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The Brumbies host the Waratahs Saturday at GIO Stadium, in Canberra. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm AEDT.
This is the first of two battles to possess the Dan Vickerman Cup in 2018, which was introduced last year. In 2017, the inaugural challenge resulted in a 16-point loss by the Waratahs in Sydney during the fourth round.
Things are different this year. Neither team excelled in attack. For example, neither team have players in the top ten of the following categories: tries, defenders beaten, lineouts won, metres carried.
The Canberrans have a new coach in “local boy” Dan McKellar, who has had an inauspicious start to his Super Rugby career. His opposing coach, Daryl Gibson, is probably under the highest pressure amongst elite New Zealander coaches in the world. New South Wales is one of the largest Rugby talent pools in the world, yet their results under Gibson have been poor.
The Waratah’s last match against the in-form Rebels was a startling turnaround, specifically the second half, which was a spectacular demonstration of what New South Wales can deliver.
If his team, led by captain Michael Hooper, can deliver the same result today, Gibson may be able to reinvigorate his team, excite the fan base, and put his CV back in the cupboard for another week or so.
Today Hooper will match up with his “frenemy” David Pocock, who will play his first Super Rugby match in 20 months. Pocock has not played under the new ruck regime yet, but I have an inkling he will adjust well assuming he stays match fit.
Under the previous coaching regime, McKellar’s Brumbies have won their last three games against the Waratahs. According to SANZAR statistics, they won 19 of their last 23 Australian derbies on home turf, including each of their last six by an average margin of 20 points.
The Brumbies maintain a fairly structured defensive regime, though they uncharacteristically not shown as much power in the contact area. But its their attack that needs most work.
They have only scored 11 tries, which is almost three times lower than the Rebels. To date they have demonstrated an inability to keep the ball in hand, resulting in many turnovers.
The Waratahs have had no problems scoring tries this season, with a lowest score of 24 in a drawn match in Durban. Unlike co-captain Christian Lealiifano’s wayward boot (27 per cent accuracy for conversions), the Waratahs flyhalf Bernard Foley has been an accurate contributor to the Waratahs fortunes.
If the Brumbies want to maintain their home ground winning record and the Vickerman Cup, then Lealiifano must return to his 2014 kicking form. Also the Brumbies need regain their dominance in the contact area.
The bookies favour the Waratahs narrowly. I am not as convinced, however it should be close. As both coaches have been inconsistent, anything can happen. Expect some ferocious Rugby, and hope for some good tries and accurate kicking. I would say the Brumbies by a nose.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 7:45pm AEDT.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.