The Lions host the Waratahs on Saturday night at Ellis Park, Johannesburg. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog of the match, starting from 11:05pm (AEST).
The last time the Waratahs won in ‘Jozi’ was in 2009 when the Lions were coached by Eugene Eloff – who had a winning rate of 28 per cent. The Waratahs were coached by Chris Hickey who had a win rate of around 66 per cent, which is a little lower than the Lions’ previous coach Johan Ackermann.
This year is different. Darryl Gibson’s Waratahs has won nine of 16 games. Swys de Bruin’s Lions has the same win record. They have very similar stats, including points scored, points allowed, tries scored and tries allowed.
One difference between the two is that the Waratahs have an extra draw against the Sharks in Durban. The other is that the Lions ignores penalties. The Lions opted to kick for only nine penalty goals all season.
The Lions have lost only two home games, both against Kiwi teams. The Waratahs lost three. One loss was against the Blues, the other against the Brumbies. The last was a 29-0 drubbing by the Lions themselves.
The other significant difference is consistency. While the Lions’ 2018 performance under de Bruin is not as good as Ackermann, their form has been very consistent all season.
Conversely, the Waratahs form in key departments (breakdown, set piece, attack, defence) has been erratic in the past month or so, ranging from totally awesome to dreadful within minutes of each other.
The one thing the Waratahs have been consistent has been Bernard Foley’s place kicks – an accuracy of 83 per cent – which fares slightly better than Elton Jantjies’ 81 per cent.
The outcome today will be mostly about what Gibson’s boys can do, rather than the predictable and ‘very difficult to beat’ Lions at home. Gibson brought Tolu Latu on early, ostensibly to counter Malcolm Marx’s breakdown dominance. I reckon it will help a bit. But, Marx will be Marx nevertheless.
Prediction
The bookies’ odds for a Waratahs win are not good: over four to one. The Lions will predictably focus on stopping Israel Folau and Taqele Naiyaravoro who scored one-third of all Waratahs tries. The Waratahs will focus on regaining their mid-season consistency.
I will defer my prediction to MrChook. He states the winner to today will be rugby. Enjoy!
Ex force fan
Guest
Thanks jeznez. 5 seasons ago. So glad this year went so much further now that we are so much better as four.
RobC
Roar Guru
DEAL!!
Machooka
Roar Guru
Well, if you give us BT... we’ll win the effin thing :)
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks MrChook! Pleasure to do the blog. And to track cockroaches vast improvement this year How confident are you next year, to make an improvement?
Machooka
Roar Guru
Well done MrRobC on another entertaining ‘live blog’ of this important match for both sides... and sorry I couldn’t join you, and all other the rusted-on gaggle of true rugby supporters making comment through-out the game. I love youse! ;) And, likewise, thanks also MrRobC for your ‘shoutout’ in your prediction piece... and, although I still haven’t seen the game, (highlights only) I think I got it pretty right. Well, mostly. Partly. The first half for sure... just not the ending thingy bit!?! :) So congrats to the Lions for their deserved victory and defiantly defending their den... and to da Tahs for giving them some real reason to do so. And having been able to watch the other game, I’m thinking now that nasty sheep lovin’ mob, pretty much, are on song AGAIN to take another title. It’s still possible for the Lions... but based on current form improbable.
jeznez
Roar Guru
2014, not that long ago. If you check the books you’ll even see the Aussie team won the final that year.
Taylorman
Guest
Yes, so they can help players up off the ground without being seen to be biased. Wheres my bucket.?
ozinsa
Guest
Better team won. Thanks Tahs for your effort - I’m a happy fan. I hope the Lions upset the odds next week, although it’s unlikely
Bfc
Guest
Kwagga Smith had another cracking game (MOTM performance...) and I note he wore the #6 jersey. Do the Boks play Smith at #7 and Kiya Kolisi at #6? With Marx, Smith and Kolisi the Boks will be competitive at the breakdown...
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Another reason that we need neutral refs, Harry.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
I haven't read all the comments. Thanks Tahs, thanks for the game
You also need to remember Kwagga Smith recieved a red card early in the match. But I agree with you.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Penalty count 15-7 to the Lions thanks to a brief spell where Jackson shelled out a spate in a ten minute period of indiscipline by the Tahs. A telling period of the match.
Faith
Guest
This Lions team is nowhere near the one that lost to Saders in the last final with Jaco Kriel, Johann Van Rensburg and that blond scrum-half who tore the Poms a new one. And many are not on song ... Mapoe, Skosan ...
Well unlkely they will win in Christchurch
taylorman
Roar Guru
True, big clah of the packs as well in a repeat of last years final. Lions theee lost finals in a row?
RobC
Roar Guru
cheers DC. Yeah mate. Lions were more consistent also, with higher integrity of form as a team. Tahs a few kinks to sort out. I reckon they will be hard to beat next year. A few adjustments and they'll be right methinks Lions next week. Yeah their LO needs tightening a bit. Saders know how to beat them: - their last H2H was round 7, April fools - Lions scored first and lead 5-0 into 1H - Saders scored two quick tries 50th and 53rd - Scoreless for another 15m then a Lions penalty - Some close calls, but somehow the Lions survived try attempts Tight score in the end, 14-8. Lions might try something similar. Maybe, dunno
jeznez
Roar Guru
Hard to go past him. His first try was critical and came from nothing. He was putting big shots on and scored his second later on as well.
Moondawwg
Guest
Agree. Foley has taken captaincy well. Wells has been fantastic all season. Plays hard (but not quite a brute/hardman), huge tank and progressed his game very quickly over a few seasons. I reckon he would make a great 6 when paired with Hooper or Pockock (team plan dependant) and a brutish hulksmash 8; but we don't have one in AUS :P.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Fair enough. They played well.