State of Origin 3 stats preview: There's no such thing as a dead rubber

Tim, is there a chance the track could bend?

All that makes sense but it’s perhaps not how your first post reads. So what you’re effectively saying is the team with the better players will usually win. Ok. Not exactly ground breaking. I still don’t get your point about Slater. In one post you say he’s a dud made to look better by the players around him. The next it’s that Queensland are a team of duds made to look better by Slater et al. Its also not just the spine, over the past two series Queensland has also lost Boyd, Scott, Myles, Thaiday and Gillett. Regardless of how many NSW players I’d pick they’ve still only edged past Queensland in the two games so far. Hopefully NSW win for years to come but I haven’t seen anything to me that objectively proves NSW are entering a period of dominance. To me it looks like we’re back to two pretty even sides where one team wins a couple, then the other, then back again.

Like I said, it hasn't impacted the Dragons system, but it doesn't make him a great defender that can fit into any system

But Hess has lost all impact as a running forward over the past 12 months.He used to be devastating with the ball on the edge. He is now just a "dime a dozen' backrower with a defensive bent, scaring no defensive lines in the past 12 months, whilst Wallace's form is just as ordinary but with less playing minutes. Surely only injuries to others have given these two another shot at the big time ?

But he has probably had more forwards running at him than almost any other NRL player, apart from perhaps Jimmy Maloney. Missed tackle stats can still be quite misleading if the target players have good mop up backrowers and centres around these edges to reduce the impact of their missed tackles.

Graham, if you substitute Gagai for Chambers, and Morgan on the bench for Slater, that would be my Qld team for next year. Certainly not dynasty-era quality, but very competitive.

Gotta say though, if I wrote nearly 40 articles in two months I'd be taking a long break too

Baz, my point is that we have all been hoodwinked for years by propaganda that QLD "want it more" , or that NSW " just don't get it" , or QLD "has a better SOO cuture ". My claim is that QLD have dominated the past 12 years only because they have had the best cattle via their future "immortals" spine players. Without these great players now, they are a pretty ordinary SOO team. And as the series has shown they have been beaten by a team of junior NSW SOO players who will only be getting better now with every game. Now they play again tonight with QLD losing a further two of their current best players in Inglis & Ponga, and desperately hoping that a retry of DCE might pay off ? I am not talking about any NSW dynasty here, but I say right now that NSW has the better cattle of these two teams. And the best cattle will win you most games. I am with Tom Rock here. I'm not wanting to bag anyone, but I want a lot of the myths busted tonight with a Blues clean sweep. It will be the cattle that counts not the propaganda. Baz, if you could have your pick of 17 players out of these two SOO squads to make up your new look 2019 Dogs team. Which of the QLD players would you be picking in your squad of 17 ? eg. Billy or Teddy ? Cleary or DCE ? Cook or McCullough ? I might suggest you wouldn't be picking very many of these QLD players in front of their NSW counterparts ? Which is something that we would never have considered just 2 or 3 years ago .

Barry, I see all the hype in the Thurston, Cronk, and the man they call Cam retiring but the issues in the Qld team from my point of view is the lack of go forward from the forwards. Jai Arrow came on in game 2 in the second half from memory and made a bit of an impact. Other than that McGuire is the other that has put in a big effort in attack. If Qld are going to avoid a loss, Oates will need to have a massive game coming in to help out getting the ball back off the line and so will every other player to help out the under performing forwards. Nsw, aren't a great side. They are a good side who believe in themselves and What Fittler has done should be commended. But they haven't won either game by much against an arguably busted Qld team. Without wanting to rain of NSW's parade because they have put in good effort and deserve the spoils and took their chances, I can't help thinking that QLD gave up and lost this series more than NSW overcame QLD and beat them. Next Year, NSW as a unit will be better for the run. Who knows where form of the players for either side will be come May next year. But Qld will need to find some dependable forwards if they don't want to be out-muscled again next year.

This will be another close one, there has been very little between the teams this series. Fittler was part of the clean sweep teams in 96 & 00 so wouldn’t put it past him to conjure up a third sweep. Would love to see it despite it being Slaters farewell, he has won plenty !!! Carn da Blues !!

Thanks for the link MC... Shame Jay Ross has dropped off the face, he had some interesting articles. I'd love Mushi to bang one out about statistical analysis in the NRL.

Yes it's a hard one. the winning side gets the shield in front of neutrals. But it seems unfair on a team to lose a series without having had the opportunity of a home game.

I think one stat that can be omitted is penalties conceded, particularly if we're comparing club form to origin.

Of course, Queensland are worse from having Smith, Thurston and Cronk retire. I agree this is the worst Queensland side we've seen in a decade...but that's pretty much irrelevant in isolation and out of context. What does that say about NSW that we've scraped two not entirely convincing wins against Queensland's 'worst side in a decade'? Add to that Queensland have had injuries to Slater, Morgan, Napa, Inglis, Ponga, Gillett, Scott and McGuire and haven't played a home game yet in this series. I'm quietly confident of a NSW win tonight but talk of dynasties after #oneinarow is cheap and meaningless. Tom Rock was bagging me before game one because I wouldn't get on board with a 40-0 flogging. This feels the same. Do you really think NSW has been dominant in these two games? The hubris from NSW supporters is staggering and embarrassing at times given we've had two narrow wins in a series where pretty much everything has gone right for us and Queensland have had to deal with a tonne of bad luck. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt Albo and assume this is a bit tongue in cheek and trying to fire up a few Queenslanders rather than a serious assessment of the series so far.

Hunt's defence hasn't impacted the Dragons success but I wouldn't say he's been defending well, he's racked up the second highest missed tackles in the league

I wouldn't worry about Wallace and Hess' lack of meters. Their defence has been perfect leading the stats in tackling. QLD forwards have won the territory battle and there is no way I'd drop a young improving Hess and Wallace who are 2 of QLDs most promising plyaers

Chambers is defending pretty well next to Croft/Jacks/Hughes now though at Club level? Hunt is defending well at Club level, not so much at SOO level though.

Come on Baz ! Be honest . This is the worst QLD side we have seen in over a decade. Now devoid of most of their "immortals" who have carried them over the period. Don't be scared of that mythical QLD "kulture" and those "pick & stick" mantras. They have been fully exposed this series, as just QLD generated myths, and now following those certain player retirements, these myths will be completely obliterated tonight with the Blues clean sweep. I hope we can send Slater out as a last series loser, and expose his greatness as being generally like many, reliant on those other immortals around him all his career. When it comes to greatness in rugby league it is always provided by the quality of the cattle, not the confected propaganda. Right now, the NSW cattle has shown itself to be dominant this series , and there is nothing to suggest that the loss of Inglis & Ponga and the grasping of the DCE straw , is likely to change anything tonight.

Add to that, game 1 was won on two decisions that could have gone either way in todays game (not calling them wrong, just saying they certainly weren't clear cut) and game 2 was won off the back of a penalty try, and you certainly dont have the massive advantage the stats paint it to be. QLD to win, big margin, claim they scored more in the series thus better (ala 2014!)

Its a hard one, do we want the possibility of the series being decided or players having their farewell games in neutral territory away from both fan bases?