The shortlist of bidders for the two additional A-League licences will be revealed on Monday 11 June. There is expected to be 4-6 bidders shortlisted from the 15 applications.
Word is it that Southern Expansion, Brisbane City and Team 11 (SE Melbourne) are safely through to the next round. This means there are up to three spots left for the rest.
In my opinion the following three will make the list.
Wollongong Wolves
I believe they will make it purely to keep Southern Expansion honest over the next four months before the winning bids are announced on 31 October 2018.
Only one of Wollongong or Southern Expansion will make it come October, not both. The Wolves have a ready-made stadium, successful history and a decent amount of community participants.
The Achilles heel for the Wolves and the Gong in general will be they haven’t got the financial clout or commercial power of a team based in a major city.
Corporate support will be vital for any new A-League team. The Wollongong area is primarily a rugby league town and soccer isn’t as big as the Wolves make it out to be, meaning there may not be many blue-chip investors around.
A community-based model sounds nice but won’t bring in money, which is what will ultimately pay the bills.
Also if we take out the two back-to-back titles at the start of the century would Wollongong really be spoken about as having a decent history?
Tasmania
The general football community would love to see a Tassie team purely for sentimental reasons. The Apple Isle doesn’t have a club team on the national stage in any sport. Having a whole state behind them kind of makes them a compelling case for having a big fan base.
The location of the team will be interesting, they would have to split games between Hobart and Launceston.
Commercially they will be like Wollongong, won’t draw the commercial support like a Sydney or Brisbane or Melbourne bid would – however, expanding the league down south would make the A-League feel like a true national competition.
West Melbourne
The fact they have promised a small stadium at Wyndham in the west of Melbourne puts them in the hunt or at least the conversation.
They are a point of difference to Victory and City much like Team 11. The west of Melbourne has a huge ethnic population who love football, they can also grab the burgeoning Geelong region if they are clever.
The only issue is whether the A-League will want to risk upsetting Melbourne City, even though west Melbourne is different, at the end of the day it’s still part of Melbourne.
Would the A-League want a financial powerhouse like Melbourne City having an even smaller market to try and build a bigger fan base? This is the issue team 11 will have as well.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Other bids who genuinely have a chance are South West Sydney and MacArthur although both won’t get in. Both are part of the highest growing population in NSW, there is a stadium ready to go at Campbelltown and possibly a new stadium in the works in Liverpool in line with the new airport.
MacArthur have a billionaire financial backer now too. The only issue with these two is the Wanderers have plenty of fans in this area and they have played plenty of games at Campbelltown already.
Liverpool and MacArthur fans have not complained about the Wanderers not engaging with them. The Wanderers will be happy to cover these regions. Parramatta Stadium isn’t that hard at all to get to via train from Liverpool or Campbelltown (20-45 mins).
The lesser chances are South Melbourne, Adelaide and Ipswich.
South Melbourne have made lots of noise but their stadium is too close to City and Victory and really isn’t that great for football anyway.
An Adelaide derby isn’t as appealing as other big city derbies. Ipswich doesn’t have as big an appeal as Brisbane City.
The bids with no chance would be Gold Coast, Belgravia Leisure, Canberra and Fremantle City. None of them have great commercial support and are not advanced enough in their bids.
Matthew
Guest
Bring in: Tasmania have two wealthy backers and government support for a team and willing to build a stadium. They should get a licence. Brisbane City but need their own stadium. Wollongong Canberra Macarthur United SE Melbourne FC
Neu Wien
Guest
Canberra is clearly ahead of any other regional bid, including Wollongong and Tasmania. -Population: Immediate city population greater (Canberra 400k, Wollongong 280k, Hobart 200k) as well as broader region population (Canberra region 900k, Broader Illawarra/Sth Coast region 540k, Tasmania state 520k) -Stadium: Has the infrastructure in place in Canberra Stadium, on par with Wollongong and ahead of -Existing W-league and Youth teams: something neither other bid offers -Talent: Canberra has had far more football talent come through than Tasmania, and is probably on par with Wollongong, and has 30k official football participation -Disposable income: Canberra has the highest average income in Australia = more discretionary income to spend on entertainment Now I don't think that means Canberra will be chosen ahead of Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane teams, but it definitely shouldn't be dismissed ahead of teams like Tasmania or Wollongong. Ideal expansion timeframe would be: 2018-19: current teams with hopefully a boost to ratings from world cup and expansion hype 2019-20: two new teams: Brisbane City (existing stadium - Ballymore/Suncorp), SW Sydney (existing stadium- Cambelltown) 2020-21: Wellington Licence expires, replaced by Canberra (existing stadium) 2021-22: two new teams: West or SE Melbourne (new stadium), Tasmania (new stadium) or Wollongong 2022-23: final year of TV deal, negotiate new TV deal in aftermath of 2022 World Cup and new expansion teams, ideally including provision for a 2nd division
Timmuh
Roar Guru
A possibility, but the 'gong is its own place. From outside, not being Sydney seems part of the identity. Why would anyone support a Sydney when they have expectations, or at least what they believe as realistic hopes, of having their own team not that far away.
Rolly
Guest
Newcastle is NSW 2nd largest city Wollongong is NSW third largest city .CCM is a smaller city than wollońgong the central coast is a smaller region than the Illawarra on the south coast .wollongong standalone
Nic Craig
Roar Rookie
Good Point. Wollongong has a much smaller population (280,705) to Newcastle (546,788) and is about 80 km closer to Sydney than Newcastle, meaning supporting a Sydney team is a possibility. More people simply means more potential fans, which is what all football clubs need.
Nic Craig
Roar Rookie
The only thing I can see actually see happening with expansion would be an extra team in both Victoria(Geelong or western Melbourne) and New South Wales (Campbelltown or Wollongong) Smaller bids like Tasmania, Gold Coast and a second Adelaide team would just simply not have the infrastructure, financial base fan base needed to sustain an A-League team.
realfootball
Guest
That Brisbane attendance fall was 100% the work of John Aloisi. He now has to undo the damage or he's gone. He's recruited well after recruiting disastrously last season, so he may have learned from his mistakes. We'll see, but if the results aren't good, he'll be gone within 6 weeks next season. We'll get a better picture during pre season. Last year's pre season reflected exactly how the team would perform in the season proper.
Mark
Guest
I do agree it may dilute the standard of the A-League, at least initially. I’m very circumspect about arguments that it will improve the standard of players we produce - the expansion of Australian clubs in Super Rugby shows this is a furphy. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, though, since changes in audiences for the A-League have not always followed changes in the standard of the competition. However, I don’t think it will have any impact on the movement of our players overseas. The major barriers to our players moving overseas are not being up to the standard of the league in general, or clubs being able to get better players for a limited number of import positions. The standard of the A-League has no bearing on these.
jonno
Guest
southern Sydney may be a shoe in to you not to me though .three different regions no fan base and 30% of Sydney fc fan base is from st george area .You will not get any fans from the south coast supporting it no one in Wollongong wants anything to do with this southern sydney suburban bid.so they might as well take us the south coast out of the equation . we want our own team in Wollongong wolves or nothing .there are no synergies between wollongong and sydney two different cities .Wollongong standalone or nothing .
Timmuh
Roar Guru
The ACT also has a larger economy. Number of people is one measure. Wealth concentrated in one city rather than two, or three, distinct markets. I don't think Canberra is any chance, but it is ahead of Tasmania which would quickly become only Hobart anyway due to lack of venues. That said, a genuinely island wide club I will become a member. I would finally have someone to support in the league.
jonno
Guest
South coast 13,000 registered juniors 15,000 registered players encompasses the shoalhaven southern highlands and wollongong and shellharbour city this whole area encompasses the illawarra region .it has a bigger population than canberra . the days of league being a strong hold has long gone thats when the steelers were in the NRL since the forced merger which is a proven failure more than half the crowds at win stadium for the paltry three games a season come from Sydney .the days of league strong hold went with the steelers .its a misconception .more kids play soccer in the illawarra than do league .Wollongong is nsw third largest city .Bruce Gordon and others have stated they will back them
jonno
Guest
southern Sydney may be a shoe in to you not to me though .three different regions no fan base and 30% of Sydney fc fan base is from st george area .You will not get any fans from the south coast supporting it no one in Wollongong wants anything to do with this southern sydney suburban bid.so they might as well take us the south coast out of the equation . we want our own team in Wollongong wolves or nothing .there are no synergies between wollongong and sydney two different cities .Wollongong standalone or nothing .
pot stirrer
Guest
What is the strategy behind expansion ? imo its only going to delete the quality by spreading the talent even further and force youngsters who show potential over seas earlier to play in stronger competitions becuase that is how you get better. It seems to me FB's only just starting to be recognised by mainstream media becuase the quality has been improving and now their going to take 3 steps back again.
Kangas
Roar Rookie
Wollongong has over a 100 years of history, stacks of Socceroos, plenty of New South Wales success as well as national soccer league success A terrific stadium by the Pacific Ocean , perfect for summer football. The Illawarra has more history and success then this story gives credit .
sydster1@iinet.net.au
Guest
SW Sydney and the Dandenong team seem the right approach if we're following what Gallop has been saying since the Rugby League Super League days - teams chosen for expansion will primarily be chosen by the edict "fish where the fish are".Southern Expansion has been egging Sydney FC for a long time to receive a reaction and received one yesterday , and they fired back at Sydney FC which is exactly what they wanted. Anyone with any nous with the geography of Sydney will tell you St George/Sutherland with the Illawarra are not close by and therefore the bid is flawed , my gut instinct though is this bid will go close , anyone who recalls Morris Iemma as the Premier of NSW will advise handle with care , or even better steer clear
Nick Symonds
Guest
Newcastle had the 3rd highest average attendance last season at 12,560. 1) Melbourne Victory - 17,489 2) Sydney FC - 14,888 3) Newcastle - 12,560 4) Wanderers - 11,924 SUB 10,000 - 5) Adelaide United - 9,830 6) Melbourne City - 9,728 7) Perth Glory - 9,186 8) Brisbane Roar - 9,093 9) Mariners - 7,194 10) Wellington - 5,694
Fadida
Guest
As a Tasmanian I sadly agree Real. The only way it can work is if they have a very wealthy backer who's prepared to finance a 10k stadium, and can base a budget on sub 5k crowds
Kris
Guest
City of Wyndham (the Western Melbourne bid) population 217,122 City of Hobart 220,000
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
If the A League can handle a team from Newcastle, what's the problem with Wollongong?
realfootball
Guest
Agree on Brisbane. The lack of mass cut through with Brisbane Roar hasn't been encouraging, but maybe local comp is what they need. It worked in Sydney. The problem is the lack of geographical differentiation in Brisbane. Anything, please, that means I don't have to attend 4/5 empty Suncorp except for derbies. Such an underwhelming experience. Suncorp has been a dead albatross around the Roar's collective necks since day 1.