Rightly or wrongly, AFL coaches tend to cop the lion’s share of the blame when their teams don’t perform. Which coaches are feeling the heat coming into 2018?
A quick look at the AFL’s senior coaches reveals that most clubs have their guy locked up for two years or more, and 2018 might be the first year in many where everyone gets to keep their job.
Still, some clubs are bound to fall below expectations, and pressure will come when they do.
18. Damien Hardwick
Out of contract: end of 2021
Hardwick is football’s happiest chap after taking the Tigers to the flag last year and signing an extension last week. Richmond fans will be writing him love letters for decades to come.
17. John Longmire
Out of contract: end of 2020
Although he has his critics, John Longmire has taken Sydney to finals seven years in a row, three grand finals and a premiership. Any club in the league would be happy with that track record.
16. Brendon Bolton
Out of contract: rolling contract
Bolton hasn’t put a foot wrong in his two years at Carlton and fans seem unanimously happy with the progress made so far.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
15. Stuart Dew
Out of contract: end of 2020
Gold Coast could probably go 0-22 this year and Dew would not come close to losing his job. Expectations, for now, are so low that he could not possibly fail to meet them.
14. Don Pyke
Out of contract: end of 2021
Has drawn a few critics as anyone who loses a grand final in such embarrassing fashion is certain to do, but when you look at what he’s achieved in two years, it’s hard not to be impressed.
13. Chris Fagan
Out of contract: end of 2019
Collected a wooden spoon in his first year, but Lions fans would still be happy with the progress made. The balance of fans’ patience versus the list’s potential improvement is strongly in his favour.
AAP Image/Dave Hunt
12. Ross Lyon
Out of contract: end of 2020
I’ve had my doubts about him at times – and I know I’m not alone – but Fremantle as a club don’t seem to. They’ll back him in even if it’s another poor year in 2018.
11. Ken Hinkley
Out of contract: end of 2021
12 months ago we were talking about him as maybe the first coach sacked in 2017, but he turned it around, took Port Adelaide to finals, and masterfully manipulated the club into giving him a lengthy contract extension.
Safe as houses, although expectations on the club’s performance coming into 2018 are extremely high both externally and internally.
10. Luke Beveridge
Out of contract: end of 2020
If you don’t have a photo of him and Bob Murphy on your wall with a shrine of candles underneath that you tend to daily, are you really even a Dogs fan?
2017 was disappointing, but he’s got plenty of credit in the bank.
AAP Image/Julian Smith
9. Alastair Clarkson
Out of contract: end of 2019
He and Jeff Kennett have butted heads in the past, but realistically it’d be one of the biggest stunners in years if the Hawks decided to move him on.
That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he leaves of his own volition when his current contract runs out in two years.
8. John Worsfold
Out of contract: end of 2018
Comes into this season as the only coach in the league to not already have a contract for 2019 locked away, and honestly, I’m a little surprised it’s not already done.
You can’t fault his first two years in charge at the Bombers though – expect an extension to be announced sooner rather than later.
7. Leon Cameron
Out of contract: end of 2020
The beneficiary of being at a club with less in the way of a vocal supporter base than most, Cameron has been criticised by some for the fact that the Giants are yet to deliver a flag.
Realistically though, most expectations on him are probably a bit unreasonable. Clubs don’t sack blokes who keep taking them to finals and Cameron shouldn’t have any trouble doing that again this year.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
6. Simon Goodwin
Out of contract: end of 2019
2017 was equal parts optimism and heartbreak – Goodwin delivered significant improvement, but Melbourne really should’ve played finals and didn’t.
Every man and his dog is tipping them to play finals this year, and odds are they will. They have the talent. But if they don’t, many will ask whether Goodwin is up to the job.
5. Chris Scott
Out of contract: end of 2019
He took over the Cats at an unusual time and took them to a premiership, and Scott has since done a fairly good job since, albeit without managing to get into another grand final.
With a trio of Gary Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, the Cats are clearly in win-now mode. They’re backing in Scott to be the guy who can deliver.
The Cats have kept their window open by continuing to load up with mature talent, but someday the well is going to run dry. Hard to say whether or not he’ll be given a chance to rebuild the list when that day comes, but he’s probably safe till then.
4. Alan Richardson
Out of contract: end of 2020
Richardson has impressed a lot during his four years coaching St Kilda, but the club went backwards for the first time under his tenure in 2017 after falling just narrowly short of finals the year before.
Few, if any, are predicting them to crack into finals this year as well, after the retirements of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna. The footy world has collectively gone cold on St Kilda’s potential.
We haven’t really seen their gameplan evolve and while they’ve often been busy at the trade table, most of the players acquired have significant limitations.
All things considered, a contract extension late last year was a significant show of faith from the club, and should stave off any threat of a sacking even if the Saints struggle in 2018.
3. Adam Simpson
Out of contract: end of 2019
Simpson inherited the Eagles at a somewhat awkward time – most new coaches come in looking to rebuild, but instead he took over a list that was fairly mature but not reaching its potential under a then-burnt-out John Worsfold.
In just two years he took them all the way to a grand final, but they copped an embarrassing loss on that day and haven’t delivered on expectations in either of the years that followed.
Most are predicting a slide down the ladder this year after cutting more experience than any other club last year and going from the oldest list in the league to 11th.
Their final preseason game on Sunday was an absolute debacle despite having a fairly strong side named, and with their two most important players Nic Naitanui and Josh J Kennedy both on the injury list, there’s plenty of reasons to be concerned about 2018.
Simpsons’s achievements with the Eagles have been impressive and he has probably earned the right to have a crack at rebuilding the club’s list. West Coast’s list management moves last year, though, painted a picture of a club that isn’t quite sure where it’s at, making it hard to predict how they will react if 2018 is a major disappointment.
The heat will definitely come at some point. How will they respond when it does?
West Coast Eagles coach Adam Simpson. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
2. Brad Scott
Out of contract: end of 2020
The usual lifecycle of an AFL coach is to be brought in when a team is at its lowest ebb, rebuild the playing list and see how far you can take it – usually to finals, hopefully a flag – then probably get moved on after that era ends.
That’s what makes Brad Scott’s situation a bit unusual.
He didn’t really come all that close to a flag, with a narrow half-time lead in a preliminary final in 2015 the best we’ve seen, and yet North appear to be backing him in for another turn.
Like Ken Hinkley, he signed a contract extension last year which seemed to be offered largely due to concern that he might be about to be poached by the Gold Coast Suns.
The extension obviously put to an end any chance of that happening, but has forced the club to back in their man at a time of great uncertainty.
While many of 2017’s bottom sides look ready to take steps forward this year, it’s hard to see the Roos doing anything better than treading water, with a step backwards ever more likely.
If that’s the case, expect talk about whether or not it was the right decision to extend Scott to heat up, and quickly.
Familiarity breeds contempt and fairly or unfairly, a lot of North fans are beginning to tire of Scott’s leadership. I’m on the fence myself.
Regardless of that, what’s done is done. The club probably have low expectations internally for the year and even a wooden spoon wouldn’t see them flip-flop on Scott’s extension.
(AAP Image/David Crosling)
1. Nathan Buckley
Out of contract: end of 2019
After a six-year tenure that has taken Collingwood from grand finalists in 2011 to well short of a finals berth in 2017, Nathan Buckley hung onto his job by the skin of his teeth last year.
He said before the season began that he expected he would lose his job if he failed to take the club to finals. The Pies did miss September, but Buckley was given a two-year extension regardless.
A deep club review was run late last year, which ultimately saw Buckley keep his job but a number of other changes were decided upon, including a significant reshuffling of the list management hierarchy.
It was also mooted that an ‘experienced mentor’ for Buckley should be recruited to the club (who is, by the way, more experienced than ten other senior coaches) – but this doesn’t seem to have materialised.
Whether or not Buckley can survive depends on what the internal expectation for 2018 is. If it’s ‘finals or bust’, he’s likely to be in trouble, with most predicting they’ll fall short again.
If expectations are more realistic, then Buckley probably only needs to coach his side to ten or so wins in order to stay in the hot seat for 2019.
Anything less than September action is certain to be met with a mountain of public criticism from fans and the media, and there’s no guarantee what kind of decision might be made as the pressure mounts.
Eddie McGuire would be acutely aware of the fact that Buckley’s contract runs out at the same time as when Alastair Clarkson may decide to finish up at Hawthorn.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Cheers. You're making me realise that I should probably watch more non-Freo games. I might be able to glean a bit more insight into how this footballing caper works.
Slane
Guest
Another great post, DKMAF. Further to what you've just written there are a multitude of teams that get lauded for having an 'attacking' gameplan despite the fact that their main avenue to goal is creating turnovers in their own backline. They set up structurally with extra players in the defensive 50(sometimes the entire team) and then try to create a turnover on their half-back line with an eye towards a rapier quick counter-attack. We end up with a 'defensive' team like Richmond whose bread and butter is a high-press and non-stop attack on the ball-carrier VS an 'attacking' team like Adelaide who set up across their own half-back line and wait for an intercept before their slick ball-movement cuts through their opponent.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
– greater priority on reducing opposition scoring than one’s own scoring – when moving ball forward take more conservative option to reduce turnover risk Thing is, both of these could be said to be principles underpinning Hawthorn's game plan 2013-2105. The best way to reduce opposition scoring is to maintain possession. If you've got the ball, the opposition can't score. The best way to maintain possession is to move the ball via short kicks to team mates in space / not under pressure. That's Hawthorn's game plan in a nutshell. By contrast, I'm not entirely convinced that the long kick down the boundary — which frequently results in a stoppage rather than possession, and which was a manifest feature of Freo's play 2012-2015 (all too often in the following seasons, too) — really counts as taking the conservative option to reduce turnover risk. The problem with all the talk about "defensive game plan" is that it's all too often used simply to say "not very high scoring". Hence appeals, such as Macca's above, to the "points for" column as "evidence" of a team's "defensive game plan". It's straight out tautological argument.
Macca
Guest
No, Malthouse didn't start the rebuild, he was like a DIY "expert" who starts a renovation only to find himself well out of his depth and has simply made things much worse and it ends up costing him thousands more than what it would have if he just got the professionals in in the first place. Malthouse simply put the whole process back a couple of years.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
This will the 5th year of the Carlton rebuild. It started with Malthouse! When will the expectations arise?
Mac Hawk
Guest
Nailed it...better than the scribe.
Matto
Guest
Donald cleary meant fyfe didnt vote freo wouldn't make finals. It's true he couldn't vote they would. Would be good if the auto mod deleted the silly arguments some of the regulars have over semantics.... Agree with you macca Bolton has done a nice job. Do you give him any credit for the players they draft and how they develop? Or you are happy just with the attitude/game style that showed last year?
Matto
Guest
Dockers have never "finished top". Restumped, rewired, injured elite superstars back.... still have a below average forward line and defence. You can cheer up tho Chuzy the midfield will get your lot into the 8. The midfield might be the best in the league once mundy retires mid season.
Macca
Guest
Ok Don, you are making even less sense than usual now, time to put down the keyboard and toddle off to bed. It must be exhausting maintaining your alternate reality, you really need your rest now.
johnboy
Guest
How come you always pop up ,like a twin brother ? or are you the same ? he is continually proved wrong but will not put his hand up ,you always arrive and have a crack.
Don Freo
Guest
Wow, that's compelling!
Macca
Guest
Oh Don, now I am really starting to worry I broke you. I am sorry, I should have realised such basic concepts were beyond your capacity to understand. Time for a bex and a good lie down and things will feel bette in the morning.
Don Freo
Guest
I thought you were on your way.
Don Freo
Guest
He's not right you know. We both agree Fyfey doesn't vote on Freo. Macca thinks the vote was about who is 'no chance'. He is wrong. There is no such question, poll or vote.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I see you've found an "h" along the way?
Macca
Guest
AD - thanks for agreeing with the obvious but I must say the argument wasn't pointless, the point was infuriating Don.
Macca
Guest
Oh so now it is my fault you got things backwards. On the thread that is there for all to see do you see quotation marks, that means it was a quote (actually from a headline from a Perth paper) and being a quote it is not my reading but theirs. It isn't my fault that you didn't do your research or then read any of my following posts clearly explaining things. I would have thought after all these times of being wrong, and me pointing it out to you, you would have got the hang of admitting it and apologising by now but I suppose you are a really slow learner.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Hahahaha, I never said it incited my fury? It's infuriating because it's like watching two parrots squark at each other over nothing, and it's hilarious due to the lengths both of you went to prove you were both right. For the record, Macca was right. But nonetheless, it was the world's most pointless argument.
johnboy
Guest
This bloke really needs help.
Don Freo
Guest
If it incites your fury, you'd be better to scroll past it or get anger management.