Five fearless predictions for the 2018 NRL season

With the 2018 NRL season kicking off this Thursday, it’s time for the most unforgiving article I write all year. The one that regularly makes me look foolish come October – and quite often, a lot sooner!

Despite this, it’s also my most enjoyable piece to write, and generally the one taken in the best spirit by Roarers. Unless, of course, I pick their team to win the wooden spoon, which generally results in that club’s fans not being quite so jovial.

Fear not though, there is no wooden spoon prediction this year. Yet, given my success rate over the years, fans of some of the below teams may have a more legitimate reason to be upset with me.

1. The Roosters will win the premiership
Many believe there is a clear top three this year, consisting of the Melbourne Storm, North Queensland Cowboys and Sydney Roosters. As such, it isn’t all that fearless to predict the Roosters as this year’s premiers.

However, this selection isn’t any more complex than this: I just think the Chooks will win. So I’m not overthinking my first prediction.

I was actually very impressed with the Tricolours last year, as I didn’t think they’d be that good. Throw in the additions of star recruits Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco, and anything less than a grand final berth will be considered a failure.

As great as Cronk is – and I expect him to have a massive impact on the club – it’s the signing of Tedesco that should catapult the club into outright favouritism.

‘Teddy’ often played a brilliant lone hand at the Tigers, but now that he’s surrounded by better – and smarter – players, it will provide him with even more opportunities to display his talents, which may take his game to the next level.

James Tedesco (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

2. The Dragons will make the top four
The Dragons could sneak up on plenty of teams this year.

James Graham might be the buy of the off-season. He provides leadership, ball-playing, intensity and plenty of go-forward – all things that St George Illawarra will benefit from.

While they overpaid for Ben Hunt, that doesn’t necessarily make him a bad signing. He’ll take plenty of pressure off Gareth Widdop, which will make the five-eighth even more dangerous – a scary thought for opponents.

Meanwhile, despite his talent, Josh Dugan could be an addition by subtraction, given his injuries, absence for rep duties, and occasional off-field distraction.

A good forward pack and quality halves go a long way in this comp. The lack of superstars in the backline may be of slight concern, but don’t sleep on the Dragons this year – they’ll be a surprise packet.

3. Manly and Parramatta won’t make the eight
“Here we go again, Manly and Parra…”

Except we’re not talking a grand final in a 1980s Tooheys ad, we’re talking not even making the finals in 2018. That’s right, I’m predicting that the Sea Eagles and Eels won’t make the top eight.

Both teams made the finals last year, and you could argue they’ve improved their respective rosters in the off-season. So how could they possibly be watching the business end of the season on TV, instead of playing in it?

My main rationale is that when you look at the NRL this year, some good teams are going to miss the top eight. It’s just the nature of the beast when you have good talent spread right across the competition. There are going to be some unforeseen underachievers.

Both teams also overachieved last year, which may heighten expectations unfairly this year. In fact, it has. So it wouldn’t shock me if Manly and Parramatta simply fail to live up to the hype.

Plus, when it comes to the Eels, someone has to ask: is signing Jarryd Hayne the best way to guarantee your team will underperform?

Jarryd Hayne (AAP Image/Dan Peled)

4. NSW will win the State of Origin series
The Blues should have won last year. They dominated Game 1, then choked with the series on a plate and ready to be won in Game 2. So, as great as Queensland are, NSW have certainly narrowed the gap.

The Blues also made some changes last year that may actually be more impactful and beneficial this year, with a couple of newer players all the better for receiving a serious taste of what Origin footy is all about.

This could be wishful thinking, as I still expect the Maroons’ class to shine through and earn them yet another series victory, but I’m also very quietly confident the Blues can win it this year.

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5. Mitchell Pearce will play 7 for NSW
This prediction would seem at odds with the previous one, given Pearce’s much-maligned and much-publicised record in Origin. That’s the same reason it’s fearless.

To think that the Blues will once again role the dice with Pearce seems utterly preposterous, but there are three reasons it’s a chance of happening again.

Firstly, Pearce is a very good first-grade halfback. If you don’t think that’s true, you actually don’t watch a lot of NRL. Out of the spotlight of Sydney, and given the co-captaincy with Newcastle, expect Pearce to have a great season for the Knights from the get-go, which means he’ll be in good form come Origin selection time, which could seduce selectors. Again.

Secondly, and more importantly, there simply aren’t a lot of options at 7 for the Blues. NSW could gamble and go inexperienced – and I’d argue they should – but it would still be a big call.

Lastly, though new coach Brad Fittler has put pressure on the incumbent halfback to keep his jersey by saying Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses are firmly in the selection frame, ‘Freddy’ remains somewhat of a Pearce fan.

So, unbelievably, this may not be that crazy a prediction.