Collingwood and Carlton might be the oldest of foes, but their rivalry has been a bit of a fizzer for going on three decades now.
Since 1990, the Magpies and Blues have met 54 times – never in a final – with just three of those games decided by fewer than 10 points and an average margin of about six goals.
The rivalry still means plenty to the fans of each team – which is why the average crowd since 1990 is pushing 69,000 – but for the rest of us tonight’s match feels less blockbuster than mockbuster.
That doesn’t mean the stakes aren’t high. Both sides are unsurprisingly winless after two rounds, so the heat is going to be turned up on the loser.
Should it be though?
The Blues seem to finally have a pretty good grasp on where they are in their development and what they’re building towards. An 0-3 start for Carlton doesn’t – or at least shouldn’t – change much.
As for the Pies, haven’t we been here before with Nathan Buckley?
It’s an open secret that the Pies aren’t much good, so the obsession with the hot seat under Buckley is becoming tedious. Let’s get to the game, shall we?
Collingwood won plenty of admirers for their performance against the Giants in Round 2. Unfortunately they lost not only the match but also, perhaps more significantly, Darcy Moore with a hamstring injury.
Moore’s absence will be felt immediately as he’s about as good a match-up for Carlton young gun Charlie Curnow as you’ll find.
The game’s best key forwards often jump a level in their third or fourth season, so there’s a good chance what we’ve seen from Curnow in the opening rounds of his third year is a decent representation of the player he is now, and for Collingwood, that’s a problem.
Lynden Dunn lacks the agility to go with Curnow, and Buckley might prefer Jeremy Howe to roam and float as he does best. The could leave Matthew Scharenberg as the best option. That’s a fun match-up.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Things are no less interesting at the other end of the ground where the Blues have their own decisions to make. Liam Jones’ transformation is a good story, but he’s not a good key defender. Jacob Weitering is.
Brendon Bolton said the 2015 No.1 pick would return to the end of the ground where he’s more comfortable after a couple of inconspicuous weeks in the front half, that’s good news for Carlton assuming Weitering and Jones can co-exist in a back six that already includes Caleb Marchbank and Lachie Plowman.
I have my doubts about how all of those pieces fit and would feel better about it if Jones was playing in the VFL this week.
Working in Carlton’s favour is that scoring hasn’t come easy for the Pies in the opening rounds with scores of 67 and 79. Medium forward Ben Crocker is their leading goal scorer so far with three.
It’s likely going to take a team effort and a good spread of goalkickers for the Magpies to kick a decent score. One of the bright spots in their loss to GWS was the play of Adam Treloar in the forward line.
Treloar jagged a couple of goals against his former side but it was more than that. All of the things that make him a very good onballer – speed, acceleration, ability to win ground balls and break from congestion into space – make him a dangerous player with and without the ball inside-50. If the Magpies can afford to do without him in the midfield for chunks of time (hint: they can), Treloar offers an attacking spark they so sorely lack.
Ben Reid is hit or miss as a forward but at least offers Collingwood a solid target and is dangerous enough on the lead and in the air to demand respect. He could also be called on to quell Curnow the young Blue gets his confidence up, which would be a double-win for the Blues. Mason Cox is just a guy.
The midfield is where things are tastiest in this match-up. Patrick Cripps continues to develop into the evolutionary Josh Kennedy and he has able support from the ever-underrated Marc Murphy and smooth Sam Petrevski-Seton. Ed Curnow has had the quietest 67-disposal fortnight I can remember.
For the Pies it’s former A-grader Scott Pendlebury (that’s a joke), Steele Sidebottom, Treloar and Taylor ‘The Butcher’ Adams doing the heavy lifting.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Brodie Grundy gave Rory Lobb a bath last week but will find things much tougher against a returning Matthew Kreuzer. Nonetheless, Collingwood looks a little stronger around the ball.
How the Blues attack will be fascinating. Throughout the preseason we heard and saw that Carlton wanted to play faster. In the opening round it paid off somewhat. While Carlton scored more freely – especially in the opening term – they also got cut to pieces.
Richmond scored 94 points off Carlton’s turnovers, which is more than the Blues conceded in any game last season. Their attacking mindset compromised their defensive integrity.
Do they take the game on again and bet on Collingwood being unable to punish them as the Tigers did, or play it more conservatively and try to grind it out? The former would be more entertaining even if it might not be the wisest move.
Neither of these sides are much chop and it’s far from the tastiest Friday night match-up, but that’s not to say it’s not an interesting one. There are enough stars, subplots and Sidebottoms for something fun to break out.
I don’t know if it’ll be any good, but I think it’ll be close. I’m tipping Collingwood by 10 points.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Leonard
Guest
You're right , Doc, because their college rivalries are a lot older than NFL ones, especially with there being about twice as many ex-NFL teams as there are current ones. It probably surprises most of us that high school and college sports are so prominent in the US. Seems to me it's because American schools are very VERY local, being not even State-based - they are in 13,506 school districts which are independent of State and city authorities. (There once was 108,000 of them.) Which is why American high school movies seem so totally 'unreal' and weird to us - our general attitude to intra-school dramas here would be 'Who TF cares?". In American high school movieland, nobody ever seems to successfully (let alone competently, or even adequately) teach or learn anything! Ever! And why high school proms, graduations, 'home-comings' and reunions can be so murderous - everyone knows everybody! And memories are very long. Great fodder, though, for crime drama, especially in the school loser / loner turns psychopathic mass-shooter genre - which, very sadly, happens so often in the real 'reality show'.
Dr Wildare
Guest
Well Leonard a number of the major American College (university) American Football teams have grounds that have capacity in excess of 100,000 so I suspect a number of College teams would surpass that history.
Chris
Guest
Pleased to see that the Maggies got up today! There seems to be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Could there actually be some wins on the way? If the boys dig deep and pull off the next three we are in real business and September action looms. Watch out Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond. Needless to say, Fasolo, Elliott and De Goey come staright in to put some kero to last night's fire! All three are doable and it's up to us to plan and execute clinically. Leave Mason Cox in the line-up even if he's not kicking goals. He is a great decoy!
Leonard
Guest
The Coroner's office overwhelmed by the demand for inquests this coming week, then!?
Lroy
Guest
......make that 4 decades... any Blues fan who takes solace from tonight should stick his head in an oven.
Lroy
Guest
Chris... they are also hanging out for games that feature the Crows, Power, Dockers and Eagles... at least 30% of the AFL's audience each week support teams who are not based in Melbourne... and we want to watch a GREAT contest on Friday nights... not 2 mismatched suburban Melbourne teams. This weeks time slot was screaming out for the two Sydney teams who I ironically forgot to mention in my opening paragraph ;-)
Lroy
Guest
Everyone bags Anon... But the guy makes a lot of sense.. Pies versus Blues on Friday night when you could have had the Swans / Giants?? I watched the game with a Carlton member in a bar and he was begging me to leave before half time!!! That can't be good for the game. Fark..the Friday night game used to be the best game of the round..whatever happened to that idea?? Neutrals wont tune in to watch crap. We are footy fans, not masochists.
Leonard
Guest
This 'neutral' does, on the basis of that (sort of) classic T-shirt: "I barrack for [my team] and any other playing Carlton".
Kurt
Guest
Consider the point well and truly missed.
anon
Roar Pro
Terrible fixture for a Friday night. Blow out game between two teams that will be in the bottom 6.
anon
Roar Pro
Pretty simple concept. All Victorian Grand Final have one Grand Final for all I care. Between two interstate teams the first game at the highest seeded team's home ground, next game the MCG, decider at the lower seeded team's ground. Between Victorian and interstate team two of the three go to the higher seeded team. Of course the best solution is to just give the game to the highest seeded team, but three games gets around the issue of the MCG contract.
Leonard
Guest
Ah, BODMAS! There can't be many still on the live side of life's equation who know their BODMAS! Is there anyone out there who can finish "A, ab, absque coram, de . . ."? Or fill in the number in "nn feet per second per second"
Leonard
Guest
All of them. There was a Waverley Hawthorn v Collingwood 92935 in 1981-R11 under unique circumstances; there was no other 80000+ at that ground. Melbourne's Waverley and Adelaide's Football Park were both badly sited, away from each city's CBD and inaccessible by mass transit; Hobart's Bellerive Oval has the same problem, with the additional disadvantages of being on the wrong shore of the Derwent estuary plus being stuck with being surrounded on three sides by residential properties and by a beach on the fourth.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Beyond BODMAS I’m rubbish when it comes to maths, I admit. Just seemed odd you’d claim that as the basis when everything else you’ve ever written on here was as a response to stimuli. The issue I have with the best of 3 grand final is that it’s just more games to not even solve the problem. Who gets to host the first game? Where is the third game played? Neutral venue? What about travel - does the neutral venue have to be in a venue so it’s equal for both sides? If Sydney were playing the dockers in a grand final wouldn’t it be unfair if it was being played in Melbourne? Or is a bit of extra travel acceptable unfairness? If Port adelaide were playing the Eagles in game 3 is it at played at Kalgoorlie? As far as I can see it is totally impossible to have a totally even and fair preparation for both sides regardless of whether it is 1 game or 3 games - inevitably too these sort of arguments are prosecuted by people who perhaps need to step back and remember ultimately - it’s just a game of football. Life goes on Finally I see you’re already backsliding with your “or an interstate grand final” rider too
Raimond
Roar Guru
Scoring 100 points in a match is not a completely irrelevant statistic. For example, the Giants are currently on a 30-match winning steak when scoring >100 points.
anon
Roar Pro
I'll do a search when I have time, but best of 3 is my idea. The Roar isn't the most easy site to search. I pushed that or an interstate Grand Final pretty hard for a long time before it gained traction. The mathematically illiterate don't understand sample sizing.
Dan in Devon
Guest
I think the pies’ problems lie with their appalling skill set and their inability to enter the forward 50 in a contestable situation. Jesus, they had the run of play last week but were unable to kick to space in the forward 50. I would back the pies to win the points count in every game this season such is their woeful kicking. How did a group of grown men become so poorly skilled - even Varcoe seems afflicted by this down skilling that seems to happen at Collingwood.
Paul D
Roar Guru
got a link to it? I’d be interested to read it. Particularly interested to know what was your inspiration - I can’t see you making a big deal of port losing to Geelong in 07, you certainly wouldn’t have cut Freo any favours after 13 so I’m thinking your beloved swans going down in 14 was the catalyst Not exactly several but hey
Aligee
Guest
Most other cities dont have a 100,000s seat stadium, Collingwood would have had many more huge crowds albeit during the 1980's and 90's they played a stack of Collingwood /Carlton games at Waverly, got some very good crowds but it was a huge hike for many fans. Waverly was the VFL/AFL answer to the MCC plundering money from the league, at the end of the day Etihad and a better deal from not playing Collingwood/Carlton games at the MCG has enabled the AFL to be in the financial position it is now, ---- pain then gain. Personally i wish Collingwood was still at a revamped Vic Park, - pie in the sky !!!
Macca
Guest
SO the Cats play Monday then travel to Perth to play Friday night? Or the Hawks play Monday then get to play the reigning premier coming off an 8 day break on Friday night? I don't think you have thought this through.