The Wallabies play the Springboks in Brisbane on Saturday as both sides look to get their Rugby Championships back on track.
Both sides suffered losses in their second games of the tournament, both know that this is a key game and both have rung the changes in search of the win.
For the Wallabies they will have to shake off a tough first couple of rounds. It’s arguably the hardest job in international rugby to have to play the All Blacks in the opening two games of a six-match competition, but more than the losses, the poor performances from the men in gold have fans concerned.
Defensive weaknesses, fragile set piece, ineffectiveness at the breakdown and players looking unfit are all issues that the Aussies faced and they have to put some of these to bed quickly.
Their set piece was better in the second Bledisloe match but of course it almost couldn’t be worse than game one.
Both packs in this game will be wanting to dominate the other upfront and show the world that they are to be feared.
The Wallaby front five will need to work very hard as a unit to get the upper hand over the powerful Boks and it should be a cracking battle.
If the Aussies can also then bring on Taniela Tupou in the second half then they might be able to cause some real problems for the South Africans.
Tupou is being given plenty of time to confirm that he’s fully recovered from his hamstring injury and the Wallabies could really do with his impact.
The back row battle will be an interesting one to watch. David Pocock has continued to impress even in the big losses to the All Blacks and the late news that he’s out through a neck injury is a big issue for the Wallabies.
This makes it even more important that Michael Hooper finds his way back into some stellar performances for his side.
In the first two rounds he’s ended up playing in some very wide positions and that’s not where the Wallabies need him.
Pocock’s replacement – Pete Samu – will make his first test start and Michael Cheika will be expecting a lot from him.
The Wallabies back line sees some big changes from Bledisloe 2. Bernard Foley has been dropped to the bench and will be replaced by Kurtley Beale in the No.10 shirt while Matt Toomua will start in the No.12 position.
Michael Cheika has said that Foley is not doing anything wrong but he must also know that his fly half has not been delivering for quite a while and a change was needed.
Obviously Beale is an experienced player, but he hasn’t played at No.10 at the international level for a while so it’ll be interesting to see how he copes.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Will Genia has been off the pace so far and his battle with Faf de Klerk will be exciting. Faf brought an intensity and pace to his game that tore England to pieces back in June and the Aussies will have to watch that he doesn’t take control of the game on Saturday.
Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale have both also been quiet this championship. Despite the odd glimpse of attacking flair, neither has shone yet.
The Pumas demonstrated how the Boks can be vulnerable out wide and Foley and Beale will want to put attacking pressure on the Boks as early as possible.
There is some good news for Wallabies fans with Israel Folau being passed fit and starting at full back.
His pace and ability to run great lines are perfectly suited at attacking the weaker outside backs in the Boks line up.
Add to that his aerial ability and the Wallabies will be desperate for him to have a big game.
The Boks meanwhile have some hard work to do after losing to the Pumas in Mendoza. They were nowhere near as clinical as they were in game one and the Wallabies need to be careful of the bounce back.
Away wins are the point of difference in the Rugby Championship and if the Boks can steal one in Brisbane that would be significant.
Given this, it’s strange to see that Springboks coach Rassie Erasums has dropped a number of big names to the bench.
Handre Pollard, Malcolm Marx and Tendai Mtawarira all warm the bench. The Marx switch is especially odd – there’s no doubt that he is one of, if not the, best hooker in the world and the Boks need him to have a huge game on Saturday.
When this guy gets going he’s almost impossible to stop and his play in both the tight and loose is a joy to behold. So it’s very odd to see him on the bench.
This Boks side is still growing and recovering from some recent dark times but there’s only a year to go until the World Cup and the rate of recovery needs to be quick.
On the other hand the Wallabies seem to be in a bit of a plateau period. Despite a fair amount of growing support in the way that the Super Rugby teams support the Wallabies and the coaching set up at the international level, performances have not improved since the 2015 World Cup.
Not improving in three years is hard to defend and if the Wallabies really struggle in this Rugby Championship then who knows what will happen ahead of the Spring Internationals.
This is a crucial game for the Wallabies. They must win first and foremost. The performance is important too for sure, but the win is everything.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Prediction
This is going to be a very close game and the team who can bring the right balance of control and attack will be the ones who walk away with the points.
With the Wallabies at home they have an important advantage and with some key Boks starters not actually starting, the Aussies should get home.
Australia to win by 7 points.
A sports tragic
Roar Rookie
Hence the Simmons sos
Bodger
Roar Rookie
Coleman out.
A sports tragic
Roar Rookie
I am more interested in the Wallabies intent, aggression and the basics being done right. I want to see passion in the jersey and what it represents. If they don't. I'm done with the team.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Pocock and Folau out. Foley on bench. Big change in dynamics right there. Gotta go with the boks on this one. ABs match is loseable with so many changes and Mo’unga having to get up to speed with stuff BB knows with his eyes closed.
freddieeffer
Roar Rookie
* Rassie Erasmus.... blurred eyes...
freddieeffer
Roar Rookie
It's 50:50 for mine. Wet and greasy conditions will suit the bok forwards game and not the Wallabies preferred 'flowing game' (whatever that is supposed to be), especially as they are consistently guilty of too many handling errors on a 'good day' with a dry deck. The problem is that both sides have for a few years now turned in some atrocious performances, and I believe both sides still have that disease within their squads and have not yet purged it out of their system(s). One side might be atrocious tonight? Maybe both might be atrocious tonight? It's difficult trying to win a game when you're busy perfecting how to beat yourselves, while handing field position, momentum and points opportunities to the other side. (ie a lack of rugby intelligence along with deficiencies in skills etc, gifting the other team easy points) So for mine, it comes down to who controls the pill the best and makes the least unforced errors while their forward pack have temporary ascendancy during the ebb and flows of the 80 minutes. This games a lottery. I also believe Rasmussen is saving his 'A-side' for their next game with the AB's; with the goal being to 'try' to make a psychological statement on NZ soil. A big ask and a bigger gamble, especially if it backfires on the Saffas. If this is the case, they might be a bit vulnerable tonight, but only if the Wallabies turn up. This, however, seems to becoming a rarer event these days. I'm sure they've got some tactical surprises to put the Wallabies off their game so they don't get their mojo up; as they've shown little capacity to come up with Plan B when Plan A isn't working. So it's 50:50 and anything could happen, including a big score by one of the sides if they work themselves into a hot patch during the game. If the Saffas run hot for a while and put on a comfortable winning margin, the knives will be out in earnest for the Wallabies and they will be swinging in all directions. So tonight's result potentially has huge ramifications that just might reverberate for quite some time.
win 4
Guest
His place is where he is now, one of the best if not the best bench back going, his unpredictability and speed when he comes on just blows teams away as seen when he came on against WB"s, I just hope he understands that he is an integral part of the AB"S an dhis best work is off the bench, wether he will take that as his lot and stay? i hope so, it would be a huge blow to the AB"S if he left,but who could blame him???
Fox
Roar Guru
"Michael Cheika has said that Foley is not doing anything wrong but he must also know that his fly half has not been delivering for quite a while and a change was needed." You understand Oliver that this is an oxymoron from Cheika right? Aslo Folau is ruled out - his ankle has flared up in training which means a back line reshuffle No outstanding goal kicker in the Wallabies - Boks have the edge here by some distance - and Beale will put under all sorts of pressure. Boks must now go in as favourites IMO- they did after all beat the English in three test series at home
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Picked it mate. Yeah I think Mac’s going to find himself dropping down the list. Still a great player but I think more of a 15 who can play 10 than a 10 who can play 15. I think he could get there but he needs more development
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Hi Oliver, some good argument here and nicely written. :) Sadly news is through that both D.Pocock and I.Folau are out of the game. Goodnight nurse, kindly switch off the lights as the WB corpse cools! (Coincidence that Izzy and John Folau are both out of their matches this weekend with ankle problems. A weakness in the Folau "ankle gene"? ) Actually its not that drastic. The weak tackling in the #10-12 axis is gone, and DHP showed last week that the fb position is strengthened in areas with him there. The WB have a big chance if (a) KB doesn't crab and push his outside backs over the sidelines (b) the backline stands much flatter rather than attack from the next suburb which are easy pickings and (c) the defence line stays in a line and shooters only if their position is covered. That #10,12,13 axis will have their work cut out with the two Bok centres without leaving massive holes from shooters. But I guess the main thing is how the smallish backrow can hold off the ginormous Bok forwards for the whole match. When one of them goes off, we have "fearsome" Ned coming on while they have Francois Louw and M. Marx, chalk and cheese. Not confident but GOooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Wally-Bees !
Machooka
Roar Guru
Oops... thanks for the preview Oliver! And I concur... the Wallaby by the narrowest of margins. But then again...
Machooka
Roar Guru
A kiss for ya sister is always on the cards ;)
Machooka
Roar Guru
Looking at the bench of SA... I wonder whether Rassie is disrespecting the Wallaby? I'm led to believe that Izzy is now gone... DHP to 15 and Mad Max to the wing :)
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
I am more interested in how the side plays than the result, tonight. The result may not tell us much as SA are in transition, they don't usually play well away from home and I am not sure that they have picked their best front row and then there is the enigma of Jantjies. My first thought on the Oz selections was that after all this time Cheika still doesn't really have a clue about who his best players are in certain positions. I will be looking at fitness, form of key players and the breakdown. A sense of a gameplan and a plan B would be nice. Samu is probably more capable of playing the 8 role than Pocock but he is really a 7 who can play 6 at Super level, so we are still picking a pair of 7's. I think Tui is a good 6 for the Bok games but Samu might have been a better 6 for the AB's, provided we had a real 8 and a real 7. Hooper can do the yards as a proper 7 - he did that with Jake White - but after he left the Brumbies he played this weird hybrid centre-loosie role. Struggling for optimism.
Rugby101
Roar Guru
Even with Folau also now out, the Wallabies really should win this one. Both teams will be desperate for a win, but we have the great motivator! While our losses to the ABs were convincing, they weren't unexpected. The Boks loss to the Pumas was. I expect it to be tight, but a Wallabies win.
win 4
Guest
Sorry should have been Mac AT ten.
win 4
Guest
Right about Kurtley he's not a ten, he's a watered down version of Mac t ten, and he's not a ten either!.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Another draw, could it be possible?
Bunratty c
Roar Rookie
Wallabies have not advanced/improved over the past several years. Too often players go missing in these types of tight games. The paucity of tries over the past several Tests is worrisome. South Africa appear to be better balanced and more hungry for the win. Boks by 15.
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
I’m really looking forward to this game. I think if the Boks play a traditional game, which is likely with wet weather forecast, then Australia will struggle. I’m not sure the loosies in the Wallabies have demonstrated an ability to compete in a tight game. While if they get their timing right they can pilfer, I’m not sure they have the ability to clear the Boks off the ball and attack a breakdown, whereas the Boks do. Australia needs to spread the ball and attack the outsides but do it go8ng forward not side to side with no penetration. I’m not sold on Beale as a 10 as I think he works better in space and from broken play. I think he’ll get cramped at 10. The Wallabies can definitely win but they need a good 80 mins not a good 40 mins. I’m picking Wallabies by less than 5