How far can the Eagles go without Andrew Gaff?

A little over a month ago, it felt like the 2018 AFL finals series was primed for West Coast’s taking.

Now, with two of the team’s most influential soldiers gone, it looks like that uphill march may just be too steep.

West Coast sit in second spot, with 14 wins and five losses and, barring an unlikely disaster, they’ve got a top-four finish locked up.

Their three final matches of the home-and-away campaign are Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Melbourne at Optus Stadium and finally Brisbane at the Gabba. Quite the run home.

After that, they will be put to the test like never before – but just how are they going to fair with the sudden loss of premium midfielder Andrew Gaff and ruck star Nic Naitanui?

Gaff has a line through his name after being handed an eight-week suspension after striking Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw on Sunday.

It’s the equal longest suspension handed down since the turn of the century, matching an eight-week spell Essendon’s Dean Solomon was once given for throwing an elbow at Geelong’s Cameron Ling.

Leading into the nightmare that was Sunday, Gaff was in the form of his career, re-working his approach to the game drastically between 2017 and 2018 and entering the new year as a player not only able of dominating from the outside, but also more than capable of winning his own footy.

Gaff sat in the top bracket of Brownlow Medal favourites, expected to finish in the top three along with Melbourne’s Max Gawn and Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell.

His excellent season has all been noted by the AFL Coaches’ Association, with Gaff collecting 65 votes as the fifth favourite to win the MVP Award.

Andrew Gaff (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Naitanui’s value was highlighted in the media aggressively at the time of his season-ending injury, so can West Coast win a premiership without the following resources:

• A ruckman who, when paired with Scott Lycett, was producing 30 hitouts a game, 4.3 tackles and 3.7 clearances, along with that flood of other intangibles that Naitanui brings to the game.
• A midfielder averaging more than 30 disposals to go with just under 400 metres gained each time he heads out onto the park. Gaff was also averaging 6.5 score involvements, 3.9 inside 50s and 3.6 clearances and 2.9 tackles.

In short, it’s hard to see how any other answer short of a blunt ‘no’ can be reached.

The pairing of Lycett with Nathan Vardy is going to be great to watch – but Vardy seriously has his work cut out for him when it comes to covering the work load usually afforded to Naitanui.

West Coast can be grateful that Richmond’s hold on top spot hasn’t been constructed out of a dominance in the ruck. While Toby Nankervis is pivotal to the Tigers’ game plan, it’s not for his pure ability to win the tap. The Eagles remain covered here.

But against other top-four prospects the same assurances can’t be afford.

Melbourne’s Max Gawn is a titan and if he’s able to give his side first usage all day, as well as provide around the ground in a way that neither Lycett nor Vardy are able to match, that’s going to be a huge issue. Likewise with Collingwood and Brodie Grundy. Gawn and Grundy are simply too strong in the air and at ground level for West Coast to consider matching.

And now the Gaff dilemma. The biggest issue West Coast will face in replacing Gaff is confronting his reliability and consistency, as well as his ability to produce raw usage of the ball.

Gaff is second in the AFL for total possessions this season with 583 – trailing only Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell.

After that, West Coast’s best two ball-winners have been Jack Redden and Elliot Yeo, both with 468 touches at an average of 24.9. Ranked 32nd and 33rd in the AFL.

Next best then is Shannon Hurn, with 414 at an average of 21.8 per game. 54th in the AFL.

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In comparison, top-four challenger Melbourne has Clayton Oliver and Nathan Jones both in the top 30. Collingwood has Steele Sidebottom, Tom Phillips and Scott Pendlebury in the top 30. Greater Western Sydney has Lachie Whitfield, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward in the top 30.

The obvious club I’m leaving out here is Richmond, with no players in the top 30 disposal-getters for the season, despite sitting on top of the ladder. Their highest is Dustin Martin, at 38.

And it’s with that connection that we see the answer to West Coast’s new Gaff dilemma – they’re going to have to try and become more like the Tigers: lethal by foot and hand without a reliance on maintaining possession to win the match.

Can they adapt like that, this deep in the season? To a degree that they’re better than Richmond themselves? It’s hard to see considering one side has been drilled to this approach all season and the other simply needs to become more efficient before finals arrives.

And, as always, there’s that Melbourne factor – the Melbourne Cricket Ground factor to be specific. The Eagles have no choice but to play their best brand of footy at the MCG if they want the premiership, it can’t be done any other way.

Thankfully for the Eagles, they have a pretty good record in Melbourne this year. Wins at Etihad Stadium against the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn, a shaky win against Carlton at the MCG and a domination of an injury-rattled Collingwood two months after that. A good pretty good record indeed.

Beyond adaptation and improvements in efficiency, West Coast also has one either reason to remain positive – the combination of Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy.

Kennedy and Darling both starred in big wins against Richmond and Collingwood this season.

Who knows, if both forwards are able to cut loose come September, the Eagles may just make it after all.