Freddy’s NSW backline conundrum

Brad Fittler would be absolutely chowing down on the Panadol right now with the amount of selection headaches he must have.

In the forwards, the form of the Dragons boys and Reagan Campbell-Gillard are making selections relatively easy. In the halves, a series of injuries have ruled out a number of major contenders, which while not ideal, does make selections slightly easier.

The real difficulty lies in the backline. NSW are blessed with an embarrassment of riches in this area, with the majority of in-form backs being from NSW.

The trick will be to pick the right blend of youth and experience. Fittler will not want to expose four rookies to the beast that is State of Origin football just because they are in the best form.

It should be noted that this article is being written on the (arguably fairly safe) assumption that James Tedesco will be the NSW fullback; therefore I will only be discussing the wing and centre positions, for which the following players should be considered.

James Roberts
‘Jimmy the Jet’ has been on the cusp of NSW selection for a number of years now. At the age of 25, he is truly coming into his prime, showing the type of form and consistency that everyone knew he was capable of from a young age.

He is no longer the fastest player in the game – although he is definitely in the top two or three – but once he’s in the clear, none currently playing would run him down. He’s an absolute weapon in broken play.

The one major question mark is his ability to get a set going by taking tough runs. This season he has run for 577 metres from 68 runs, which is outside the top 20 for centres in both categories.

Simply put, he needs to work harder when his team is coming out of trouble. Being dangerous in broken play should not be enough to warrant selection – especially considering that broken-play opportunities in Origin are fairly limited.

Josh Addo-Carr
The ‘Fox’ is an absolute speed machine, without a doubt the fastest player in the NRL. Since making the move to Melbourne last year, Josh Addo-Carr has displayed a level of consistency that has catapulted him into the selection conversation.

He is currently second on the try-scoring list, with eight, at an impressive strike rate of one per game. He also has 30 tackle busts to his name – the fourth most for wingers and 11th overall.

The one drawback of Addo-Carr is, like Roberts, he doesn’t seem to have a massive appetite for work coming out of trouble. He does have 882 metres to his name from 78 runs, but with six line breaks including a length-of-the-field effort against the Warriors, it wasn’t overly difficult for him to make those metres.

Still, if NSW were to pick one workaholic winger – for example, Blake Ferguson – they could get away with picking Addo-Carr, who doesn’t love the tough stuff as much.

For all the speed and power he brings to the table, the gamble is definitely worth it.

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Tom Trbojevic
The younger of the Trbojevic brothers has already tasted rep football at the World Cup last year for the tournament-winning Kangaroos. He also would have likely played for NSW last year if not for a poorly timed knee injury.

This year it’s his ankle that’s giving him trouble. Despite that, he’s still a shoo-in to make his Origin debut on June 6 at the MCG.

The only question is whether to pick him on the wing or in the centres. This will likely depend on who else is picked, and what is deemed best for team balance.

Latrell Mitchell
This young bloke can’t escape the Greg Inglis comparisons, and with good reason. He’s been fantastic this year in an inconsistent team, scoring five tries, making five line breaks and a whopping 35 tackle busts (fifth in the NRL and first for centres).

Even his defence has improved drastically, only missing ten tackles so far. For some perspective, established representative centres like Will Chambers, Dane Gagai, Josh Morris, Peta Hiku and Dean Whare have all missed more tackles. Mitchell also provides a reliable back-up goal-kicking option should James Maloney get injured.

The only draw-back for Mitchell is – like Addo-Carr and Roberts before him – work rate. He’s not even in the top 20 for centres for runs taken, with just 63, and is 17th for metres gained with 684. A lift in this department should see him make his Origin debut in Game 1 this year.

Blake Ferguson
At 28 years old, ‘Fergo’ is now a veteran of 168 NRL games and seven Origins, but the antics of himself and partner-in-crime Josh Dugan in the lead-up to Origin 3 last year had many saying he’d never play for the Blues again.

However, Ferguson has started the 2018 NRL season with a bang, with four tries, one try-assist and 22 tackle-busts from eight games so far. He is also the leading meter-eater in the NRL, with 1531 metres. However, what’s more impressive are the 150 runs he’s made (also number one in the NRL).

That shows a willingness to work the ball out of tough situations, which is exactly what is needed in State of Origin. Ferguson knows this, and that’s why he is playing the way he is.

At this stage, despite his history, Ferguson should be the first winger picked.

Blake Ferguson (AAP Image/Paul Miller)

Josh Dugan
Dugan has struggled for consistency, only playing six out of eight possible games, and being switched between fullback and centre regularly.

Given his stats, a Blues berth seems unlikely – one try, with three set up, while running 76 times for 596 metres, 18 tackle-busts and two line breaks.

But what works in Dugan’s favour is the fact he’s a proven big-game player for both NSW and Australia. Should Freddy Fittler opt for some youth on the wings, he may be inclined to select someone like Dugan.

Clint Gutherson
Just three games back from last year’s season-ending ACL injury, ‘Gutho’ seems like a bit of a wildcard at this point. He hasn’t set the world on fire yet, although the Eels rediscovered their winning ways with him back in the side.

But the form he produced at the back-end of last year prior to getting injured warrants his place in this conversation.

I’d say a Game 1 debut for ‘The King’ is unlikely, but don’t be surprised to see him in Games 2 or 3 if Fittler makes any changes.

Euan Aitken
Euan Aitken has been one of the form centres of the competition. A damaging ball-runner, he has made 100 runs for 926 metres, including 21 tackle-busts, five line-breaks and five tries.

At just 22, he is already in his fourth season of NRL football, has played some representative football for Country, the PM’s XIII, and he was part of the Scottish team that drew with New Zealand in the 2016 Four Nations.

Aitken doesn’t accelerate very fast, but he uses his superior strength to break into the clear, by which time there are few in the NRL who can stop him.

His defence is also a great asset. He’s certainly capable of a bad read (most young backs are), but when he makes the right decision, he rarely misses a tackle.

To make a comparison to some former Dragons greats, he is more Matt Cooper than Mark Gasnier, but – fortunately for his Origin prospects – both players were regularly selected for NSW.

Nick Cotric
Nick Cotric is a deadest machine. He’s like a younger version of Josh Mansour.

At just 19 years of age and in only his second season of first grade, the reigning Dally M Rookie of the Year has plenty of improvement left in his game.

Cotric’s Raiders have been struggling this year, but that hasn’t stopped the young man from racking up a massive 46 tackle-busts – the second most in the NRL.

This is exactly the sort of thing you want from your wingers in Origin. Not only does busting through tackles tire out your opposition, but it also gives your team’s forwards more time to get behind the play-the-ball and start getting involved in the play.

Cotric is probably a bit young for Origin at this stage – he doesn’t need that added responsibility right now, especially with the calibre of wingers NSW already possess – but in a few years he certainly wouldn’t look out of place in a sky-blue jumper.

My NSW backline
At this stage, my NSW backline is:
1. James Tedesco
2. Blake Ferguson
3. Tom Trbojevic
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Josh Addo-Carr

I have serious question marks over Trbojevic due to his fitness, and would say that his spot in the team is most up for grabs. If he is clearly being hampered by that ankle issue over the coming weeks, I would have James Roberts take his spot.

What do you think, Roarers? Who from the above list makes your team? Is there someone that I’ve overlooked entirely? Make sure to let me know in the comments.