Many people, including me, had shallow expectations for North Melbourne’s 2018 campaign, citing a weak list riddled with deficiencies.
It was estimated that their midfield was too young and lacked the talent to stand up against an established and well-drilled midfield.
North currently sits third on the AFL ladder after shocking both Hawthorn and the AFL community by dismantling and humiliating the fancied Hawks on Sunday. The Kangaroos demonstrated almost flawless football in the first half, resembling a premiership-contending team.
They were able to limit Hawthorn’s precision game with immense pressure and immaculate structure, forcing the Hawks to kick long down the line, where Robbie Tarrant and Scott Thompson were able to peel off an incredible 27 marks between them.
North’s efficiency inside 50 was phenomenal. Despite finishing with fewer inside 50s than the Hawks, North were able to produce 28 scoring shots to Hawthorn’s 15, with Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite combining for 13 scoring shots.
However, the question arises: is North’s success sustainable?
(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
A simple glance at the ladder indicates that North Melbourne have established themselves as a team that will likely play finals, if not challenge for a top-four berth, but a closer look uncovers some less impressive signs.
North Melbourne so far this year have played Gold Coast (11th), Melbourne (14th), Carlton (18th), St Kilda (15th) and Hawthorn (6th). Having lost to Melbourne and Gold Coast already this year, the start of the season starts to become far less flattering.
Despite playing some of the less competitive sides so far this year, North is eighth in the league for inside 50s and is becoming highly reliant on contested marks inside 50 to create their scoring opportunities.
Such a playing style creates a vulnerability in adverse weather as well as opposition tactics, such as the positioning of a loose man in defence.
In North’s Round 1 loss to Gold Coast in Cairns torrential rain made marking the football impossible, resulting in Jarrad Waite and Ben Brown combining for only one behind between them and the team combining for five goals. North was just able to take 13 uncontested marks to Gold Coast’s 52.
Contrasting with the scintillating first-half against Hawthorn, the second half took a far different route. James Sicily was able to gain space and cut off North Melbourne’s contested inside-50 marks, significantly reducing North’s paths to goals, with only three goals being scored in the second half as opposed to 11 in the first.
North is also becoming highly reliant on contested possessions to generate their play, ranking third in contested possessions so far this season but sitting at 13th and 11th in uncontested and total possessions respectively.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
While a game focused on contested possessions has been a tactic used by successful sides (most notably Sydney) over recent seasons, the samples so far this season have been against some of the least prolific midfields in the competition.
The exception to this is Melbourne. The Demons midfield includes prodigious contested-ball winners Jordan Lewis, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney. In their Round 3 clash North Melbourne was slightly beaten in the contested possession count and subsequently was able to create only 45 inside 50s.
Early season form is something prominent in past campaigns from the Kangaroos. In 2016 North famously won their nine first games, but won only three more games for the rest of the season.
Although a smaller sample size, there is a worrying similarity between the 2016 and current seasons. In 2016 North Melbourne encountered weaker teams earlier in the season, similar to this year, and their style of play was eventually worked out by the stronger and better-drilled sides.
The adjustment made by the Hawks in the second half last week highlights that a similar trend could emerge this year.
North Melbourne compelled many supporters of the game with their performance on Sunday, but there have been some troubling signs in their style of play and a subsequent reliance on contested possessions and marks. I’ll be interested to see how their season unfolds.
How have you received North Melbourne’s early season performances?
Brandon Mavinil
Roar Pro
Go Roos beat the power
Cat
Roar Guru
Don’t blame the successful teams, blame the teams that can’t get their stuff together.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Swannies old bean! Surprisingly fighting but nevertheless hopeful words North knocking over your second favourite has gotta hurt. Sydney just a little bit wobbly with 2 losses at the SCG. Hard times.
Swannies
Guest
Take these 3 wins with a grain of salt. North are a couple of injuries away from mediocrity. They are a bottom 4 side and will crash in July and August.
Doran Smith
Roar Guru
My predictions changes from week to week!
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Just on the "who has NM played and ladder position" issue. They played Gold Coast in a post cyclone deluge which is unlikely to be encountered by other teams this year. Due credit to GC for getting the job done. All teams were 0 from 0, and what do you know GC are alright so far contrary to predictions. St K won first up and were hence ahead of NM and roundly predicted to beat them and plenty more. Note strong game against GWS. Melbourne were 1 & 1 with a tight loss to Geel (or someone strong) and went in strong favourites. Their current 14 is probably not reflective. They flogged North in a comprehensive hoodoo breaker. Carlton bottom 4 for sure but many tipped them to finish above NM. Enter Hawthorn. 4th to NM's 7th before the match. Lavishly praised for their demolition of Melb and speculatively predicted to, maybe, go top 4. It may be a wildly unpredictable season with more evenly matched teams but they will go in as favourites against Port. If they are to stamp their mark they have to go extra hard against a desperate, scheming Port and get a break on the middle teams. Interesting times ahead.
Nicholas Richardson
Roar Guru
I agree, and it is becoming insane how many teams this year are 'finals chances'. Melbourne is six spots out of the 8, but some have them in there.
Nicholas Richardson
Roar Guru
To be fair, considering they were predicted by many to finish last, third after 5 rounds falls under the classification of success.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Like any team - a lot depends on: Form Fitness Luck Consistency The latter 2 often flow from the former 2.
Confused
Guest
What success? They lost to Gold Coast and Melb. Their wins have been over bottom to middle of the pack teams in St K, Carlton and Hawks. Lets wait until they have played all the teams before we start judging their season or at least see if they lose the next 4 games against Port, Syd, Ric and GWS
User
Roar Rookie
Confidence is a great thing, north aren't fielding a young team and have added a few players that compliment the players they already have. To early to predict anything but if they can sustain the pressure game then they are as good a chance as a log jam of teams capable of playing finals atm.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Spot on Bogdan K, most experts have not bothered to take an in depth look at North's list. Probably understandable with 18 teams but just a tad dismissive if you are claiming to be an expert. Totally understandable that roarers didn't rate them as we tend to only follow our own and only note the other teams as we come across them. Now the big question is can they sustain their good start? I have watched far too many North matches to relax, no matter how far ahead they are. With Hawthorn nabbing 3 quick goals after half time, I thought "Here we go" and then as Higgins went to right the ship the two knockouts came in 5 seconds! I revised my thoughs to "That'd be right". Even as I resigned myself to a tortourous last half, this dire passage of play ended with Daw calmly laying a tackle to diffuse another forward 50 thrust. He could easily have panicked and coathangered him and given the free. As Bogdan said they had six minutes to adjust to a 2 man bench. Thereafter they threw everything into defence at the rejuvenated Hawks and by the end the Hawks finally ran out of puff and made blues and North finished with a bit of run. Their second half under the pump was arguably better than the first, though as a supporter it was dreadful to endure. Holding out this old rival under such duress might give them the belief they can do anything, no matter what they say publicly. No one should take anything for granted. Especially not this season. Port and Sydney, the next 2 opponents have big problems but to assume they will walk all over them is asking for trouble. If anything they have to go harder at them than they did at Hawthorn. Brad Scott is a smart bloke, used to adversity. He'll give them every chance to go as far as they can. Worth noting they lost about 4 games last year by less than a goal. That wasn't a team conceding they weren't up for a contest. If the injuries are not too severe they can go large. .
Ryan Geer
Roar Pro
All their stars are on song Cunnington was best on ground against the Hawks, Jacobs shut down Mitchell's influence. Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite are forming close to if not the best tall forward combination in the game at the moment. Robbie Tarrant and Majak Daw marked pretty much everything that came their way and Jack Ziebell at the moment looks more dangerous. As long as their stars can keep this form and can get solid contributions from their youngster's finals is well within reach of North Melbourne. It's when these guys are struggling for form, teams are pressuring them, putting them under the pump that's when North will face their real test and we'll see who stands up for them. But right now they're a dangerous side and can pose a threat to anyone.
sammy
Guest
Well I will back their success for another week at least based on how they played and how their opponents played. Losing higgins this week is not good though. 2 players to utterly dominate this week are Goldstein and Brown. Port have no ruck and no defender capable of stopping brown. It will be whether their mids are good enough to capitalise on the armchair ride they will get this week from Goldy
Kangajets
Guest
Yeah I hear you , but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.. why not just enjoy a win for the underdogs. None of the experts had north winning more then 4-5 games , so you have to give some credit to them for sitting on 3 wins already . What hasn’t been alluded to , is north lost a lost of close game early last season , so turning some honourable losses in wins is part of a club with a good attitude and culture, it also builds confidence among the young players and gives hopes to supporters.
Davi
Guest
I never got al the negativity with Norths. Ben Jacobs the best target in the game makes a world of difference and Cunnington , Higgins and Ziebell (who is finally playing forward)maybe not game changers but are very good players. Then they have Tarrant and Brown at both ends that Are A grade. Players like The problem is Waite and a few others will get injured and not play all games and there inexperienced depth will be tested. Maybe be not a top eight side but things are looking up not down.
Birdman
Guest
I agree they do well in Hobart but it normally comes down to the fixture - Carlton we know about this year but last year IIRC the Giants beat them and Melbourne fell just short both of whom have some quality small forwards. They also did flog the Crows in perfect conditions who structure up a bit taller in their forward line. Capt Obvious call maybe but I reckon they do better when their marking talls are in the game and they are a little vulnerable to smaller faster forward lines.
Nicholas Richardson
Roar Guru
Hi Kangajetz, Contested possessions and Marks are good stats to win, but they are high variance statistics. A reliance on them doesn’t lend itself to consistent results against different strength teams.
Stevo
Guest
Birdman, I agree that North do play Etihad well (so they should, it is there home ground), but they also play well outdoors as well. I mean how else do you explain their really good record in Hobart? I guess there will always be conditions that wont suit the big fellas, but unless they play in conditions more suited to scuba gear than footy boots, most teams that have really good marking targets should be able play good footy and to their strengths in any condition. I guess that is what make good team good.... they play well in all conditions.
Birdman
Guest
Will be a force under the roof at Etihad where the conditions are dry and suits their marking forwards and backs - in less optimal conditions more mobile forward lines might find stretch them. Goldy's form will be critical to their fortunes - not sure he has 4 qtrs in him these days but his first half against Hawthorn certainly rolled back the years.