The Parramatta Eels will not win the Premiership in 2018.
Well… at least according to the statistics.
History tells us that in 109 years of rugby league in Australia, no team has won a first-grade grand final after conceding 50 points in a match during the season, and after the Eels’ 54-0 loss to the Manly Sea Eagles yesterday, I’m not sure that Parramatta have the ability to be the first team to do so.
Yesterday, I drove for over an hour to sit in 40-plus degree heat and watch my team lose by over 50 points. It doesn’t get much tougher as a fan than that.
But after two rounds of footy which have seen the Eels lose to the Panthers 24-14 and then to the Sea Eagles 54-0, I have more questions than answers.
I cannot put my finger on what is going wrong for Parramatta at the moment, but there are some deeply concerning signs.
Let’s start with ill discipline. Yesterday the Eels conceded 12 penalties. Most of these came very late in the tackle count, which made it exceptionally easy for Manly to make their way down the field, particularly with a forward pack that was absolutely dominant.
The Eels did not help themselves at all, seeing very little football in the first ten minutes after conceding a penalty from Manly’s first touch of the game. The Sea Eagles played clever footy which saw them get repeat sets, including a 40/20, and also get the footy back after scoring points.
In the heat, the Eels’ high defensive load took its toll. When the score was 18-0, the Eels had already made 69 tackles to Manly’s 14.
We can also talk about just really dumb football which saw the Eels bundled into touch on at least three occasions. Almost every time the Eels got the footy in the first half, they looked determined to make a stupid mistake or play silly football which gave possession straight back to the Sea Eagles, who were absolutely relentless in attack.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
It was also one of those afternoons when everything that could go wrong for Parramatta did. Cameron King went off after 60 minutes after suffering a sickening head knock and Mitchell Moses was sent to the sin bin for the second week in a row for backchat.
I asked social media for answers.
Some suggested the Eels looked unfit.
Others suggested that Jarryd Hayne and Moses had infected the Eels dressing shed with some sort of ‘poison’.
Then there were the usual accusations of no heart and no effort.
None of these reasons quite cut it for me.
Something that Peter Sterling said in the off-season has stuck with me: Parramatta should not have spent precious cap space on Jarryd Hayne, but should have instead bought forwards.
The more I watch the Eels, the more I agree.
Please don’t take this view as an attack on Jarryd Hayne.
I am more than comfortable with the decision to bring him back, but another back was not what Parramatta needed. We already have too many, including Kirisome Auv’a, Josh Hoffman, Will Smith, Bevan French and Clint Gutherson.
Even if we did need another back, we needed forwards more. I was reminded of this again when I saw the Eels forward pack getting absolutely dominated.
Incredibly, Jorge Taufua’s try in the 79th minute was the first from any of Manly’s backline, with five members of their pack crossing for four pointers, including a double for Curtis Sironen.
Parramatta simply could not match or keep up with the go-forward of the Sea Eagles.
I also fundamentally underestimated what a big loss Semi Radradra would be. I thought the squad could cover it, but this was naivete on my part.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
In 2017, Radradra scored 20 tries and would take on average 13 hit ups per game, making 146 running metres. He was effectively another forward. The Eels are really missing his go-forward and ability to produce something out of nothing this year.
Something needs to change and it needs to change quickly.
As a fan, I choose not to point fingers or play the blame game, but I will not tolerate another performance like that next week. It’s simply not good enough for a team that finished fourth last year and was tipped by many to go all the way this year.
There are still 23 rounds of football and I would be a much fickler fan if I wrote the Eels season off completely after two games.
After yesterday though, I am convinced that the footy gods are the cruellest gods of all.
It’s not been easy going as an Eels fan over the last 20 years.
Who would have thought that just one premiership was too much to ask?
If early signs are any indication, it won’t be the Eels year this year, but just like any good fan I’ll comfort myself in the knowledge that there’s always next year.
Malo
Guest
Radradra should have been an immortal, destroyed by the nrls decision to get rid of him.
Malo
Guest
Sooon to get the spoon. Forwards are slugs.
MrJSquishy
Roar Pro
Completely agree with point 4, slurpy. Hayne SHOULD have been a direct swap for Radradra. Hayne's best performances have always come from fullback (at club level) or on the wing (at representative level). He is a freak! Of that I have no doubt. But in the centre's you need to be a workhorse: good in defense and creative in attack. Hayne's biggest asset is his ability in broken play i.e. returning kicks, in support when a line break has been made. He is not a break maker, he is a finisher. Having Hayne anywhere but fullback or wing has not worked for years. If Parramatta still wants Jennings and Auva'a on the left then Hayne and Hoffman just need to trade places. And, Gutherson could potentially take over Hoffman's spot at centre when he is fit. Or, a straight swap for French.
Josh
Guest
I love the early season comments from eels fans every year. 'Biggest club in Western Sydney', 'new stadium is ours', 'this is our season'. Then by round 2 you don't hear from them again, it's great
bazza200
Roar Rookie
Guth is injured
John
Guest
Gold
Chuznut
Guest
Not that I think that he would've made a difference on Sunday, but I'd like to see Kenny Edwards brought back into the team this week. Sure, he does do some stupid things on the field every now and then (and off the filed), but he also brings a lot of energy everytime he comes on that seems to be infectious, and lifts the whole team. I think what they were missing his energy off the bench against the Panthers in week 1. If he had come on at the 30 minute mark when Penrith were starting to get back into the game, I think that Parra would've continued on with the job that they started in the first 15 minutes of the game, and finished off the Panthers. Also, on a side note - Did Parra play any other pre-season games apart from the one against the Knights? From what I can tell, this was their only pre-season game, whereas all of the other teams played 2. Could it simply be a matter of the entire team being a bit under done because they only had 1 run under their belt leading into the season proper (I assume that Parra would've decided to only have 1 pre-season game instead of 2, so they'd only have themselves to blame), which obviously would've been exacerbated by the fact that their first 2 games were in 40C heat?
FrozenNorth
Guest
I said all along that they over-performed last year and the forward pack worried me. Too many big, dynamic polynesians and not enough starch and old school go-forward. Canberra suffering from the same thing.
Malo
Guest
The Hayne affect .
Malo
Guest
It’s ironic Radradra had to go from a false allegation but Lodge stays after several serious assaults. Radradra should be compensated by the nrl.
madmax
Guest
Mary, i'm a Manly supporter & did not expect the final scoreline, although I did believe Manly would win. I also believe it will be Cronulla that is 0-3 when your team play them next week!
BA Sports
Roar Guru
He averaged more meters per run than any of his team mates yesterday.. Over the first two weeks he has run for metres than all but two forward team mates (Brown and Moeroa) and they have both played signficantly more minutes.
bazza200
Roar Rookie
Last year Nathan brown was going great and did a lot of offload and a lot of metres. They had a bad game they don't have the best forward pack but can do much better.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Mary, The best system I know is that a good team beaten heavily away generally wins or covers the line at their next match at home. The Eels are back at home (ANZ) on a cooler Sat night after playing two away games in stifling heat. I have not placed huge weight in the last two weeks. They are favoured to win by the market so there is no plus line, but they have every chance to bounce back and win especially if they play Terepo and Gutho. Fans can hang on to two hopes; coach Brad Arthur is rated in my top 4 NRL coaches and what he has done with this list over the last two years under adverse circumstances has been more than impressive, and their opening 20 mins against the Panthers was form expected from future Premiers. Sadly, Moses got hit on the head shortly after and the Eels have not slithered ever since. It is a very long season and very true that the Eels are only one win away from the top rated four teams and equal with the Sharks, their opposition this week.
Nick
Roar Guru
I'd look forward to hearing Channel 9 defend that in court when a player sues for collapsing from heat exhaustion.
David webb
Guest
Mitchell Moses is a little grub what are cameron smith and billy slater then
Mary Konstantopoulos
Expert
And I believe the television coverage impacts whether breaks should be taken...
Nick
Roar Guru
I agree, sin bin them straight away. But not for 5 minutes. It's far too easy to defend. Give em 10 straight off the bat. Then you don't need to worry about it 3-4 times a game before they learn their lesson. 5 minutes is a penalty contrived by people more concerned about the 'flow' or 'balance' of a game than the proper officiating of it.
Nick
Roar Guru
Good questions Chop The NRL has a heat rule guideline. The match yesterday unequivocally met criteria that would have allowed for the provision of an extra break. However, these are only recommendations, and not a mandatory rule.
Kurt S
Roar Pro
How the Eels respond against the Sharks will tell a lot more about where they are at as a team. It is difficult to look at the Manly game in isolation and come to any real conclusions. You would imagine if there is a team spirit and harmony, the Eels will be burning inside all week and will be player for each other come kick off on Saturday. It will be a tough contest... Sharks could end up 0-3 after Saturday's game so you imagine they will be putting in for the game. Win or lose or draw, I'm sure Parra fans just want to see a big effort.