Of all the teams left in the finals, the last one West Coast would like to host is Melbourne, yet that is what they are faced with this weekend.
The Demons have beaten the Eagles the last two times these sides have met in Perth, with the previous occasion a one-goal win to West Coast.
Travelling across the Nullarbor holds no fears for Melbourne under Simon Goodwin.
When these two sides met at Optus Stadium in Round 22, a convincing win to the Dees was the result.
It was significant at the time, because it was the first top-eight side they had beaten all year, which was a monkey off the back that had grown to a gorilla after narrow losses to Geelong in Round 18 and Sydney in Round 21 – both games they should have won comfortably after dominating most facets. Freezing in front of goals was a culprit in both games.
It was the win that sparked the Melbourne surge, leading them all the way to a preliminary final, with the promise of more to come. In fact, they haven’t lost since, and have knocked off Greater Western Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn in the meantime. It will be happy memories all around when their flight lands in Perth.
The manner of the Demons’ victory in that Round 22 match is even more important that the belief and confidence it inspired. This was a match played on their terms, and they won the way they wanted to.
Melbourne won the contested possession count by 22 that day, and the clearances by 14. This is not new for the Demons because winning the ball at the coalface is what they do.
Ruckmen are, as a rule, overrated, particularly for what they do with hit outs. Even hit-outs to advantage is a misleading stat. There are so many factors at play in winning a clean exit from stoppages, that a palmed hit out onto a teammates chest is arguably the least of them.
Max Gawn of the Demons in action. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
But Melbourne are the one team that West Coast will miss Nic Naitanui against. If we’re being truthful, they’re probably the only team. Yet this is the one they’re faced with in a preliminary final.
What the Demons were able to do as a result of winning contested possession and clearances, was convert this into scoring opportunities, which they took.
The Dees marked the ball 19 times inside 50 against West Coast, which is the equal most of any side against them this year. They also had 28 scoring shots, again the equal most against the Eagles in 2018.
They also scored 108 points in that game, one of only two teams to top the 100 mark against West Coast this season. Sydney in Round 1 was the other, when Lance Franklin kicked eight goals.
This tells us that Melbourne’s weight of numbers around the contest, and their multi-faceted forward-line which always has space and many options on the lead, causes West Coast problems. The Eagles defence, like most teams, likes to keep themselves condensed toward the centre, so their elite intercept players can hand off and cover for each other.
Jake Melksham took five marks inside 50 in Round 22, Mitch Hannan took four, Tom McDonald three and Sam Weideman two. Apart from Hannan, all of the other three have been running hot in the finals. Adam Simpson and team will want to have done their homework on how to prevent them running amok again.
Much was made of the absence of Josh Kennedy and (effectively) Jack Darling against Melbourne when they last met, but none of the aforementioned problems will be healed by the return of these two.
If the Demons win the ball in the contest, as they have done in the finals (average differentials of positive 16.5 contested possessions and positive nine clearances), then they have the ball movement and personnel to break apart and expose the Eagles’ defence.
Melbourne are hard, fit and hungry. They have belief, confidence and a brand of football built for finals. They have the game to breakdown their opposition, and no fear of the venue.
And they’ll make their first grand final since 2000.
Nigel Dias
Guest
Haha good luck next time bunch of pretenders
Nigel Dias
Guest
You are too funny ???? we smashed them by 66 points
swanny
Guest
OOPS!
Marino
Guest
What is the "expert" saying now?
Eaglesboy
Guest
maybe time to eat your words
IAP
Guest
You know what they say about statistics...it's true. Footy is mostly effort and fitness; having blokes who can kick is a bonus. There's many games that are more skilful than footy.
IAP
Guest
Bias? Coming from the Perth bubble? Hahaha
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Hope so. We will take all the help we can get.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Might still get a WCE v PIES Nigel?
Julie Linden
Guest
So pleased to hear those positive comments from a journalist so close to the game. I amongst the other 46,000 Demons supporters really are getting behind our beloved team, you can only imagine the joy we are experiencing in this journey to our first preliminary final since 2000 when Melbourne lost the grand final to Essendon. Whilst West Coast is a tough assignment, Goodie says it will hold no fears for the Demons after our big win in Round 13... I was there as proud as punch amongst the roaring West Coast supporters I like your confidence, obviously you recognise Melbourne's brand of footy will counteract and influence the hostile West Coast environment. Just like 2018 other team's supporters will visit Mt Buller in finals time:)))
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Changed the name again? Couldn't take the heat?
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
I'm not a vampire's physician. Collingwood fans aren't pale because they don't like the sun.It's because they're exhumed every twenty years or so when their team gets a dose of intravenous aflsoftfixture and the assurance that if there's a soft free kick in a final leading to a dubious goal it will be paid to the B&Ws. Think about it.Less than two goals margin and two dubious goals in favour of Collingwood. If you'd lost because of your poor goalkicking who'd be to blame? I made two reasonable assumptions about the WCE / Melbourne game. If you can't see their reasonableness ,you're living in the same place as Demons fans . If Collingwood or Melbourne get through to the Grand Final, heaven help their opponents, because the umpires certainly won't.
Charles
Roar Rookie
Accurate and eviscerating.
Anonymous
Roar Pro
'Statistically' speaking they are a 1.2 goal better side with JK in the team. You shouldn't claim something as 'statistically' if its not backed up by stats.
FelixGreen
Guest
Well, you're not wrong about the fluff pieces, The West et al have it down to a fine art, but I hate this argument, and here's why: I ask, why can't the wce get better national coverage? You say, because it's not unreasonable that WA represents WA and Vic represents Vic. But then, it's like, you [the AFL est.] just said Vic was the home of football, it's why the Grand Final is scheduled to be played there for the next million years (and don't try to tell me that's a bums on seats issue), and so shouldn't everyone in a national competition get to see their team represented out of the home of football? I understand that newspapers need to target localised audiences, you'll never hear me sooking about not getting a write up in The Age. I'm talking about better standards from Fox shows, from AFL.com; the organisations based out of melbourne whose job it is to maintain a national discourse. I don't want to read another article about how Shannon Hurn would rather go fishing than be in a nightclub , I want Cam Rose and the industry he's emulating here to try harder to at least pretend they're invested in the prospect of West Coast making the grandy. The means by which they have to do that is narrative.
Justin
Guest
Round 22 -Inside 50 marks 19-8 in Melbourne's favour, no Kennedy and Darling for basically the game. It simply comes down to the form of Darling and Kennedy, (i.e. 19 v 11 in WC favour when they thrashed Richmond)
Farnzy
Guest
The only person on here to actually speak some sense.
Nigel Dias
Guest
Nice one love the arrogance of the dees fans
User
Roar Rookie
Nup, Yeo is over 190cm so just run forward and expose harmes lack of defence know how,
User
Roar Rookie
It's ok Pete I'd prefer basic instinct to you constantly acting like Kim Basinger in 9 & a 1/2 weeks make. Mickey Rourke has hot times with Pete the scribe.