There is a subtle balance that must be reached in Australia’s gameplan during the Irish series.
Warren Gatland implied during the Six Nations that Ireland were a significantly weaker team when the ball-in-play time was high.
“We looked at the stats over the years when we have played Ireland and anything over 44 minutes, we have won the games, and anything 37 minutes or below, they have won the games,” the Welsh coach said after Ireland’s win over Wales – a game in which the ball-in-play time was a mere 32 minutes and 57 seconds.
I’m inclined to agree with Gatland and this is borne out by the stats.
Ireland’s only two losses in 2017 coincided with the two games with the highest minutes-in-play stats. This was 43.03 minutes for the Scotland game and 46.13 minutes for the Wales game. The Irish win against an unbeaten England in 2017 had the lowest minutes-in-play stat of all Ireland’s Six Nations matches.
These stats make perfect sense when you watch Ireland. A great phase-play and set-piece team, that struggles with width both in defence and attack.
As good as Rob Kearney is, teams have the option of kicking the ball in-field without having to worry about being severely punished by counter attacks.
Ireland’s Rob Kearney. (AP Photo/Peter Morrison)
There is an argument for playing a wide, expansive game with a high minutes-in-play stat. Even more so when you consider Ireland are at the end of their season. The risks in this come in the form of two individuals: Six Nations player of the tournament Jacob Stockdale and new sensation Tadhg Beirne.
Stockdale is continuously improving his technique in the tackle and defensive reads. The winger scored three intercept tries during the Six Nations and takes risks that not many other players in Northern Hemisphere rugby are willing to take. If you go wide against Ireland, make sure every pass is accurate.
Beirne is at his best when teams play a wide-wide gameplan. He floats in the outside channels and can single-handedly destroy the width a team tries to play with. He might not have out-and-out power at the breakdown, but his intellect is akin to the great George Smith.
If Beirne gets enough game time, he is my prediction for player of the series. The remarkable Kildare-born second rower won the most number of turnovers of any player in any pro 14 season since 2010. According to Opta’s stats, Beirne won 39 turnovers (including 24 jackals) and was also the top-scoring forward (seven) in the pro 14.
To put Beirne’s turnover stats into context, he won 17 more than any other player in the competition. In a league containing Hamish Watson, Sam Warburton, Ellis Jenkins, Chris Cloete and Dan Leavy, this is no mean feat.
On top of that, Beirne also won the most number of turnovers in Europe’s premier club competition.
While Beirne’s stats are elite, it’s his footwork that stands out. He always takes the ball at speed and unlike many other locks, he attacks space when he carries. An example of this is the Champions Cup try of the year that he scored for Scarlets against Bath. Instead of trying to run over Anthony Watson, he read Watson’s body angle as he approached and sidestepped him.
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His size may count against him when it comes to his prospects of playing international rugby at lock, but his versatility means that he may see game time at 6 or 8. His presence in the squad may mean that Peter O’Mahony is overlooked for the captaincy, due to competition for the blindside position.
Leavy could benefit most from Beirne’s inclusion. A guaranteed starter and a huge breakdown presence, Leavy would be my choice as captain. He has experience captaining national underage teams and Ireland need strong communication with South African referee Marius van der Westhuizen on the breakdown.
Getting on top of Beirne and the Irish breakdown threat will be key for Australia’s hopes of playing an expansive game and keeping high ball-in-play time.
Hoy
Roar Guru
Thanks Kane... makes sense... in my mind, I think I thought the line was drawn immediately, because the tackled player has to go through the gate, regardless of whether there is another player there or not... but as you say, that is obviously just for that individual, and until a ruck, Hooper is free and easy wherever he floats... fair enough. Play on.
That was much more evident last year tman, this year not so much.
Fionn
Guest
It's a scarily good team even before the bench comes on :D
Fionn
Guest
It would be difficult to get past Stander there, surely? Mind you, O'Brien off the bench covering 7/8 sounds pretty good.
Fionn
Guest
Comments like this, Taylorman, make me wonder if you've actually watched either Pocock play this year or the new ruck laws, or whether you prepared this comment back in 2016.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Pocock may be one if the best iver the ball but hes also a specialist in that area, an area which is fast becoming a skill across all 15 players so imo hes going to have to broaden his skilset to have the same ongoing impact. Centres and wingers are now taking on the pilferer role so Pococks going to find himself in competition with more players ongoing. Its no longer a specialists role, no matter how good he is at it.
Bodger
Guest
Long time lurker. Looking forward to the international games, but especially looking forward to what the Wallabies can bring against the Irish. Looking forward to the team announcement tomorrow but my guess for the team Cheika will pick: Sio Paenga-Amosa Kepu Coleman Rodda Timu Pooper Genia Foley Koroibete Beale Kerevi DHP Folau Maybe a 6 2 bench Tupou Latu Robertson (originally thought Alaalatoa would be on the bench but think Robertson might get the nod) Simmons Tui Samu Phipps Hodge If 5 3 Tui to drop out and Banks in. I'm really looking forward to how our scrum goes, especially in the last 20min when I think this will be won or lost.
Cathal
Guest
Ireland (possible team to face Australia): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rob Herring, John Ryan; Iain Henderson, James Ryan; Peter O’Mahony (capt), Jordi Murphy, CJ Stander. Rumoured team. Sexton & Furlong looking like they aren’t starting, Leavy has a niggle which explains his absence. Could be completely wrong though but usually it isn’t.
Derm
Roar Guru
Well, the selection rumor mill has started. The Irish Times (normally a good informed predictor) has this as the possible team for Saturday: Back three: Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale; Midfield: Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki Half-backs: Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Front row Jack McGrath, Rob Herring, John Ryan; Locks: Iain Henderson, James Ryan; Backrowers: Peter O’Mahony (capt), Jordi Murphy, CJ Stander. No Sexton, Leavy, Ringrose, Furlong, Healy, Toner, Cronin to start, but some could be on the bench.
Kane
Roar Guru
If England perform poorly enough to have Eddie sacked, there is no way he'll be lining up for the Wallabies job.
Colm
Roar Guru
I can't see Eddie leaving England regardless of the result, Dennis. In the hypothetical situation you have outlined, Eddie Jones would seem to perfect fit, though. I'd happily take Cheika back in Irish rugby, for one of the director of rugby jobs.
Colm
Roar Guru
Thanks Nick, and congrats on the Pro14/Champions cup double. There is big news breaking in Ireland that Dan Leavy might not feature in the first test, due to a niggle. That would be a huge blow and I would make the Wallabies favourites if it were true. Murray Kinsella from the42: "Dan Leavy has been carrying a niggle this week, which could open the door for Jordi Murphy to come into the back row, while Jack Conan has been pushing for selection and Schmidt may be tempted to hand Tadhg Beirne a debut." So the options are: (A)move O'Mahony to 7 and bring in Beirne/Conan at 6 or (B) leave O'Mahony at 6 and bring in Murphy at 7. I'd be slightly worried about our defensive breakdowns with option(B.)
Kane
Roar Guru
The issue I have with the nipple line is that World Rugbys own research show that 70% of concussions occur to the tackler not the tackled player. So start penalising people for putting their head in stupid places when trying to tackle, TPN and Saia Faingaa come to mind.
Kane
Roar Guru
No I'm definitely talking about ruck/tackle. In the English Italian game last year the Italians would make a tackle but not send anyone in to make a ruck (needed to have one from each team over the ball to create a ruck). The referee would not allow them to come round and attack the ball as you would a maul if no defenders had engage, calling it offside at the tackle. But the referee would allow them to stand in the oppositions backline to prevent the halfback passing. Didn't see the Blues game but the maul defence what I believe they're referring to is, you still need a defender to create a maul. But if the ball is transferred before the defender joins then it become obstruction as you have someone in front of the ball carrier, if the jumper hasn't transferred then he's in front of all his own players there for not obstructing, he needs to be hit before passing the ball back to create a legal maul.
Kane
Roar Guru
The tackler must retire and re enter the gate if having a crack at the ball, so yes correctly penalised.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Nick, FTA on Channel 10. Well in Sydney anyway so am guessing in Brissie also. :)
Dennis Hopper Jr
Guest
Where would a series loss by the Wallabies leave Cheika? What if Ireland shut down the Wallabies and Schmidt comprehensively out coaches Cheika? Personally, I think Michael has a stranglehold on the board and the job, results be damned. But, (what if) England lose the series to the Bok in such an unbecoming fashion that one Edward tL Jones is suddenly on the head coaches market. Cheika is hardly universally loved by the Unwashed and Eddie would play the prodigal son role to a tee.
cuw
Guest
ur irritation am sure will take center stage - if these nipple tackle trials become serious. the issue is - they have looked at just one situ , where an upright or maybe slightly bent runner is being tackled by an upright or a slightly bent defender. BUT what about the rucks and the ruck clearance? many guys are flying in at the ruck - knee high - like the guy in X-Men who runs thru walls !!! then how do u legally clear people out at a ruck AND what about those who are flopping around? i just wonder about this whole " concern for safety thingy ". did u see the squire tackle on savea - that escaleted into a fight , a citing and a reprieve by judging panel. that is a situation that can happen at most rucks. on the one hand defenders are required to hit the attackers in order to continue the contest. on the other hand at certain events in rugger , it is becoming very difficult to execute within the legal parameters.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Genia’s pretty good though
cuw
Guest
i think ur talking about MAUL DEFENCE. the way i understood it was that unless the defending team engaged the attacking team no maul is created therefore the defender can attack the ball carrier. at the same time this has been made clear in recent super matches - i think in one Blues match? the ref said if at the lineout the jumper comes down and does not transfer the ball back then it is not a maul . but if the jumper successfully thru the hands manages to transfer the ball back then it becomes a maul. TBH i could not understand any of it - when the commentary stepped in and tried to explain the whole thing saying that the defending team had to first see if the ball is transfered back or still with the catcher and then tackle. i cant remember which match but the players were also confused with all those interpretations and explanations of ref - so it was nothing for me :D