This is going to be the week that we are forced to dredge up the most mundane of all football talking points: the state of the game.
It is not something that is unique to Australian rules football. Fans, media and administrators in all Australian sports have a fascination with the look and feel of their games; the NRL CEO launched a social media campaign earlier this year in response to a wave of negative coverage (albeit not all of that was centred on the field). Cricket loves nothing more than to tinker. And so on.
It is rarely a conversation I see arise in global sports, particularly the American sports that I follow. Obsessing over the “state of the game” is an Australian past time. So it will be in AFL circles this week.
Let’s not gild the lily, there was more unattractive football than attractive football this weekend. The tone was set early with a fumble-fest on Friday night between the young Carlton and younger Western Bulldogs, and continued right through Saturday night’s festivities. Then Melbourne did their usual thing of crowding around the ball, and the powderkeg exploded.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Social media isn’t the only barometer, but as more people use it it becomes an increasingly useful way to take a pulse. “Footy Twitter” and AFL reddit, my chosen outlets, were full of comments about the parlous state of low scoring, high pressure, error-ridden football.
Facebook would’ve been the same, and I’m sure there was even some real life conversations – remember those? – bending in that direction too.
We go through this cycle every year. There’s some trashy games, and suddenly the interventionists come off the long run and hurl their rule changes down the pitch. We talk about it for a week, the bad games are committed to memory – they’re bad games after all – and we all move on.
This time it’s a little different. First and foremost the horn has been sounded early, because scoring has been historically low for two rounds in a row.
After last weekend saw the third lowest average score in the AFL era (76.4 points), we’ve only lifted slightly in Round Six: to 79.6 points per team per game.
It has taken us nearly a full five points per team per game, near enough a goal each, below last year’s mark.
We all know more points = more exciting football (spoiler: that’s not true), and so if less points are being scored football must be less exciting.
And second, coaches have responded to the league-wide move to play faster and seek time in forward half like it’s one of the six Infinity Stones by playing with more pressure on the ball carrier.
The fast break ways of the first few rounds have been snuffed out, because no one wants to have fast break goals kicked against them regularly. And so we have numbers around the ball, and oodles of space unoccupied.
It’s a matter of absorb the pressure, counter quickly, then apply pressure, scramble back, rinse and repeat. A lot of teams are doing this. And when two teams who want to play this way meet, it’s like two asteroids colliding in space.
Interestingly, the rate of tackling in the league is down precipitously on last year. The average team is laying 63.5 tackles per 50 minutes of opposition possession, down from 67 last year. The number of tackles in a game (laid by both teams) has fallen by about ten (from 136 even to 126.6).
The advent of scramble football is simply leading to more half-tackles, bumps and legal brawls for the ball.
Indeed, the ball is in dispute for an extra minute and a half per game this season – not enormous, but something.
Meanwhile the league-wide giveaway rate (clangers less free kicks against, divided by disposals) is up about 70 basis points, with close to one out of every ten disposals resulting in a change of possession (it was one in 11 last year).
Something is certainly happening. And I am sure the AFL’s newly-formed competition committee is all over it. But I am unconvinced that it is something that needs a radical solution. We simply need to look at the ladder to understand why.
Richmond sits on top. While they may be partially responsible for this trend, they currently lead the league in scoring, and have had one of the stingiest defences for some time before they embarked on their ragged football style.
They’ve shown three weeks running that there’s more to them than dogged defence, obliterating Brisbane before scoring more than eight goals in their last two final quarters.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
West Coast is second. There is nothing laborious about how the Eagles are playing their football. Indeed, it is precisely the opposite.
The GWS Giants is third. Their football is built on a hard edge at the contest, but relies more on outside run and deft transition kicking. They’ve also put together the stingiest defence through six games, even adjusting for their relatively weak schedule.
Hawthorn – good lord – is fourth. While they’ve added an emphasis on the tough stuff this year, their football is about making you keep up with their ability to score.
Adelaide and Port Adelaide are next, both high pressure teams, but without the numbers around the ball in general play.
The Power will press you harder than any team in the competition, but that’s once the ball is in their half. Adelaide play the transition game better than anyone, which they reminded us over the weekend.
So as this week’s debate about the state of the game unfolds, don’t lose sight of the fact we’ve been here before.
Like many conversations I’ve had over the weekend have eventually come to, every macro trend in the recent history of the league has bought with it this same reflex reaction: the flood, the spare defender, the boundary line play, the press, the forward press. We’ve innovated our way around it before.
Besides, as I reckon I’ve ended this column with for the past two weeks, if the price of an even competition is the occasional stinker of a game, then it is a price we must be willing to pay.
Not every game can swing as wildly as Geelong vs Sydney, nor have the flashy skills of this weekend’s Western Derby.
That’s sort of the point of our game anyway, isn’t it? There is no “way” to play; it’s up to the imagination of the players and coaches and the skills of the players to make good on those designs.
There’s plenty of that to go around in season 2018.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
That was a ridiculous rule to trial and as such was quickly scrapped. I'm talking about good ideas not stupid ones.
Aligee
Guest
A big issue is that you have 18 teams and in reality only one can have a successful year - only one. Compare that with for EX English or even Australian soccer, they have 3 or even 4 comps that success in can turn a crap year into a good one or even great one. Now i know you will probably raise your eyebrows or roll your your eyes, but doesn't a comp like AFLX if promoted properly gives another avenue to have a partially successful year.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Thanks Cat. If I'd thought about it for half a second longer, I would've remembered that ti was you who posted it originally.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I can't ever see the Eagles, Hawks, Crows or Swans having a prolonged spell from the 8 of more than say, 2-3 years. Just won't happen with the players they can bring in. GWS could easily be nothing in 10 years time, but I rather suspect the appeal of Sydney will keep them going. Geelong will keep making it if they keep their culture. For me it's not a question of the Qld clubs and the cellar clubs not getting better - they are - but it's because the other clubs are also getting better at a faster rate. Their juniors develop better and they can access players on the trade market they actually want and can entice, rather than waiting to see who is keen and then drawing up the trade strategy based on who put their hand up to come here. I don't see this changing long term, not at all. Lions might fluke a finals appearance for a year or two but they will never be back in the 8 regularly, not while things continue as they are. Free agency will see to that.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Trouble is ,it's also the same teams finishing 7th to 14th, Freo,Pies,Bulldogs,Richmond,Port,North,Demons,Bombers, Suns.They may make it into the 8 occasionally. Eagles, Cats,Hawks have the best finals appearance records. Crows,Swans,now GWS,stalwarts of the eight When will this change?
Cat
Roar Guru
From http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained TACKLE – Using physical contact to prevent an opponent in possession of the ball from getting an effective disposal. What is an effective disposal? EFFECTIVE HANDBALL – A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target. EFFECTIVE KICK – A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession. What an effective kick is is really going to vary by whomever happens to be recording stats for the day. First the person has to guess how far a kick travels, then has to guess whether its 50/50 contest or better and/or who the actual intended target was/is.
Paul D
Roar Guru
honestly Ryan I couldn't give a stuff about style or ugly football. The AFL is as competitive as ever if you're not Suns, Lions, Carlton or the Saints, that's the story here. The real story of this competition is that the same 3-4 teams are finishing on the bottom every year but none of you lot seem to care, because apparently the aesthetics of modern footy make it all worthwhile. Please. you sound like the southern planters marvelling over how good the cotton crop was in 1859. Storm clouds on the horizon and no-one seems aware.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
If you're mounting an argument in defence of "ugly" football, you've lost your argument before you start, because you're implicitly endorsing the evaluation of it as "ugly". I love fierce, competitive, high pressure football, and the tension that builds as a horde of players scramble and fight for it, and then all of a sudden it gets out and it's a lightning fast clearance and the quick ball movement or the run is on. Can't think of anything more bring to watch than kick-mark, kick-mark.
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Dunno. I think the increased value of stats may well have affected the definition. Someone quoted recently Champion Data's definition of a tackle being any body contact that led to an inefficient disposal where the latter was defined in fairly broad terms. If I'm remembering that correctly, then lots of things would get counted as tackles under that definition, whereas I would not be surprised at all if, prior to the introduction of the notion of "prior opportunity" (not sure when that was?), a tackle was registered only when it won the free kick.
I ate pies
Guest
It's quite sad Col. Every week at the gym I see kids in there lifting weights and worrying about what they look like when footy training's on. Instead of being part of a team and socialising they're obsessing about their looks.
I ate pies
Guest
Cat, because of the reason I outlined above - they have more players to kick to. And obviously they're not instructed to flood the area where the ball is. Like I said, there's enough room on the ground for 18 players in each team; it's all tactical. Women's footy really is a poor comparison anyway; the skill levels, fitness, reaction times and strength of the players are poles apart.
I ate pies
Guest
Apparently, according to last weekends games, trying to get your hands free and break the tackle is now prior opportunity. The players have to stand straight up and handball whilst their arms are pinned. It's absolutely ridiculous.
Aligee
Guest
Well that's a good question and one i cant answer, i would have thought that it wouldn't change that much. https://afltables.com/afl/stats/yearly.html
Col in paradise
Guest
Brian Lake and Brendon Goddard would hate that......
Col in paradise
Guest
The Juniors these days spend heaps of time in the gym and taking protein bulk up when not training....my day you would go off and kick and practice marking or muck around games down the park or paddock. Reckon our skill levels better than some of these players these days. And no plague of hammies or ACL's ..Christ played for 15 years and can't remember them much at all being a issue...do miss the hip and shoulder, bump and shirt front though !!!!....
Cat
Roar Guru
And how has the recording of that stat and the definition of what constitutes a tackled changed in that time period?
Col in paradise
Guest
Spot on totally agree...it's getting like the key stone cops in action around the ball and tackling...penalise them for holding or dropping it more and get the ball moving in real possessions...
Col in paradise
Guest
The Swans today announced a record membership of 58,839 members...they are expanding out of the East into the south and rest of State, taken a lot if work over 20years....GWS will take time and I think they will build...
Aligee
Guest
Now we know footy has always been a tough game, but the facts are that tackling has increase from 40 tackles per game in 1987 to about 140 in 2018. Those stats seems to be in complete opposition to the way society has tried to transition itself away from contact or violent sports and also the AFL with rule changes has tried to suppress contact. Those stats also fly in the face of people calling the game softer than previous generations.
Cat
Roar Guru
Guess you don’t pay attention very well. Play on from kicks going backwards has been trialed in the old NAB Cup several years ago.