It’s official: we’re living in the post-truth AFL, and nothing makes sense anymore.
To help us find our centre, let’s begin with a brief review of what went wrong for the Tigers and Demons.
In short, plenty. But above all else, both Richmond and Melbourne forgot who they were, and allowed their opponents to play the game they wanted far too easily.
Early doors, both clubs were languid and lacking in energy. That happens – see Cats, Geelong (2016, 2017, 2018) – though that is less excusable for Melbourne, who has been on a roll, than Richmond, who had a week off.
By conceding a streak of goals to begin their games, the Tigers and Dees made it hard for themselves no matter what sort of tactical edge they could muster.
And this is where the post-truthiness of today’s league kicks in. Collingwood, off a six-day break, looked far fresher than Richmond, who’d had the week off.
Yet Melbourne, with an eight-day break and having played two games in the two weeks prior, might as well have not shown up against a razor-sharp West Coast Eagles.
The pre-finals bye matters, but it doesn’t matter at all. Richmond and West Coast both played the same number of games as each other between Round 23 and the weekend just past. It will not stop some folk raising it as a factor.
Collingwood’s midfield and forward line was completely dominant – exhibiting the sort of power and flex that we’d come to expect from their opponent.
The Tigers had no answers to half of Collingwood’s team, but principally Brodie Grundy, Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams and Jordan De Goey.
Its back six was a shell of its usual stoic self, the likes of Alex Rance, David Astbury and Nick Vlastuin looking like they’d never played a game of football in their life.
Dustin Martin was ineffectual, and he hasn’t been ineffectual since 2014.
And then there’s Maxon Freaking Cox. He took eight contested marks – though we might have to look into the definition of “contested” given his reach was six inches greater than anyone else on the ground – and kicked three goals that extended a 23-point crisis to a 42-point credit roll. Nothing makes sense anymore.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The small ball Richmond popularised was made to look like last year’s fashion, relying on a lone hand in Jack Riewoldt to keep even the faintest of hopes alive throughout the night.
Blanketed by Tyson Goldsack and generally double teamed on account of Richmond’s slow entries, Riewoldt still managed five goals one behind on the night.
The club’s only other multiple goal kicker, Jack Higgins, was the other lone good news story out of the night: that man is not afraid, and is already a very good footballer.
Collingwood, the king of the handball, kicked the ball 235 times on the evening and took 107 marks. Their kick to handball ratio was 1.35. The Pies season-long marks were 217, 92.8 and 1.17. It’s hard to rationalise this as anything but a deliberate strategic move by Nathan Buckley and his staff.
But if the Pies were the kick kings on Friday night, then the West Coast Eagles were the kick gods. Already a kick-oriented team, the Eagles dialled up their third highest kick to handball ratio of the season (2.03) and took 96 uncontested marks (season average of 87, already the second highest in the competition) in what you would’ve thought was a tactic to keep the ball out of the hands of Melbourne’s powerful midfield.
Except, well, Melbourne’s midfield failed to show up, and all the kicking and marking was a product of West Coast simply needing to do something with all the ball they were winning.
The West Coast Eagles, who finished last amongst the top eight in adjusted contested possessions per game in the home and away season, beat Melbourne, who finished first amongst the top eight in adjusted contested possessions per game in the home and away season, in adjusted contested possession by five.
That’s not a lot, but given that was ostensibly Melbourne’s game and West Coast’s weakness, it is frankly stunning. Nothing makes sense anymore.
Both Richmond and Melbourne will be back. The Tigers may have Tom Lynch’s signature before the week is out – even if it’s in 2B pencil on a fake contract – and it’s hard to fathom their game day 22 playing a worse game as a collective.
Melbourne was riding high and perhaps due a game of middling energy, though middling is about ten times the energy level Melbourne offered on Saturday. They’re young, and at a macro level will get younger again this off season. It’s hard to see them fading out of view now they’ve arrived.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
In March, you could’ve written your own ticket on a West Coast-Collingwood grand final.
The Eagles were widely picked to slide down the ladder, to follow the path of topped up grand final losers who suddenly had to shed a bunch of players.
A 10-1 start followed, powered by a forward-thinking game plan and just the right amount of young blood coursing through its veins.
Seven of those games were at their new home ground, so when a 0-3 patch came after the bye the doubters put their heads above the punditry trenches. Adam Simpson and his charges have blown them all off.
As for Collingwood, well, the signs were there for us all to see for some years, but as a collective we cannot be blamed for losing faith.
Faced with plenty of adversity, coach Nathan Buckley and a new panel of assistant coaches – fresh thinking in the form of new assistants, not head coach stability, is the trend you’re looking for – have happened upon a winning formula that blends its potent and highly skilled midfield with a flexible and tricksy forward group.
In coming from 13th and making a grand final, the Pies could be one of the least likely premiers we’ve seen in… well, just over a year (or two).
Indeed, neither of these teams represent what is supposed to happen in the AFL.
We’ve already had our first preliminary final round without one of the big three (Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney) in an age.
We’re about to have our fourth different premier in four seasons.
And as will be the case for time immemorial, the team finishing higher on the ladder will this week travel to their opponent’s home ground for the last game of the year.
Nothing in the AFL makes sense anymore.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The Pies aren't shifting in the betting very much,if at all,still at $1.68, WCE $2.25. I'd say the pandits are split 52-48 the Pies way, so the odds are there to cover betting agencies @($3$. There is so much more money on the Pies and more that would be splashed if they moved the odds nearer to neutral that their payout would crank up significantly. For once the odds don't reflect the game that's ahead but the hopes of Sportsbet and the others for a result that suits them I still think the Eagles by 25 or so
WCE
Roar Rookie
Nice article Ryan. I think both Melbourne and especially tigers "expected" to win just by turning up in there last games. Since there GF, it seems Richmond turned into a Hawthorn like team being a cocky bunch pr***s who thought they were invincible. West Coast beat them by 47 points but that didn't stop there attitude. I think Melbourne believed all the hype written about them in the papers when they were coming to Perth last week. basically they were going to beat us and be in the GF with little resistance. as we have seen this year top sides are beatable and bottom sides can be competitive you just have to have the right attitude
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think it's a coin toss that will be decided on momentum. If one side gets 2-3 up early, watch out, it could blow out. If it stays tight it could be a grand final for the ages, let's hope not decided by a bad umpiring call.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Lions should beat both of them to it.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
It's also set up for a classic suprise goal kicker to bob up with 4 or 5. All the focus on Cox and De Goey and Stephenson gets 4 or Hoskin 5, Thomas, Varcoe...even Sidey himself can kick 3-4 in a game. We habe multiple avenues to goal with enough inside 50 chaos balls.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Yes I did get to see some of the game. I did start looking to see what the WCEs were doing but Melbourne looked like the Keystone Cops. They were so far off in everything, it was hard to separate a strategy from good luck, everything worked for WCEs. Even fairly standard defensive positioning looked brilliant because the Dees couldn't even hit a handpass.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
Excellent article on a fairly obvious point - neither team was assumed to even make finals, let alone the GF, and once you factor in the injuries that both team faced this year, it seems almost unimaginable that they made it this far in 2018. And two 13ths in a row is interesting but not definitive, Bulldog fans. (Having said that, Footscray looks like they indeed have the tools to do precisely what's being implicitly predicted for them.) It seems more reasonable to look at Adelaide's disastrous season and assume they'll bounce back next year, and to look at Brisbane's internal progress and assume they'll make the big leap next year. (Unabashed plug: I'll put all that together in team analyses for The ROAR once the season's over.) Instead, let's just enjoy these two storied franchises getting this unexpected shot at another cup upon the shelf. Let's enjoy watching Steele Sidebottom get another shot at the ultimate prize towards the end of his storied career, and "Mason Freaking Cox" getting a shot at the "Super Bowl" early in his. Let's enjoy watching the Eagles prove that you don't need Gaff or Naitanui when you've got Darling and Kennedy on the field, and that playing on a field that more closely resembles the MCG at home will make their visit to Melbourne feel more familiar to them than it was three years ago. Most of all, here's hoping for a one-goal game, where the result isn't obvious at halftime!
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
If you can see any of the Eagles/Dees game or bring yourself to watch the Semi again,you'll notice after about three runs that the Eagles,especially Venables,Masten and Cripps are picking up a lot more ground-ball than standard. Others as well,I don't know but Simpson must have had a long-range weather forecast to inform his coaching. Rioli and Ryan and the trio I mentioned won't lose any speed, so keeping Daring and Kennedy to a couple each might not be enough
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Also loved it.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Ben Waterworth of Foxfooty claims "Chaos as 5000 Collingwood fans turn out" to their training session. What would he have made of 12000 turning out at Subi? True,it was 13 degrees and chilly in Melbourne and 20 and sunny in Perth. There's a lot of love for the Pies in Victoria,even amongst the Collingwood -haters. The bookies and the tipsters have the Pies by a couple of goals,except Walls who thinks that Collingwood will beat the Eagles badly. He just came out and said that he predicted the wooden spoon for West Coast as motivation because they'd hear nothing but affirmation in the West..(eyeroll) Most other sites ,(I'm like you Pete,can't get enough media soaking) have it as a coin-toss,which to my way of thinking means that an outstanding performance by one or two players will be enough for victory. Will it be Sidebottom,DeGoey or Cox or Yeo,Cripps or Darling? Can't wait
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
I'd import a laughy face if I could be bothered.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
There is a lot to like about the way Peggy O'Neal, and her team have established a great culture at Richmond. More power to them. There are always some supporters at every club that I would rather avoid, but for the most part clubs are made up of good people. The ones that are problems often connect their own self image to something that is actually removed from their control such as club success. Seeing your self worth go up and down from week to week and season to season can not be good for anyone's psyche.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Of course, when he wrote this he was thinking Carlton! The only question I see is who wins a premiership first the Blues or the Suns?
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I am with Telstra, but for some reason, I have never gotten their coverage to work for me. Perhaps I show try again and test it before the day.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
What ever he does is likely to be a small adjustment on the current theme rather than anything big. I know that it has already been said but Plan A is going to be around cutting off supply to the Eagles forwards by winning the battle across the centre and in the mids. Plan B could be to crowd the corridor and force entries wide and down the line to limit the leading options for JK. This allows easier marks on the outside but they are in areas with lower shot percentages. I don't think they will change much with Cox, because even if he doesn't take the marks, he is so good at directing the ball to runners. But looking at his leading patterns from last week, they will be hard to stop without bringing in all the other backs. If the other forwards stay wide, it will make being the third man to block leads very risky and likely to create openings for fast smalls.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I agree Mr Toad. I kind of fell in love a bit with the Richmond footy club last September. TrueTigerFan, Tibor Nagy, Realist and The Ghost soon cured me of that a few rounds into 2018.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Bob also said ""I’m not sorry for nothin’ I’ve done, I’m glad I fought—I only wish we’d won."....Pies or Eagles players will be saying that Saturday night.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Are you with Telstra Mr Toad? You can get the AFL live app free with your Telstra bundle. Works a treat for me....only limitation is screen size but you can watch all games live and replay any game you wish. I've heard people in here complaining about it but mine works seamlessly.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
What has Bucks got up his sleeve Mr Toad this week? If he pulls out some master strokes, could he become the heir apparent to Clarko?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Can't stand him. Worst journalist in footy history. #bringbackmikesheahan