When does 120 kilograms not go into 17? When there are only six interchanges a match. The era of big pigs playing in the front row is just about over.
There is a fair bit of disquiet down in Canberra town right now, and it isn’t just because the frosts have arrived.
Many of the faithful who bleed green are upset about the impending departure of their behemoth front rowers, Junior Paulo and local junior Shannon Boyd, at season’s end.
What this issue really illustrates is the different realities of the club’s key stakeholders: the administration and the fans.
As fans, we love our club, win or lose. It isn’t a job. Our fandom starts from whenever we found a passion for our side and extends to the grave. While we understand the realities of players coming and going, we grow fond of them. We want some kept well outside of the realities of the salary cap or the realities of how a team needs to be constructed to be competitive.
The desire of fans to retain Boyd and Paulo really highlights how the loyalties of the fans can be out of step with the harsh reality that the CEO and coach have to deal with.
For Don Furner Jr, Peter Mulholland and Ricky Stuart, the brutal truth is that they could not justify spending over $500,000 a season for behemoth props like Paulo (123kgs) or Boyd (122kgs).
Why? There are four factors to be considered.
Factor 1: Heavier blokes play fewer minutes
Big units consistently need to be rested. Hauling around that amount of bulk is hard work.
Have a look at the average minutes played by the players who regularly feature in the front row in the NRL:
| Name | Minutes | Weight | Name | Minutes | Weight | |
| R. James | 76.4 | 106 | D. Alvaro | 46.2 | 108 | |
| A. Fifita | 63.4 | 118 | S. Taukeiaho | 46.1 | 108 | |
| A. Blair | 59.4 | 109 | B. Matulino | 45.4 | 107 | |
| M. Prior | 59.1 | 105 | M. Lodge | 44.4 | 121 | |
| A. Woods | 55.6 | 111 | J. Paulo | 43.9 | 123 | |
| D. Klemmer | 55.1 | 116 | S. Bolton | 43.5 | 112 | |
| R. Campbell-Gillard | 53.2 | 115 | M. Scott | 42.2 | 110 | |
| H. Ese’ese | 51.7 | 107 | N. Asofa-Solomona | 42 | 115 | |
| P. Vaughan | 51.3 | 110 | M. King | 41.7 | 105 | |
| M. Taupau | 50.8 | 112 | J. Waerea-Hargreaves | 40.1 | 108 | |
| D. Napa | 49.8 | 113 | J. McLean | 40 | 118 | |
| P. Terepo | 49.6 | 106 | J. Tamou | 40 | 115 | |
| I. Soliola | 49 | 100 | K. Sims | 39.8 | 108 | |
| J. Graham | 48.8 | 107 | T. Glasby | 38.2 | 106 | |
| A. Fonua-Blake | 47.9 | 118 | T. Mannah | 36.9 | 110 | |
| D. Saifiti | 47.2 | 121 | C. Welch | 36.4 | 110 | |
| R. Packer | 47 | 119 | G. Burgess | 35.8 | 120 | |
| J. Wallace | 46.6 | 109 | S. Boyd | 34.9 | 122 | |
| T. Burgess | 46.5 | 120 | A. Paasi | 34.7 | 111 | |
| J. Bromwich | 46.3 | 114 | J. Lillyman | 33.9 | 104 |
While there are freaks like Andrew Fifita who can haul 118 kgs around the park effectively for three quarters of the game, as a general rule the heavier you are the fewer minutes you play.
Factor 2: Big players always require rotation
A coach must rotate his 17 players around to cover 1040 playing minutes per match. That works out to an average of 61 minutes and 12 seconds per player if spread evenly. However, it isn’t spread evenly. There are seven players who are rarely interchanged: the backs. Each one plays 80 minutes, or 560 minutes of combined match time.
That leaves the remaining ten players to cover 480 minutes between them at an average of 48 minutes each. That’s not unreasonable, especially when the hooker, lock and second rowers can be expected to do 60 minutes each minimum, or 240 minutes between them.
That leaves the remaining six players having to average 40 minutes each, which works out neatly if you want to carry two props who only do 80 minutes between them. However, the interchanges are about to be reduced.
Factor 3: Only six interchanges in 2019
Eight interchanges is a neat number when you have a four-man interchange bench, but cut it to six and things get more difficult.
To rest both props and then bring them back uses two-thirds of your interchanges, allowing only two changes for the rest of the team for the remainder of the game. That’s a big risk.
A risk that’s compounded when you get the inevitable injuries.
So the value of the big pig’s impact on the line is drastically counteracted by their inability to cover more positions if required. While the likes of Ryan James, Matt Prior, Paul Vaughan and Marty Taupau could cover most spots in the pack and do big minutes, the likes of Paulo and Boyd can’t as easily. They have little utility value and could be defensive liabilities if played for too long or out of position.
Factor 4: Balancing the salary cap
The current salary cap is $9,400,000 per club a season, to cover the 30 players each squad is required by the NRL to have. Averaged out across all 30 players – and assuming no bonuses for such things as players making rep teams – that comes to $313,333 apiece.
What does that sort of money buy you? I’m taking a guess, but I reckon that’d get you the likes of a Nelson Asofa-Solomona, or a Luke Bateman, or an Isaah Yeo, or a Peter Hiku. A good, solid player. Perhaps not a star, but very capable.
However, as we know from Josh Dugan’s desire to get ‘fullback money’, different positions get bigger salaries than others.
It is generally expected that the spine players will get the most money, while those on the least ($85,000 is the NRL minimum wage) will be fringe members of the squad, who play in the feeder club – either up-and-coming prospects or ageing players who can be called on to play a role.
Consider this team make up:
| Hooker: $1,000,000 | |||
| Second Row 1: $500,000 | Second Row 2: $450,000 | ||
| Lock: $500,000 | |||
| Halfback: $675,000 | |||
| Five Eighth: $575,000 | |||
| Winger 1: $350,000 | Centre 1: $500,000 | Centre 2: $400,000 | Winger 2: $375,000 |
| Fullback: $750,000 | |||
| Bench reserve one: $275,000 | Bench Reserve two: $250,000 | Bench reserve three: $175,000 | Bench reserve four: $175,000 |
That’s $6,950,000 of your cap spent on just 15 of your 17 game-day players, leaving only $2,450,000 to get the last 15 players. That’s an average of $163,000 apiece.
However, add two props to that at $600,000 each and then you’ve got just $1,250,000 for the remaining 13 players in your squad – an average of $96,153.
That’s not the sort of money that can get you any great depth for when the injury or bad form fairy visits.
So, given a roster manager has to consider the need for players to do big minutes and have some utility value, as well as the impending change to six interchanges, along with the emphasis on spending your cap to achieve these first three factors, if you then pay over $500,000 for a prop, it needs to be for a Ryan James, Paul Vaughan or Andrew Fifita, who can cover lots of positions, do big minutes and have impact.
So while lots of Raiders supporters are lamenting the loss of Paulo and Boyd, you can see that there is method in the administration’s madness. They just couldn’t justify spending huge money on low-minute, impact players with no utility value – no matter how much they loved them.
It’s business. And if it isn’t managed well by you, then you’ll be replaced.
So the sad truth is that, with the institution of the six interchange rule, the big pigs of rugby league are about to become extinct.
While we will still remember with fondness the likes of Dallas Donnelly, Stan Jurd, Bob O’Reilly, George Rose and the footballer formerly known as ‘DogZilla’ smashing their generously endowed frames into the defensive lines, soon the legends are all that will be left.
Kevvy`s Super Maroons
Guest
when has the change from 8 to 6 interchanges been announced though i understand it has to go to the rules committee who will meet at the end of the season as there will need to be a implementation date to take into account clubs rosters- 2 to 3 years away at least if it does happen at all. teams 13 is another frontrower maybe if this happens there will be a return of the traditional lock - you dont want backrowers ending up having to fill in as front rowers in games though. Better idea is to have 4 bench players - 6 interchanges plus 2 subs who can cover for injuries or players out of sorts - if the subs come or into the 17 the player replaced cannot play any further part in the game
Larry1950
Guest
Geez Tim, was right on board with the article until the salary cap section. Had to go and look at the 16 hookers selected for round 12 this weekend and struggled to see anyone, with the exception of a 34 year old Cam Smith, who was worth $1M to their club. As a quick point, there were about 6 regulars, 6 rookies and 4 out-of-position fill ins selected as hookers for the round. Only McCullough, Granville, Friend (?), Cook & Mcinnis could be considered as worth more than $400k at a pinch.The day of selecting a spare hooker on the bench will go with those interchange reductions & we'll see a lot more forward passes from fill in dummy halves, that skill is being lost. Even Smith & Granville got plenty wrong last night, JT seemed to be forever reaching behind to catch the pass from dummy half & I think that is one reason why his timing has been a bit off lately. All dummy halves nowadays seem to stand up to pass & that's why it loops in the air. Oh for the bullet pass straight from the ground, who was the last dummy half to throw them? I think the big value in the future cap, after the interchange drops to 6 and time wasting is clamped down on, will be the Peachey's of the world. Robust enough for the forwards, versatile enough for most backline spots. Makes me glad the Broncos have unearthed Kotoni Staggs, his build & versatility will be a bonus in coming years.
3_Hats SSTID 2014
Roar Rookie
Have you watched the Rabbitohs play recently and the Twins especially? They both propel their huge frames around with ease How many 30 and 40 metre runs have they made this season and carved the opposition up? Plenty... Go ask the opposition forwards, what they think? They will tell you!
Quite Lucrative
Guest
You blokes aren't even close. Stop swallowing what you are told and think out of the square. The real reason the interchange goes to 6 is to reduce the influence of the polynesian players. Many of these guys are built like brick outhouses and in the new era of player welfare it is not hard to see reducing the size of players has to come. The G force impact of these giants must be huge and thinking long term, physical manifestations of these impacts are one or two retired generations away. Watching Fox matches of the past it was not so long ago maybe 5 years only when the polynesians were only a small part of teams. Now they are at the cusp of dominating. It's a good move all around as less interchange means more tired players at the back end of the game, thus opening things up for more scoring. More golden points, more excitement.Less impact injuries. I approve this move.
mushi
Roar Guru
The muscle v fat isn't the issue hogart, it's the energy expended to propell a 126kg frame around a field versus a smaller one (and the wear and tear on the body in doing so). Seen many 120kg muscle men with a marathon lately...
Rellum
Roar Guru
I am not so sure about that.
mushi
Roar Guru
Also it was meant to be a glib comment. I think the physiology is reasonably obvious, the bigger issue is why we still persist with the "forwards/backs" designation that no longer exists.
mushi
Roar Guru
No one is "contesting" the scrum. If there is no contest there is no winner, even when it is "won" agaisnt the feed that's ebcuase only one side decided it was a competition and the other side didn't realise.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Spot on guys. I disagree with Tim's assessment that Raiders supporters are upset about the loss of Paulo and Boyd next season. After the initial disappointment at letting go big boppers that can have a short term impact I think the fans can recognise the reality that they don't have a big enough impact over 80 minutes as Tim's stats show. Plus they have been found out in defence due to their lack of mobility. Boyd only punching out 34 minutes a match is pretty ordinary so you can understand why the club did not want to match the $650 K offered by the Titans. I would have thought hard about keeping Junior and upping his fitness levels to 50 minutes plus but I can understand their reluctance to match $700 K per season offered by the Eels. I think they've made the right decision in targeting Papalii as a keeper and letting the two big blokes go. Tim's stats also highlight that the Raiders decision to let Vaughan go lat the end of 2016 and keep Boyd and Paulo was a mistake. Keeping two big boppers in the squad and letting go a more mobile forward has hurt their performances. Vaughan seemed to really fall out of favour in 2016 when the team was performing well but he's certainly taken all before him since moving to the Dragons.
mushi
Roar Guru
To be fair though hookers and fullbacks are better ball players now.
Spencer Kassimir
Roar Pro
Maybe it's just me but I have found the game to be so much better in recent years compared to the old series of grapple tackle, slow down the ruck, first receiver hit up, rinse lather repeat ad nauseum. No, there has been no earth shattering shift in tactics but things have definitely moved the needle in the right direction. I would watch if the Walker brothers got an NRL gig whether they won right away or not. Unfortunately, we no longer live at a time where a coach is given very much time to create/change a culture and system before being fired for failure to win immediately.
Spencer Kassimir
Roar Pro
Historically, unlike the contemporary play-the-ball and line of scrimmage in the gridiron, the scrum being awarded to a team didn't give true possession of the ball but advantage in the contest over the ball. In that sense, Mushi, I see what you mean but wouldn't phrase it as such. As things would have it, I will be discussing this in the Tom Brock Lecture next month on the 14th in Sydney as changing from a contested scrimmage/scrimmage to uncontested had consistently changed the physiology of players. @BallsOutPhd
Spencer Kassimir
Roar Pro
Glad you clarified nearly. We can't have party fouls!
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Don't forget it actually was a 10 metere rule. The defending AND attacking sides had to be each back 5 metres from ther play the ball. The coaches stuffed this up.
3_Hats SSTID 2014
Roar Rookie
For those who think that the Burgess Twins can't play more minutes and keep their 126Kg weight have no idea at all. These boys are 100% muscle which is heavier than fat. The whole squad at the Rabbitohs are extremely fit baring injuries of course! There are many players like Kasiano, Paulo, Papalii as examples who are carrying FAT. None of the Souths boys is carrying any fat at all as they are all muscle. The footy players of today are the fittest they have ever been and if the League do reduce the Interchange from 8 to 6 then they will all just play a little longer stints. Hookers and Edge players should all play 80 minutes. That leaves 2 Front rowers a lock plus 3 Interchange Forwards playing a total of 240 minutes OR an average of 40 minutes each. Your 4th Interchange player should be a truly Utility who can cover in the forwards and also in the backs if required. You have to keep in mind that in the early Rounds during the Hot weather then the teams playing at night time have a tremendous advantage! Souths Players Games and Averages minutes: * Angus Crichton 11 games 79.7 * Damien Cook 11 games 76.3 * John Sutton 11 games 74 * Sam Burgess 11 games 65 his average is down due to playing reduced minutes against the Raiders (discipline) and going off injured after 30 minutes against the Cows. * Cameron Murray 9 games 52 * Tom Burgess 11 games 46.6 * George Burgess 11 games 38.5 * Junior Tatola 11 games 31.7 * M Nicholls 9 games 30.9 * J Clark 7 games 29.7 * K Turner 1 game 21 Some players have gone off for the HIA. The Rabbitohs will have no worries if the Interchange is dropped to 6. ************************************ I doubt that it will ever get to 4 Interchanges as you need to keep changes up your sleeve for HIA and Genuine Injuries that occur. This season Souths have had backs go off injured and not play the Full 80 minutes. GI against the Panthers, 47th min HIA, didn't return Jennings against the Dogs, 5th min HIA, returned then replaced at halftime. didn't return Reynolds against the Dragons, 71st min HIA, didn't return Kennar against the Broncos, 65th min, ankle didn't return Johnston against the Cows 23rd min, Hamstring didn't return S Burgess against the Cows, 30th min Glute didn't return Way too many!
jimmmy
Guest
Either the whirlwind like English super league or the middle finger , take your pick.
Johnno
Guest
You want to bring little men back more eg Phil Blake/Alan Langer/Greg Alexander types... But you wanna keep the big men too.. but I don't think we should go back to the 4-man replacement rule, i support 6 interchanges. Coz if we go to 4 replacement rule, sometimes you might have to come off for 10 to just rest a hamstring or get a pain killer, where as if 4 replacements rule, then you would have to be taken out for the rest of the match(unless it's a blood/or HiH stuff)... You look at the 1995 rugby league world cup, that had just a two man replacement rule from memory, and aussies won that and had big men on the field eg Chief/and Spud both were influential... 6 interchange rule, the endurance type player Gallen/Gary Larson/Bob Linder/Nathan Hindmarsh types will have a big impact though as they can tackle all day and do hit ups...
Jacko
Guest
Just leave the last 20 to the backs then.....they play 80 every week so are very used to it
sheek
Guest
Hi Tim, I'm a fan of the reduction in the interchange. I belong to a bygone era, when most props played the entire game alongside the nifty inside backs. Of course, at the end of 80 minutes the darting, scheming backs, still full of energy, would look to run their plays at tired, lumbering forwards. It made for a great gladiatorial spectacle. An acquaintance of mine, ex-Puma & ex-Wallaby prop Topo Rodriguez, was not an exceptionally big man, but considered his greatest attribute to be his endurance strength. He told me several times how bigger, opposing props would rough him up for the fist 35-40 minutes or so. But he knew the longer the game went on, he would eventually finish on top, especially in the last 20 minutes. That's what we want from our forwards, in both league & union - endurance strength. Of course, as the players got bigger, stronger & fitter, & the game got faster & the hits got harder, we needed to introduce interchange for both recovery & injuries. But I think 6 interchanges is right. It gets rid of the behemoths who I think are kind of cheating because they can bulk up & create mayhem for only 40 minutes. We need to get back to a sort of gladiatorial contest. What worries me more is the difference in pay scale according to position. You might find in the future, exceptional players in some positions (hooker, halves & fullback) & lots of journeymen in most other positions as players will attempt to hone their skills in the most valuable & coveted positions. Look at the game now. The greatest players are Smith (hooker), Cronk (halfback), Thurston (halfback/five-eighth), Inglis (fullback/centre) & Slater (fullback). Before them you had Lockyer (fullback/five-eighth) & johns (halfback/hooker). Is this where we want league to go? Players concentrating on a few positions because of skewered pay scales? In the 70s, not a particularly vintage decade for most, you had a brilliant ball-playing prop/2nd rower in Beetson, a dynamic 2nd rower in McCarthy, a free ranging lock in Coote, an agile, tricky centre/five-eighth in Fulton, & a wizardly, side-stepping fullback/cente in Langlands. Although at the end of his career, on the wing you had our greatest ever flankman, Irvine. It's important we retain the quality throughout all positions, & not favour some ahead of others.
Rellum
Roar Guru
No there isn't. What does that say about the development of the modern league player. They are supposed to be more skill-full now than ever yet the skillf-ull ball playing lock forward is basically gone.