The Brumbies host the Waratahs Saturday at GIO Stadium, in Canberra. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm AEDT.
This is the first of two battles to possess the Dan Vickerman Cup in 2018, which was introduced last year. In 2017, the inaugural challenge resulted in a 16-point loss by the Waratahs in Sydney during the fourth round.
Things are different this year. Neither team excelled in attack. For example, neither team have players in the top ten of the following categories: tries, defenders beaten, lineouts won, metres carried.
The Canberrans have a new coach in “local boy” Dan McKellar, who has had an inauspicious start to his Super Rugby career. His opposing coach, Daryl Gibson, is probably under the highest pressure amongst elite New Zealander coaches in the world. New South Wales is one of the largest Rugby talent pools in the world, yet their results under Gibson have been poor.
The Waratah’s last match against the in-form Rebels was a startling turnaround, specifically the second half, which was a spectacular demonstration of what New South Wales can deliver.
If his team, led by captain Michael Hooper, can deliver the same result today, Gibson may be able to reinvigorate his team, excite the fan base, and put his CV back in the cupboard for another week or so.
Today Hooper will match up with his “frenemy” David Pocock, who will play his first Super Rugby match in 20 months. Pocock has not played under the new ruck regime yet, but I have an inkling he will adjust well assuming he stays match fit.
Under the previous coaching regime, McKellar’s Brumbies have won their last three games against the Waratahs. According to SANZAR statistics, they won 19 of their last 23 Australian derbies on home turf, including each of their last six by an average margin of 20 points.
The Brumbies maintain a fairly structured defensive regime, though they uncharacteristically not shown as much power in the contact area. But its their attack that needs most work.
They have only scored 11 tries, which is almost three times lower than the Rebels. To date they have demonstrated an inability to keep the ball in hand, resulting in many turnovers.
The Waratahs have had no problems scoring tries this season, with a lowest score of 24 in a drawn match in Durban. Unlike co-captain Christian Lealiifano’s wayward boot (27 per cent accuracy for conversions), the Waratahs flyhalf Bernard Foley has been an accurate contributor to the Waratahs fortunes.
If the Brumbies want to maintain their home ground winning record and the Vickerman Cup, then Lealiifano must return to his 2014 kicking form. Also the Brumbies need regain their dominance in the contact area.
The bookies favour the Waratahs narrowly. I am not as convinced, however it should be close. As both coaches have been inconsistent, anything can happen. Expect some ferocious Rugby, and hope for some good tries and accurate kicking. I would say the Brumbies by a nose.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm AEDT.
double agent
Guest
He does miss some no doubt. His technique is fine and he's not scared it's just that small guys often get steamrolled.
RobC
Roar Guru
thanks! Trying to avoid the chocolates, but failing The performance has been very dismal. Their foundation is a solid scrum, deadly lineout, fearsome breakdown. Then backed by killer kicks. It seems, from afar - they have taken it for granted. Reminds me of how Graham tried to get the Reds play Rugby in 2014/2015, by moving away from fundamental strengths
Baz
Guest
Happy Easter to you mate! Yeah I understand that he is making some structural changes. I get that. Each coach wants to try new stuff out. But they really seem to have lost any rhythm. At the start of the season I thought the roster would be really competitive. Funnily enough Laurie F still coaches the forwards and they have really lost their way. Obviously a game of confidence and if the forwards are on the back foot the backs are cramped and options become limited.
RobC
Roar Guru
Hey Baz. Happy Easter! Its a season of change this year. I think most have assumed the transition to McKellar would be smoothest amongst the four who changed coach in the conference, including the Wolves
RobC
Roar Guru
yes Daveski, more than half of what I wrote above is about what faces both team (in the future) What happened to during the game I believe is fairly accurate, though I excluded a few observations to keep it short
Baz
Guest
Agreed RobC. The Brumbs are no where at the moment. Poey tried hard but the rest of the pack sat back and watched. Clean outs were slow and poorly directed. Set piece unreliable at best. The Speight miss tackle seemed to break the back of the Brumbies confidence. A very ugly local derby which to me only highlights a major imbalance between Australia and New Zealand at present. The removal of the Force has not benefited either of these sides. The Brums however, have only been further weakened by a change in head coach.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
Not that it lets the players body the hook, but since all the Brumbies backs are mediocre it has to be coaching. Leilifano, Speight and Kuridrani in particular are all multi cap Wallabies who are capable of much more than we are seeing. Whoever is coaching their attack needs to have a hard think about his approach.
tsuru
Roar Rookie
But if the Brumbies don't run onto passes, as you suggest,, QC would make no difference. My point being that perhaps their problem is with coaching or player commitment. I actually thought Hawera had a pretty good game at 10.
tsuru
Roar Rookie
I just watched a replay of the try. Certainly it was beautifully worked. But I noticed that Muirhead actually got to Naiyaravoro and tried to push/tackle him into touch. But he essentially bounced off him - 83 kg versus 124 kg !!
tsuru
Roar Rookie
I thought Simmons was channelling Justin Harrison 2 minutes from time.
riddler
Guest
tahs won jez.. that is what matters!!
riddler
Guest
hate that nickname.. i am promise you it came from some muppet.. he is not that.. most unassuming bloke you would want to meet..
riddler
Guest
saw foley take down tk and also isa with textbook tackles.. the guy can tackle,, just gets a very bad rap on the roar..
riddler
Guest
agree double,, have received a few highlights of that one already.. rugby poetry as one said..
cinque
Guest
Good to see Foley & Beale defending in the line with commitment. A few misses but good tenacity. It's not as if sending them to the back achieved anything, since neither is good under the high ball. I think the Tahs have looked at the Reds and thought "We can do that" Gordon has improved his defence and maybe even Robertson his scrum. Holloway good bar the kick reception with a foot in touch, maybe the Volvo's fault. Fox guys thought Rona did well but I must have been looking the wrong way. Hanigan prefers second row, guess he can share the load with Staniforth and that will have to do. Dempsey, Latu will make a difference (Fitzpatrick & Roach made big errors) Arnolds are a puzzle. Super-tall like Etzebeth but lacking something. Brumbies backline has big problems. Godwin the best, though the ball fell his way. Naisarini rarely sighted. Mafi he isn't. Pocock best horse in show, as expected.
jeznez
Roar Guru
i am furious - got home. havent looked at whatsapp or any other social media. Rugby Pass as i logged in to watch the game took me to the post game interviews with the score prominantly displayed want to put my fist thrrough a wall at the moment
Cynical Play
Guest
Thanksriddler. Beale starting to find the kind of form the Tahs and WBs need. Rona good at 13. Gordon could slide into WB 9 if Genia injures. Banks played well for Brums. But I couldn’t work out their game plan. Tahs still only lost 1
In Brief
Guest
Not really - the maul collapsed in a heap
Machpants
Roar Guru
Iceman!
Harry
Guest
The Brums backs just don't come on to the ball with any purpose. and frankly look unlikely to break the line as the game wears on. I have suggested this before ... if Australian rugby was trying to make best use of our limited resources, Quade Cooper would be at the Brumbies.