Of nine games the Lions have played at home this year, they have lost only twice – both times to New Zealand opposition – and the Waratahs have actually never won a finals game in Johannesburg.
To make matters worse, when the pair met last, the Lions comprehensively mauled the Tahs in Sydney, the away side dominating possession 60 per cent to 40 per cent, territory 59 per cent to 41 per cent, condemning NSW to their first ever Super Rugby game without scoring a single point. Ouch.
A few key areas that helped the Lions to their historic win were the set piece, the breakdown, game control and defence. These remain crucial for this weekend’s clash.
Set piece
While the Waratahs’ scrum held out admirably last week, particularly in the last ten when they were a man down, the lineout was an absolute shambles.
The stats say the Tahs won 10 of 13 lineouts at a win rate of 76 per cent – well below their standard percentage of 87.8 per cent – however, more than a few of these ‘won’ lineouts were only luckily regathered and not by design.
This is an area the Lions will target, as they lead the competition in lineout win percentage, at 90.9 per cent, and have one of the most efficient set pieces overall, with their scrum win percentage also around 91 per cent.
The key here for the Tahs is control at the lineout and the best way to do that is to put Tolu Latu into the starting team. When he came on in the second half against the Highlanders, he steadied the lineout throw and added his squat frame to the scrum.
While Damien Fitzpatrick has been a strong contributor, he surely has to take a back seat at Ellis Park and make way for Latu, especially considering that the Lions possess the best hooker in world rugby, Malcolm Marx.
Tolu Latu (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Breakdown
In the Waratahs’ 29-0 loss in Round 10, they won 89 per cent of their rucks, while the Lions won 100 per cent – a damning statistic that had a massive influence on the outcome.
Initially, NSW gave themselves a few opportunities, however as the game wore on, they lost control of the ruck.
Both these sides like to play an up-tempo, ball-in-hand game. The issue for the Waratahs is that they are tied dead last for rucks won, at 94 per cent, and the Lions are at a lofty third, with 96 per cent.
This has been one of the Waratahs’ fatal flaws all season. When they lose control of the ruck, the passes from Nick Phipps get messy and the pressure is transferred across the line until the team implodes. Without Michael Hooper to lead them, there needs to be a big lift from the forwards.
As with the lineout, one quick fix is introducing Latu to the starting side. He is low to the ground and has a good core, which makes him perfect as a poacher and breakdown disrupter, but he can’t be alone. The back row of Michael Wells, Will Miller and Ned Hanigan need to make the clear out at the ruck their priority.
The biggest challenge here is fitness and mental resilience. After the long flight and a tough affair in Sydney last Saturday, the Waratahs will be hurting and playing at altitude will only add to this. So much will depend on how quickly players get off the deck and how committed they are to push themselves for 80 minutes.
[latest_videos_strip category=”rugby” name=”Rugby”]
Game control
In the Lions’ quarter-final win over the Jaguares, Elton Jantjies was the clear standout in terms of game control.
Jantjies was criticised for his game management in the June internationals against England, but on Saturday this was world class. His kicking from the hand and the tee were spot on, and led to Jantjies achieving a game-high personal tally of 20 points, including a drop goal from 40 metres out in the last 20 minutes.
Game control has not been the Waratahs’ strong suit. This is where Bernard Foley needs to step up and why the battle of the number 10s on Saturday will be so intriguing.
While Jantjies has kicked for 3157 metres and averaged 28.9 metres per kick, Foley actually has more kick metres and at better average at 40766 and 32.3 metres, respectively.
However, while Foley leads Jantjies statistically, he has a real issue with his out-of-hand kicking, particularly when he is going for a tactical kick after some stagnation in attack. The issue is that high altitude rugby gives a unique opportunity to use tactical kicking to control play. Kicking in Joburg gives a player the ability to chew precious extra metres off every kick, due to the thinner air.
When used effectively, it wins games, so turning the Lions forwards around and running well-executed exit plays has to be at the forefront of Foley’s mind.
Defence
The Lions and the Waratahs have similar tackle effectiveness, with the Waratahs sitting 11 overall at 82.7 per cent and the Lions just behind at 12, with 82.6 per cent. If they maintain these rates on the weekend, both can expect to let a raft of points through.
The Lions lead the competition in defenders beaten (455), sit second for tries scored (81) and fourth for carries (2002) but contrastingly sit eighth for metres gained (7329) and dead last for offloads (115). So the South Africans are a physical side that rely on big ball runners to dent the line but don’t work too much with an offload game.
If the Tahs make effective one-on-one tackles, the Lions’ attack will stagnate and they will be able to fan out their defence to cover the edges of the field. But therein lies the problem – NSW have been abysmal at executing one-on-one tackles all season.
Kurtley Beale leads the competition in tackles missed, at 57, and Foley sits fifth with 42. Their only saving grace is that the Lions have four out of the top-ten players for missed tackles, including Jantjies, who sits third at 47.
This means we should expect plenty of action in the 10 and 12 channels, as both sides look to flood the midfield with runners and options. The side that quells this flood will be best placed to win the defensive battle.
The Waratahs present a different proposition in defence – they are first for metres carried (8789), third for carries (2034), first for clean breaks (264), third for tries (77) and fifth for offloads (165).
So if the away side fail to make metres and are put under pressure at the contact zone, then their offload game will be halted and quick ball to their star backs will dry up. When the opposition have disrupted the tackle and breakdown – like the Lions did in Round 10 – the Waratahs look limp in attack and tend to push passes or make errors.
They say defence is all about attitude and the Waratahs have been struggling over recent weeks. They won’t be able to rely on a yellow card to spark their charge, as the Lions have only given away one all season.
But if they fix their lineout, control the ruck, and are smart in game management and defence, then Ellis Park may just play host to one of the Waratahs’ greatest ever triumphs.
Tony
Guest
Assuming the Tahs and Canes win the team with the highest points ie The Canes have to travel to Sydney and give away home advantage - dumb dumb dumb shld be on merit final shld then be in Wgtn. Sanzar have to adress this ridiculous system
Fionn
Guest
Yep. I guess the argument for him playing 10 is that he gets the ball so much more, but I wonder whether him being given the ball less often, but in space, from fullback might be better though?
Baylion
Roar Rookie
BBBBB is great at those things he do well and that allows him to get away with those he doesn't do all that well :) Lesser mortals wouldn't get away with it
Fionn
Guest
Yeah, I personally don't see DMac as a 10, but I think he is a world class fullback. Beauden Barrett is sort of different again, but I still feel that fullback may be his best position longterm.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
Fionn, that's unfortunately where one come unstuck with publicly available stats. It is impossible to isolate Beale's stats as first receiver. DMac (and BBBBB to some degree for that matter) gets away with a lot because he plays for a Kiwi side and the All Blacks. Lesser teams probably would have tried to put him in a box and wouldn't have tolerated his mistakes and weaknesses regardless of the x-factor he brings to the game but he has enough cover the teams he currently plays for to make up for it most of the time.
Fionn
Guest
9. Smith, 10. Mounga, 11. Ioane, 12. SBW, 13. Goodhue, 14. Smith, 15. Barrett, 21. Perenara, 22. Laumape/ALB, 23. McKenzie How's that for a potential backline!?
Fionn
Guest
It's a fair point, Peter. But I'd still like to see Beale-Toomua tested, or even Foley-Toomua tested. We just can't know what will work best until it is tried.
Fionn
Guest
For a while I've felt that Richie Mounga is the most complete 10 in Super Rugby, even if Barrett is the best back in the world. I do wonder somewhat whether we'll eventually see Barrett at fullback and Mounga at 10 for the All Blacks, but then again Barrett has won world player of the year the last two years too, and they have DMac. Can't really go wrong as an All Black selector! I've thing I've noticed about Foley is that he is often interchanging with Beale and playing as second receiver. I'd be interested in seeing those stats for Beale too if you have them? He and Foley have been sharing the flyhalf duties. Riddler, I agree with you that Mounga is probably the best 'flyhalf'. I would think the All Blacks would love to find a way to have both in the team at the same time?
riddler
Guest
superb baylioon.. like your work a lot and thank you very much for the effort you have put into that. it is a breath of fresh air. someone who doesn't use stats for their agenda or narrative pushing.. i am in 100% complete agreement, richie is the best of the 4. by a fair whack in my eyes. us oz fans are going to be playing against another in the making kiwi legend flyhalf for the next 5 to 7 years in richie m. i know bb is a world rugby player of the year but i am not seeing it so cut and dry that he is the no.1 in nz, let alone the world.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
riddler, I've found that even with public stats one can make some sense but I've started playing with stats clusters or combos rather than single stats categories. And then more to compare the type of players they are. For example, the four flyhalves in the semis: Barrett tends to do a lot more on his own while the others use their players a more. Barrett scores more tries but have the least try assists, he runs more with the ball and kicks more while passing and offloading less than most. Jantjies is almost directly opposed as he runs much less and don't score many tries but puts others into space (linebreak assists) and in for tries (try assists) The above isn't a judgement call, merely to try and understand how the different players play their games instead of just saying: "Barrett scores more tries than the rest therefore he's a better flyhalf". As a personal judgement call, Richie Mo'unga is probably the most rounded/balanced flyhalf of the four Minutes: EJ: 1360 BF: 1338 RM: 747 BB: 1085 Tries: BB: 6 BF: 3 RM: 3 EJ: 1 Try assists: EJ: 10 BF: 9 RM: 8 BB: 6 Passes/Possession - %: BF: 514/714 - 72% EJ: 425/608 - 69.9% RM: 195/346 - 56.4% BB: 247/455 - 54.3% Runs/Possession: RM: 90/346 - 26% BB: 92/455 - 20.2% EJ: 74/608 - 12.2% BF: 69/714 - 9.7% Kicks/Possession: BB: 113/455 - 24.8% RM: 63/346 - 18.2% EJ: 109/608 - 17.9% BF: 126/714 - 17.6% Offloads: EJ: 15 RM: 14 BB: 11 BF: 6 Linebreaks - Runs/LB: EJ: 4 - 74/4 = 18.5 BF: 10 - 69/10 = 14.4 RM: 7 - 90/7 = 12.9 BB: 9 - 92/8 = 10.2 Linebreak Assists - Pass/LBA: RM: 15 - 195/15 = 13 EJ: 28 - 425/28 = 15.2 BB: 14 - 247/14 = 17.6 BF: 29 - 514/29 = 17.7 Tackle Busts - R/TB: RM: 33 - 90/33 = 2.72 BB: 28 = 92/28 = 3.28 BF: 23 - 69/23 = 3 EJ: 19 - 74/19 = 3.9
riddler
Roar Rookie
baylionn was going to say the same last night.. individual teams have their stat junkies and are very complete.. type of kick, type of tackle, type of run metres gained, type of pass etc.. us joe public only get some random things on very general things.. the reality being only the win/loss stat is perfect and non-debatable from the lists we get.. for the past few years a few people on here have used those basic sin context stats to push their narratives and agendas.. i very much agree with paulo and his 'how to lie with stats' topic.. baylion am not having a dig at your stats mate.. they have been interesting and definitely have more colour than we what are used to on here from a certain few.. you have set them out with any bias or agenda.. cheers for that mate.. enjoy the games on the weekend..
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Aren't stats great? One of my last Uni topics, biological data analysis, had a topic, "How to lie with stats". It showed how Stats can be used to "illustrate' what ever you want, provided you show the right stat. As I said earlier, stats only represent behavior, but unless the behavior is restricted in how it contributes to the metric, the actual stat becomes meaningless. Stats only give half the picture, if that. I am a firm believer that there are 2 types of people in the world; those that form a conclusion with incomplete information...
Baylion
Roar Rookie
Well, since this is about stats :) Tries scored by forwards and backs Lions: Forwards: 34 tries by 12 players Backs: 41 tries by 12 players Tahs: Forwards: 19 tries by 8 players Backs: 55 tries by 12 players Some more Jantjies vs Foley Linebreak assists (putting players into gaps): 28 vs 29 Try assists: 10 vs 9 Tackle breaks: 19 vs 23 Linebreaks: 4 vs 10 Offloads: 15 vs 6
Baylion
Roar Rookie
A bit of a pot/kettle situation don't you think? Lions conceded 57 tries, the Tahs 61
Baylion
Roar Rookie
That's the problem with publicly available stats, they don't provide us with enough details. The Tahs have kicked 5th most this season (306) and are 3rd in kick meters (9454m), the Lions 13th in kicks (258) and in kick meters (7308m) but we don't know how the kicks are split into line kicks, kick passes, chips and garyowens. A favourite fake stat to me is the tackle stats - tackles made/tackles missed. A tackle made can still be ineffective if the tackled player gets his pass or offload away or still is able to score a try, while a missed tackle can be effective if it stops a play or causes the tackled player to lose the ball
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Fair enough, and can understand that. But wouldn't these stats start to even themselves out over the course of a season? Unless there was a considerable discrepancy in the number of times a kick misses touch, or significantly more cross fields etc? I would have thought Foley would have a fair number of cross field and tactical kicking in there when you consider the wings he is trying to unleash. I had thought the cross field kick to Folau was a key strike weapon for the Tahs, or is Foley not the one that tends to do those? Genuinely curious as I like to understand the stats I am reading.
PeterK
Roar Guru
agree and why I have maintained Foley should be in the team for his goalkicking until someone else can kick at consistently well.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Folau was out injured that game against the lions, he makes a significant difference
Peter Taylor
Roar Pro
Cheers Mzilikazi, yeah I am looking forward to it too. Such a tough task for the Tahs but a win would rate as one of their all time best.
Peter Taylor
Roar Pro
I'm loving these stats Baylion