How exactly does one go about throwing a World Cup match?
In a tournament where the previous finalists Germany and Argentina are going through titanic battles just to escape their groups, and Spain, Portugal and Brazil have all had their hairy moments, it seems an indulgence for both England and Belgium to be able to toss aside their last group match against each other.
Not only that, but reports that Belgium could rest as many as ten players (an entire team minus one) indicate that they clearly want to finish second in their group.
Yes, it’s conspiracy theory time, but I’m more laughing about it than brooding.
This decade, major tournaments have curiously developed massively unbalanced knockout rounds. Holland squeezed through two lightweight halves of the draw in the previous two World Cups.
The classic example, however, comes from merely two years ago, when Portugal on their way to Euro 2016 glory played one opponent out of six who had reached the previous World Cup, while Spain lost to Italy who lost to Germany who lost to France on the other side.
Argentina and Germany’s struggles have likely placed the classical names all on one half of the draw, opening a deep Russia 2018 experience for two of Switzerland, Mexico, Colombia, Senegal, Japan, Denmark, Croatia and so on. And… Belgium? England?
Belgium-England had originally promised to be the second-best match of the first round. Instead, while Portugal-Iran, Argentina-Nigeria, Mexico-Sweden, Brazil-Serbia and Senegal-Colombia all throw down in desperate final confrontations, Belgium-England now promises something else entirely.
Eden Hazard in Belgium colours. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)
Something never seen before in World Cup history? A tied situation means that a draw between the two will involve a tie-breaker of fair play points. That is – the lesser number of team yellow and red cards wins the group.
While unfortunately-timed yellow cards can cost teams tournaments, if Belgium’s subs can all stomach the yellow load and quietly go back to the bench the rest of the tournament, it could be mission accomplished.
And who can blame them? If Belgium find themselves on a path with one of only Croatia and Spain between them and a World Cup final, I could almost back them to win it all. If they conversely finish first, their path would likely involve Colombia, a quarter-final against Germany or Brazil and another huge semi-final struggle.
This is not unknown in World Cup history. West Germany in 1954 beat Hungary 3-2 after their B team had lost to them 3-8.
I expect England to ‘naively’ play to win and to indeed win, as a young team like them wants momentum, and I don’t see Gareth Southgate as the type to play games.
Gareth Southgate, Manager of England (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)
Given Belgium’s dreadful fragility against anyone ‘up for it’ on the day, however, they would be playing a dangerous game with their always shaky morale. They were classical flat-track bullies in being outfought and defeated by Italy and Wales in Euro 2016 – the gifted Belgians losing to the two teams willing to scrap.
I imagine everyone on the field will try their best. It’s the World Cup! Professionals, heck anyone, lives for these moments. But B teams are B teams.
It’s an open World Cup. Everyone except Croatia, Uruguay, Belgium and England has had their struggles. It will be an even more open World Cup when France, Portugal, Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Belgium all knock each other out.
Or not. Insert wink emoji here.
James Butcher
Roar Rookie
Why are you trying to pretend that there's a consensus and that everyone in England, press and public are booking tickets to the final. Seems to me that half would like England to try and win against Belgium and half think that they should lose to be put in the easier (not easy) side of the draw. Seems like there's a fair bit of projecting your own prejudices going on. Standard fare.
Andrew
Roar Guru
This is classic England - assume there is an "easy" side of the draw, as if Colombia and Japan are somehow far beneath them ala Iceland. If you don't have the mentality of thinking you can beat anyone in your path you're not going to win the World Cup. Reading the press over here you'd think that England have a bye through to the Quarter Finals.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
No, the way things are going there probably is no one to be afraid of.
MQ
Guest
Pointless looking too far ahead with so many upsets. England and Belgium should take the opportunity to rest players for bigger battles ahead. Freshen up the whole squad, they really don't have to fear anyone remaining in the tournament.
Hawker
Guest
Uruguay have only looked good in their last game. In tournament football its all about getting out of the group then it gets fair dinkum from here on end.
hawker
Guest
Oh yeah I don't think its a given Colombia will win tonight or even qualify for that matter. They have the attacking weapons to worry England/Belgium who lets be honest haven't been tested themselves and won't be tonight by the sounds of it
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
I agree with you about needing to keep momentum going.
me too
Guest
given results we've seen i'd take nothing for granted and certainly not try to manipulate a second placed finish. both teams have been playing very good football and need to keep that momentum going. It can turn in a game, as we saw with mexico, who must be counting their blessings that south korea got them through.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
Yeah Croatia is the blueprint. Rest one or two names, play one or two names still, play normal, take your chances.
HardcorePrawn
Roar Guru
In looking ahead to the quarter-finals and the potential for an easier path to the final, both nations (or perhaps just their media, and Bobby Martinez) appear to be massively under-estimating their next round opponents, a mistake that England did in the 2016 Euros. There's no guarantee either team will get past Japan, Colombia or Senegal in the round of 16. All three look beatable, but on their day could provide a scare, and neither England or Belgium have been seriously tested yet at this tournament, and are now looking likely to not face a serious test in this final group match either.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
France, Argentina, Portugal and Uruguay are all big names but the only one of those four actually playing well is Uruguay.
Gil
Guest
I expect they will both largely play their B teams. The game itself may depend on what happens earlier in Group H. If Colombia top it I expect both teams to basically want top spot and a regular game to ensue. Not suggesting they will be desparate but going at it rationally like Croatia did against Iceland. Your right though if Japan top Group H and Colombia come 2nd it gets really interesting. Suddenly the winner gets Colombia and then Brazil whilst the loser has Japan followed by Sweden or Switzerland. Would either consider own goals or a red card to lose the discipline battle. You'd have to at least consider Phile Jones laying a few exuberant tackles or Jamie Vardy placing himself in front of the ball at every free kick conceded.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
Colombia's defence looks very average though. Don't reckon they'll beat either, may not even qualify from group. Beating Senegal not a given.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
Frankly I don't know what to expect from this game. And that's after writing an (admittedly tangential) article on it!
Hawker
Guest
Agreed they had absolute dream run. I do fancy a POR v ARG qtr final.. Messi v Ronaldo in WC would be one to savour
HardcorePrawn
Roar Guru
"Portugal on their way to Euro 2016 glory played one opponent out of six who had reached the previous World Cup" Not only that, but Portugal managed only win in 90 minutes throughout the entire tournament, the 2-0 victory over Wales in the semi final. They drew each of their group games, against opponents they should have, on paper, have beaten fairly easily (Hungary, Iceland & Austria), only getting through to the knock-out stages by dint of being one of the best third placed finishers. They needed extra time to get past Croatia, extra time & penalties to beat Poland, then came Wales, then the final against France went to extra time too.
Hawker
Guest
I think if Colombia manage to top Group H (beat Senegal , Japan don't beat Poland) they could beat Group G 2nd place , or least its almost a 50/50 game.
James
Guest
Id agree that it could be possible for both teams to try to lose if they both hadnt won so well the last two games. Momentum is a powerful thing in a knock out competition, especially with this England side being so young. I think both teams will rest a few key attacking players and tell their replacements that if they score a hat trick they play the next game. Im hoping for a really good game with basically no defending.