced in the starting lineup with a younger player. So what? It's just where we would have been anyway. But Hodge would still provide a good example to the younger players off-field and on the training paddock. Plus this off-season has been a win for the Lions - having a legend like Hodge in the club has created plenty of good press and as others have said if it's true that he has helped in the re-signing of some of young players then he has already made a huge positive difference for the Lions, considering some of the past issues with young players looking for the door as soon as possible.
Slane
Guest
Not playing any of those delisted players sounds like an improvement to me.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
It'll be really interesting to see how they go this year with another year under Fagan. It just feels like he's got a lot more clean air to coach in compared to Leppitsch or even Voss. He seems to feel really comfortable in the role and being a self-professed teaching/relationships type coach, along with his tactical nous, the improvement in the team is likely to be exponential the longer he's got them for. I get the feeling that it's going to take off sooner rather than later. If they can get a roll on and build some confidence they could really grab some scalps this year.
Macca
Guest
Good get for your crew Paul - has the masters pre-season progressed beyond a few beers watching the young blokes go 'round yet?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Andrew Swallow has definitely improved the list of Aspley Hornets!
Macca
Guest
These are the player North delisted over the summer OUT Andrew Swallow (retired) Lindsay Thomas (delisted) Lachie Hansen (delisted) Will Fordham (delisted) Matt Taylor (delisted) Sam Gibson (trade, Adelaide) Aaron Mullett (delisted) Corey Wagner (delisted) Swallow played 16 games last year, Thomas 9, Hansen 13, Gibson 22 & Mullett 18 - these players were replaced with 1 first round pick, 1 second round pick, 1 fourth round pick, 2 fifth round picks and 2 rookies. I think it is fair to say North's list didn't improve over the summer.
Tom M
Guest
Their last truly A grade player was Carey.
Macca
Guest
True but those top 10 aren't very accurate - J Silvagni makes an appearance for the blues and some (not me) have him fighting to hold a spot in the 22.
Tom M
Guest
All three of those top ten players you have listed are extremely weak. Says a lot about why they are at the bottom. I doubt North Melbournes top 10 players looks any better. Compare this to Say Richmonds top 10 players: Martin Rance Reiwoldt Cotchin Vlaustin Nank Houli Edwards Prestia Grigg
Macca
Guest
George I didn't include them because I was looking long term at players u23. If we are looking at all these side wanting to play finals in 2020 May will be 28 and Lynch 27 by then while Cripps will be just 25 with Weitering and Curnow 22 and the Lions players will be in a similar boat - that sets the Blues and lions up for possibly a decade of consistent finals while the Suns might get just a few years. Throw in that the Suns mids while looking like they will be a very talented bunch might be a year behind the other 2 which again shortens their possible period of dominance. In short I can see the blues and lions more likely to be top 4 for multiple years and the Suns more likely to be consistently mid table.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Nothing like the Roar for a bit of dose of reality. Thanks Cam for your article. While I don't agree with your rankings so far, (I've got North last, Suns second last- back to topic) I certainly see you've made some good points. As a Long Term Lions supporter, I was quite happy and quietly confident in our improvement over the off-season.....But then reading the comments on here, especially from guys like Tom & Paul who are close to it, I feel that confidence slightly dented..... I think Hodge is a very solid recruit for our purpose. I actually think towards the end of last season his form was quite good. I don't have any serious belief that's he's going to be a week in week out player, but he's going to play around 40-50% of games and is going to educate our half back flankers. One who I think has been a little undersold especially by GCSF is Bundy Christensen. This kid is a jet. He's had a couple of ordinary years taken away due to constant injuries! I'm really hopeful he's going to break that mould this year and is going to be a huge player for us. Josh Walker is another who I think has really turned the corner. He certainly been much maligned since joining the Lions but his last month of last season was very strong! I think he can have a big impact for the Lions. I don't for a minute believe we going to be fighting for a Finals spot this year, but I do feel we are certainly going to be surprise a few teams this year. I hope Chris the coach continues with his aggressive offensive game plan. As it's certainly easier to watch in a rebuilding phase than some other sides that we share the lower ranks of the table with right now.
George
Guest
Yep, Martin probably in but not so sure about Rich - most of his career unfulfilled potential, got better under Fagan last year. Still remember last season against Hawks when Rich did not even bother to tackle a player passing right by him and Fagan had to do some explaining at press conference.
George
Guest
So you decided May (25) and Lynch (26) don't count because they are in their prime and over 23? Or because they will be gone next year? Don't follow. Here is a future real stand out at HB for Suns - Scrimshaw. Also watch Brodie, Bowes, Ainsworth this year as main candidates for future elite midfielders. All in their second year. Just give it 1-2 more years.