Nine hot takes from AFL Round 23

2016 and 2017 gave us fairytale finals finishes – we saw teams who had been starved of success for decades explode from the middle of the pack to win it all.

2018 will be a fairytale finals series also, albeit a fairytale of a different kind: Richmond and the seven dwarves.

There’s no doubt that the Tigers will go into September this year as the out-and-out favourites to win back-to-back flags after claiming the minor premiership in the home-and-away.

They’ve stood head and shoulders above the opposition in terms of quality for much of the year, and when they haven’t, their opponents have been hit hard enough by the injury stick for it not to matter.

The big question therefore is of course, can someone stop the yellow-and-black train? And if so, who is it going to be?

One could argue there are some cracks in the Richmond armour. Three of their last four matches have been wins by eight points or less – opposition sides will believe they’re gettable.

Six consecutive wins going into finals no doubt sounds like a positive, but goes against the popular theory that it’s good for the flag favourites to have a loss to sharpen them up late in the season.

Maybe it’s a silly superstition, but it’s worth noting that you have to all the way back to the Brisbane Lions of 2001 to find a premier who didn’t lose at least one of their last six home-and-away games.

So, without further ado, here’s my power rankings of the finals teams most like to put a thorn in the Tigers’ paw.

1 – Collingwood Magpies
For me, Collingwood are the best chance of any team in the league to beat out Richmond for the 2018 premiership.

The reasoning is simple – the Magpies have both the power and the confidence to upset the Tigers on the big stage.

Injuries have hurt them and in particular left the defence a bit suspect, but that won’t matter as much if they can dominate through the middle.

They did as much last time they played the Tigers, but ultimately lacked the class to finish the job.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

2 – West Coast Eagles
If the dice fall just right, West Coast could host Richmond in a preliminary final at Optus Stadium – Eagles fans would be licking their lips at the idea.

I’d find it hard to tip against West Coast in those circumstances. They smashed the Tigers there earlier this year and while they aren’t the same team now, I suspect they would get over the line again.

They would need a lot to go their way though and if instead they are forced to take on the Tigers at the MCG, I don’t think they’ll have the muscle to get the job done.

3 – Hawthorn Hawks
It’s hard to place the Hawks in these rankings because while I don’t believe they are a realistic chance to win the flag, they are the team most likely to deal Richmond a lethal blow.

That’s simply because they will play the Tigers in week one and while Richmond are a better team in my book, Alastair Clarkson has two weeks to pull his opposition apart which is always a dangerous thing.

If the Hawks trump the Tigers and West Coast win over Collingwood, then Richmond will need to travel to Perth to make the grand final – which might end their hopes of winning it before they even get started.

From the Hawks’ perspective though, I don’t see them making it past a preliminary final.

4 – Melbourne Demons
Because I’ve been listening to some first world war podcasts lately, let me make this comparison – Melbourne are essentially 1914 Russia.

It’s not a question of how good they can be when they arrive, but a question of how long it will take them to do so.

I think they weigh in with more muscle than any other team in the league, but that muscle is burried under a layer of puppy fat, a bit like Clayton Oliver before he got drafted.

Is there a hypothetical chance that suddenly everything clicks for them in finals and they deliver four consectuive knockout punches to win it all?

They’ve certainly looked on song in the last two weeks – so yes. But with neither Jesse Hogan or Jake Lever available for finals, I’d say it’s seriously unlikely.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

5 – GWS Giants
A fortnight ago I thought the Giants might be Richmond’s closest competitior, and they do have enough talent to win the premiership, unfortunately, I suspect injury will have hit them just a bit too hard to make it happen in 2018.

Were luck a bit kinder they would be sitting in the top four right now, possibly even the top two, and be a very strong chance to make it through to the grand final.

As things stand, it’s not impossible that they get there, but they’ll have to do a lot of travelling which will only make their lack of depth more problematic.

Still, if there’s a team in the lower half of the eight who can win it all, it could be them.

6 – Geelong Cats
If you were to look at finals as a boxing match, the Cats are the kind of fighter who could win it with a knockout blow in the first round, but have no chance if it goes the distance.

They’ve got enough star power that they’ll be able to upset any team on their day and because of that, could do some serious damage in finals.

However they simply don’t have the depth or consistency to pull that off four weeks in a row, and they’ll fall well short of the flag because of that.

7 – Sydney Swans
Their form over the last month to squeeze into finals when all hope seemed lost has been inspirational, but they’re just making up the numbers this year.

All things considered, at this point I’m still tipping the Tigers to win it all – but, I’m a little less certain of the pick than I was maybe a month ago.

If I had to divide it up, I’d probably say the Tigers are a 70 per cent chance to go back-to-back, with Collingwood at 15 per cent, West Coast ten, Melbourne four, GWS one, and no one else seriously in the race.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Jack claims a third Coleman
Of course, it would be wrong to talk about the Tigers’ premiership hopes without making mention of the man who has done so much to strengthen them – Jack Riewoldt, who this week clinched his third Coleman Medal.

A bag of five goals put Riewoldt seven in the lead on Saturday afternoon, and his fellow contenders failed to catch up.

Tom Hawkins managed only two goals in Geelong’s 104-point thumping of Gold Coast, while Lance Franklin was a late withdrawal for Sydney.

Ben Brown made a valiant attempt to reel in the deficit in the final match of the season, but fell just a few goals short.

In the end, it’s fitting that arguably the league’s most unselfish key forward has won the award for also being the most prolific one. A tip of the cap to jumping Jack.

Since that’s locked away, how about we give out a few more awards?

Recruit of the year
2018’s ‘recruit of the year’ is a tricky one to call, because it probably depends on who you decide is eligible.

Does ‘recruit of the year’ have to be a player who has previously played with a different AFL club, or does it just have to be someone on your list who wasn’t there last year?

If the latter, then I think the clear winner for the year has to be Geelong’s Tim Kelly, who has gone from being a WAFL star to the elite bracket of AFL midfielders.

(Strangely, he could be a chance to win it two years in a row, if – as has been speculated – he requests a trade home to WA at the end of the year.)

If the former, then my pick for the year would be Devon Smith, whose 8.4 tackles per game is the most of any player this year.

He averaged a career-best 22 disposals per game, and kicked 17 goals across the year.

Nods must also go to Bryce Gibbs and Gary Ablett, who both produced stirling form at their new clubs, Luke Hodge, who has no doubt had an impact on the Brisbane Lions that will be felt for years to come, and Charlie Cameron, who might well have taken the cake were it not for injury ending his season early.

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

The most improved player of 2018
When it comes to picking the most improved player of the year, let me get my bias out of the way quickly by saying that Majak Daw and Jed Anderson would both be in serious contention for the title.

Not only are they now some of the most valuable players in North Melbourne’s lineup, but both have done it from a position of being almost entirely written off by fans. Kudos.

Neither quite takes the No.1 spot for me but I’d say both would be in the top five. Also in the top five I will put Jayden Short from Richmond, and Josh Thomas at Collingwood.

However, the overall most improved player of the year in my mind has to be Angus Brayshaw – after starting the year outside Melbourne’s best 22, he’ll enter the finals as one of their most valuable assets.

Nods also go out to Tom Jonas, Hugh McCluggage, Isaac Heeney, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Lynden Dunn, James Sicily, Tom Stewart, and the many others who I look forward to being berated for overlooking in the comments.

Tipping every club’s best-and-fairest
One of my favourite things to do at the end of the year is to predict every club’s best-and-fairest winners – so here goes.

One caveat – some of these teams obviously still have finals matches to play. For some that could change the outcome, for others it’s already pretty clear.

In some cases I’ve backed in players who’ve missed more than a few games, namely Harris Andrews, Nat Fyfe and Andrew Gaff.

For Gaff in particular who won’t play again this year, it could depend a lot on how deep the Eagles progress into September.

Adelaide Crows – Rory Laird
Brisbane Lions – Harris Andrews
Carlton Blues – Patrick Cripps
Collingwood Magpies – Steele Sidebottom
Essendon Bombers – Devon Smith
Fremantle Dockers – Nat Fyfe
Geelong Cats – Tom Hawkins
Gold Coast Suns – Jarrod Witts
GWS Giants – Lachie Whitfield
Hawthorn Hawks – Tom Mitchell
Melbourne Demons – Clayton Oliver
North Melbourne Kangaroos – Shaun Higgins
Port Adelaide Power – Tom Jonas
Richmond Tigers – Jack Riewoldt
St Kilda Saints – Jimmy Webster
Sydney Swans – Isaac Heeney
West Coast Eagles – Andrew Gaff
Western Bulldogs – Jack Macrae

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Compo picks to see Dogs miss top six
The 2018 season has finished with the ladder showing a pretty clear ‘bottom six’, and coincidentally there happens to be a pretty clear ‘top six’ at this year’s draft.

Sam Walsh and Jack Lukosius are widely seen as 2018’s leading prospects, but the likes of Izak Rankine, Bailey Smith and Max and Ben King aren’t too far behind.

In ordinary circumstances, it would appear to match up perfectly, but odds are that someone is going to miss out.

If Gold Coast accept a compensation pick for Tom J Lynch’s departure, rather than matching the offer and forcing a trade, they’ll get an extra pick after their first, and push the Bulldogs out of the top six selections.

It was a close tussle to see who would be the team on the outer this week as both the Dogs and Dockers threatened to nab upset wins – in the end, the Dogs will miss out by a margin of 1.1 per cent.

From this vantage point it’ll be a disappointment, but I wouldn’t worry too much personally.

There will undoubtedly be players taken outside the top six who prove to be as good or better than the players there – it’s just a little harder to work out who they’ll be.

And out of 2018’s bottom six sides, the Bulldogs are undoubtedly the best prepared for the future.

[latest_videos_strip category=”afl” name=”AFL”]

Dons win the battle of the disappointments
Any team thinking that it can give itself a quick fix this year with a busy couple of weeks at the trade table should look at Essendon and Port Adelaide’s Friday night stoush as a cautionary tale.

These were the two sides most active in October last year, all bringing in three relatively well-known players, but both have gone backwards in 2018.

It was the Dons who won the battle of the disappointments, and probably of the two are the team better place to experience an upswing in 2019.

While Port’s regression was just plain bad, for Essendon at least it was a reasonable effort to tread water – or come close to doing so – given how much experience they lost through retirement at the end of 2017.

The Dons also finished the year in fairly impressive form, as opposed to Port who could find a win only once in their last seven games of the year.

No excuses next year though – this team still boasts the league’s longest drought since last winning a final, and surely fans cannot abide that much longer.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Fantastic fortnight for Geelong, but is it good finals prep?
Geelong will enter the finals having not played a competitive match of football in nearly a month, and not won one in six or seven weeks.

When the Cats dropped winnable late-season games to Richmond and Melbourne, we saw their easy finish at home against Fremantle and Gold Coast as being a valuable ace in the hole.

Everyone knew that Geelong’s opponents in the final fortnight would be below the Cats’ weight class, and the final results reflected as much.

The Cats thumped both teams by triple-digit margins, victorious across the two fixtures by a grand total of no less than 237 points.

But will it prove to be an effective lead-in for an everything-on-the-line elimination final against Melbourne at the MCG.

Some have asked during the season whether the Cats advantage at Kardinia, while obviously helpful in the home-and-away rounds, hinders their effectiveness in finals.

I’m a bit of a sceptic, more a believer in the ‘if you’re good enough, you’ll win anywhere’ theory, but it is fair to say the last fornight won’t bear much relevance when the Cats ask themselves whether or not they know how to beat the best.

It was announced during the week that Chris Scott has extended his contract with the Cats which will see him coach them until at least the end of 2022, a decision which was not without its critics.

If he wants to change the minds of those who don’t believe he’s up to it, then making sure his side is at peak mental readiness for the first week of finals would be a good way to start.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

The offseason begins…
Well, for ten teams in least. Here’s a friendly reminder that, starting tomorrow morning, I’ll be breaking down every club’s list and looking at at what they might do in trade period and at the draft.

Don’t miss it!