Carlton are coming off what was probably their most embarrassing performance under Brendon Bolton – goalless and 70 points in arrears to half-time against a travelling Fremantle.
Make no mistake, the Dockers are themselves a bottom six side, with an average losing margin of almost ten goals outside of Perth this year.
After 13 rounds, the Blues sit 18th on the ladder with one win and a percentage of 61.9.
In 2015, when Mick Malthouse was unceremoniously dumped by Carlton, at the same point of the season they were 16th with three wins and a percentage of 73.2.
Brendon Bolton was appointed Carlton senior coach in August of 2015. This is his third season.
In 2016 at Round 13, they had six wins and a percentage of 84.7. In 2017, it was five wins and a percentage of 82.7.
Whichever way you cut it, the Blues are having their worst year in the last four, and by a space. Things are looking grim.
Carlton have turned over their list dramatically under Bolton. Including rookies from 2015, there are only 12 players remaining at the club from the 46 that were on the list when Bolton took over.
Coach of the Blues Brendon Bolton. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Since 2015, Sam Docherty has become an All-Australian and one of the premier half-backs in the competition. Patrick Cripps looked like becoming a superstar and has lived up to it. Matthew Kruezer has got some continuity into his football under Bolton, and has become the ruckman fans have long been hoping for.
These three important players have become measurably better. Docherty has clearly been missed thanks to an ACL, and Kruezer is only now working into his season after some injury hiccups earlier in the year.
The evergreen Kade Simpson is still a beacon of consistency. Marc Murphy is still a high quality midfielder, but has only played four matches this year, something the struggling Blues can ill afford. Liam Jones has re-emerged to become better as a key defender than he ever was as a forward.
Dale Thomas was brought over to the Blues by Malthouse, and is having by far his best season since his premiership coach was let go. Ed Curnow is having a career year, winning more of the ball than ever before but also continuing a high standard with his defensive actions.
That’s eight players that are still on the list from 2015 that are better than they were, or still of reasonable quality. Three of the best five have been injured – we’ve seen what has happened to an outfit like Adelaide this year, and Carlton are coming from a far lower base.
Sam Rowe is much the same player as he was, but it wouldn’t have been in the plans to still have him as part of the side in 2018, and he wouldn’t be getting a game anywhere else. Levi Casboult is Levi Casboult. Nick Graham is a list-clogger. Ciaran Byrne was on the rookie list in 2015, and is on the main list now but has had a long history of injuries.
Of Carlton’s 2015 list, eight players ended up at other clubs.
Chris Yarran and Troy Menzel were clear busts for Richmond and Adelaide respectively. Tom Bell hasn’t fared much better at Brisbane. It’s hard to think Dylan Buckley will amount to much at GWS.
Lachie Henderson, Zach Tuohy and Bryce Gibbs were senior players, and all requested trades to more successful clubs. This fit in with Carlton’s strategic list build of hitting the draft, with the only flop bringing in Billie Smedts as part of the Tuohy deal, who lasted 12 months.
Bryce Gibbs before his trade to Adelaide. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Billy Gowers was on the Blues rookie list in 2015, and has been a bright spot at the Western Bulldogs this year, starting in the same place.
It’s not as if the delisted or traded players from Carlton have been a glittering array of stars, or gone onto great things.
Bringing in the likes of Aaron Mullett, Sam Kerridge, Jed Lamb, Cam O’Shea, Andrew Phillips and Matthew Lobbe makes for easy pickings, adding a lot of dead wood to the pile of smouldering rubble that is the Carlton list. Maybe Darcy Lang, Jarrod Pickett and Jarrod Garlett will be the same. That’s 20 per cent of the list.
But Matthew Wright has made them better. Caleb Marchbank and Lachie Plowman have too. Matthew Kennedy should.
From recent drafts, Charlie Curnow has the football world salivating. Sam Petrevski-Seton, Zac Fisher and Paddy Dow, all in their first or second year, have shown moments of class that assure us they will become very good players, and incidentally, all three are in the top five for tackles at the Blues this year.
One of the problems with stripping a list right back in such a short period of time is that it’s impossible to get all decisions right, both in strategy and in selections, whether draft or targeting from other clubs. Getting it wrong in the case of experienced players is easier to tell, as in the case of Smedts. With draft picks, it can be three, four, five years. Sometimes more.
One draft pick in a round of 18 isn’t a lot. And really, are the chances of finding a prospective All-Australian or best-and-fairest winner that much better in the 20s as opposed to later on. And how are we to know whether it is the player himself of the development coaches that extract the most from their talent.
The drastic list turnover also means no continuity within the club – players take time to learn how to play with each other, and re-learning it with so many new faces each must take a toll. Friendships are made and broken. The players that survive one year play with the guillotine hanging over them the next.
Coaches must also put in a lot of time each year, forming new relationships, learning about their new players. Does this detract from the development of others? There are only so many hours in the day, only so much energy people have.
Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Confidence goes up a little with each win that comes along, but down a lot when the losses start piling up, as they inevitably do. Players are fragile, lose hope along the way, and need to be built up again.
It’s possible that Brendon Bolton is too structured, leaving young players caught in two minds – follow the coaches instructions, or play the way that got them drafted in the first place. It’s not easy to quell your own instinct in the service of some grander plan.
There was no joy in Carlton’s play on Saturday against Fremantle. No sense that it was just a game, and a fun one to play at that. There was no connectivity.
Success has many fathers, so the saying goes, and failure is an orphan. That doesn’t seem to be the case at the Blues. Their failures are myriad.
The road was long at the start of Bolton’s reign. It might well be longer now. That doesn’t mean the path they’re on won’t ultimately lead them into the light.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Talk about digging up old comments... I didn't say Buckley made the Pies progressively worse, I said their results got progressively worse. That's a simple fact. Buckley was willing to risk going backwards on that front to build the side his way and now he's seeing the benefits. It wasn't the criticism that you're making it out to be. My analogy was in the context of a coach needing time to turn a list over to make it his own and fully develop his preferred game plan. Bolton has had to do the same thing, following on from the same coach - albeit from a different end of the ladder - and 2018 was really his first season of clear air. As long as the side shows steady improvement in 2019 (and they largely have, in terms of being more competitive, the Roos game aside) then he should have the opportunity to keep coaching. If they stall or go backwards then he should be under pressure. And I am a Bombers fan, for reference, so Carlton is one of the few sides I dislike more than the Pies.
Bobby
Guest
Precisely here is where ppl get things wrong - saying Buckley made pies progressively worse is manipulation reality because he started with pies at the top. Comparing it then to a coach to started with a team on the bottom and claim success when they “improve” is a logical fallacy that sets up a false equivalency designed to grind a subjective axe. Another way of saying it would be that Buckley took Pies to finals in his first two years (and he’s back there now! - made finals in 4/8 years).
Bobby
Guest
Yep fair enough / almost every comment you make on Roar is wrong so I predict that pretty much everything you say is wrong as it usually is
Bobby
Guest
Noooooooooo, Tim didn’t write that Carlton would be better than Collingwood in 4-5 years he said they were heading in different directions - Carlton up, Collingwood down. Wrong on both counts. And Macca need I remind you that on that article you engaged in a series of comparisons that various nobody Carlton players were superior to DeGoey and Moore etc. People need to admit it when they are wrong. Cue Macca in 2030 when Carlton pass Collingwood “see Tim Lane and I were Right!”
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I agree, Eddie Maguire in the extensive interview he gave on trying to get Judd said that Judd's primary question was how are you going to get the deal done? He said that the Collingwood response was to say leave that to us we will get it done. Judd was aware that West Coast were not keen to deal with Collingwood who they saw as a strong competitor in future finals. While we look at this now it seems fairly straight forward, but I recall that at the time it was considerably more complex and West Coast were looking to trade several of the Pies young but up and coming midfielders. Also, I seem to recall that the Collingwood or another club had high draft picks that made it harder to predict where Judd might have ended up if he went to the draft.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Like I said above chris, with all this talk whats the chance the Blues get up and beat us by a point?
Fat Toad
Guest
I remember the comments, but they were made in relation to a realistic assessment of where the list was really up to in comparison to what some other members of the board had said in public. Also, in the context that he admitted that for too long members of the board had sold the lie that don't worry we will be great this year and much of the support angst was stemming from false hopes and expectations sown and watered by the administration. As an outsider, it seems to me that Carlton's administration and fans' lack of ability to be fundamentally honest to each other is most of the reason why they are in the predicament they are in now.
Macca
Guest
So you believe that despite being out of contract at the Eagles Judd was worried that if a deal couldn't get done he would have been forced to return to the Eagles instead of simply going to the pre-season draft where he would have been picked up by Carlton? Or do you believe that he was so worried about ending up at Carlton in the pre-season draft he decided to agree to sign with the club who could guarantee a trade would take place - Carlton. Judd's concern was that the eagles got fair compensation, the blues had a plan a were able to advise Judd what it was, Collingwood were not able to do that.
Fat Toad
Guest
They have a song?
Fat Toad
Guest
When Judd was coming back to Victoria, he was not emotionally linked to any club it was to be near his sick father. The Eagles agreed to his return but ultimately had the potential to stop the move. In the end most clubs pulled out because they did not believe they would be able to get the Eagles to agree. Based on an interview I remember from Eddie Maguire, Collingwood persisted and in the end presented Judd with an offer nominally superior to what Carlton were offering. According to Maguire, Judd's only comment was tell me how can you get the deal done? He was concerned that the trade period would lapse and that he would have to go back to the Eagles with his father in Melbourne. To ensure the deal was completed, he opted for Carlton because he knew that the Eagles would not object to him going to a club that the Eagles did not see as a threat to them.
Fat Toad
Guest
Absolutely correct.
Fat Toad
Guest
I started going to games in 1966 and watched as Carlton were involved in any number of dodgy situations even predating John Elliott. While I feel sorry for my mates that support the Blues for the way the club has failed to develop a corporate culture capable of delivering any chance of success, I have no sympathy (none) for the club who has been repeatedly caught cheating and making false declarations. I would happily see Carlton go to Tasmania and get renamed as the Tassie Convicts.
Macca
Guest
Judd is o record saying he chose the blues over Collingwood because the blues were able to articulate their trade plans (ie what they were going to give up), Collingwood told him not to worry about that. Given the eagles had no real choice in the matter and risked losing Judd to the blues for nothing I have serious doubts over the validity of your story.
Fat Toad
Guest
People seem to forget that the Judd did not come to Carlton, but to Victoria. His only desire was to be near his father who had a terminal illness. His arrival at Carlton was determined by the Eagles who would only clear him to a club that was not a finals threat. So effectively, Carlton got Judd not because of their potential or clever recruiting, they got him because the Eagles thought Carlton incompetent. Conversely, the Eagles made it clear that despite Collingwood's interest because of the quality of their list at the time he would never be cleared to Collingwood.
Fat Toad
Guest
The reason people get described as experts is that they are supposed to have greater insight that the everyday fan. The problem with Tim Lane's comment was that it seemed to be focussed on the scores rather than the potential for improvement. From my watching of Carlton, I could not see where their improvement was going to originate. Years of list mismanagement can not be overcome so easily or quickly. In contrast, Collingwood showed potential for improvement; balls needed to be delivered into the forward line in a way that gave their forwards a chance and they needed a player in the half back line capable of breaking the lines that is someone fast and prepared to run. I suppose that in support of Tim Lane, you might argue that the problem was Buckley and the solution was Bolton, but after his time in the media, most experts who had worked with Buckley agreed that Buckley's insights into the game and his analysis were excellent. Bolton never seems to have had the same level of analysis and now his initial improvement after Malthouse looks more like a dead cat bounce than an upward trend.
Chris
Guest
The Blues will put up stern resistance this coming Sunday. The thought of playing against their arch rivals and enemy will get them jumping about. Moreover, the thrashing they copped last week will get wanting revenge. This potentially could be a banana skin for the Maggies considering the fact that they have just had a bye. I want them to go for the blues jugular. No mercy is warranted with the old foe.
Glenn
Roar Rookie
This rebuild has to be at least the full 5 year Philly style "The Process" because of how hit and miss the draft is. SOS has had 3 drafts and clearly needs another 2 before we can view his list build critically. I don't think Carlton people will give Bolton that long though. Fans would rather see you kick 15 goals and concede 20 like Brisbane or Essendon does than struggle to kick 10 and lose anyway.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
From Wikipedia: "Judd met with four clubs: Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood and Carlton. On 2 October 2007, Judd announced that his preferred club was Carlton, and Carlton was also considered most likely to secure a trade with West Coast, because the club held two early draft picks which could be used in negotiations." I agree that Hawthorn has had a strong culture in the modern period, but they did have problems with some of their players that Judd would have been aware of in the period before his move.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
There is no one more emotionally invested in comments about Freo than you, anon. My optimism isn't a scratch on your blind bitterness.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Who did he 'inherit'? Sandi, Ballas and Hill. Good to see you admit Ballas, Johnno and Pearce are good (even though 2 of them are just depth players now). So, that's 3 he has 'inherited'. The rest were developed by Ross and his team. Walters and Fyfe were taught by Lyon. Harvey didn't want Fyfe. Everyone else have only played under Lyon.