Revisiting my fearless predictions for the 2018 NRL season

This annual tradition – where I revisit my pre-season rugby league predictions – is both my most dreaded piece to write each year, yet also the one I most look forward to.

Dreaded because it’s always embarrassing to review just how pitiful my prognostications were. Conversely, highly anticipated because, quite simply, it’s just a lot of fun.

However, this year has a slightly different feel to it; it comes attached with a sensation I’m unaccustomed to. The dread has been replaced by…extreme smugness? Hhmm, I wonder why that could be?

Prediction 1: The Roosters will win the premiership
The Chooks won the minor premiership and then completed their dream season by executing one of the most impressive grand final victories I’ve witnessed.

They blew Melbourne off the park in the first forty minutes and forced the Storm to look very un-Storm like, with error after error preventing Cam Smith’s men from ever really being in the game.

There is a pun to be executed here about the Roosters weathering the Storm, but I’m above that type of humour.

Some doubted this prediction, based on question marks over the Roosters’ forward pack, but I thought nabbing Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco was about as good an off-season as any NRL club has ever had. Combined with Latrell Mitchell making a leap into stardom and Boyd Cordner already residing in that ‘precinct’, it ensured the Chooks had four elite level players to go with a host of very good ones, plus Trent Robinson’s excellent coaching.

The Roosters were worthy NRL premiers, and also get my 2018 predictions off to as good a start as theirs on Sunday night.

Verdict: Correct.

Boyd Cordner of the Roosters lifts the Provan-Summons (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Prediction 2: The Dragons will make the top four
A few eyebrows were raised when I made this tip, but I was actually supremely confident about it based on three factors.

Firstly, I really thought James Graham would have a massive impact on his new club. Secondly, I believed Ben Hunt’s signing would take some pressure off Gareth Widdop and they’d form a dynamic halves combination. And lastly, I suspected the ‘loss’ of Josh Dugan would be addition by subtraction.

Tick, tick and tick.

The Dragons were in the top four all year until a late-season drop in form saw them finish just two points off the top of the ladder. Such was the evenness of the competition, four teams finished with 34 points, and four teams finished with 32 points.

In the finals, the Dragons were frustratingly close to making a preliminary final, eventually losing by a mere Adam Reynolds drop goal (or three!) to Souths.

So either way you look at it – ladder or finals – the Dragons were a hair away from finishing in the top four, so I wonder if the judges will be lenient with me here?

Verdict: Yes, they will – half a point.

(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

Prediction 3: Manly and Parramatta won’t make the eight
I probably copped the most flak for this prediction, and on the surface, you can understand why. Both teams had made the finals the year before, and the Eels had actually finished in the top four.

However, I thought they had both over-achieved significantly in 2017, plus I simply felt that some good teams were going to miss the eight in 2018.

That rationale was half-right: the Eels and Sea Eagles did over-achieve in 2017. However, let’s be honest: no good teams missed the eight in 2018. In fact, for large parts of the season, the eight teams that failed to make the finals this year were absolutely dreadful.

Most pertinent to this prediction, Parramatta ‘won’ the wooden spoon, and Manly were a measly two points above them in 15th spot. Which means I basically couldn’t have got this ‘two-for-one’ prediction any more right.

Verdict: Correct x2.

Prediction 4: NSW will win the State of Origin series
As I said in the original prediction, NSW had closed the gap between themselves and Queensland in recent years, and really should have won last year, after defeating the Maroons in Game 1 in Brisbane.

The retirements of Cooper Cronk, Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith certainly helped the Blues cause, as did Billy Slater being ruled out of the opening game of the series through injury.

However, Queensland’s dynasty was always going to end at some point, and the fresh approach by coach Brad Fittler and his ‘Baby Blues’ helped NSW taste Origin victory after many a disappointing year.

Verdict: Correct.

Prediction 5: Mitchell Pearce will play 7 for NSW
I have it on good authority that Pearce was going to get picked for NSW before being ruled out of the series with a pectoral injury. However, another little birdy tells me that Nathan Cleary was always Brad Fittler’s first choice for the Blues halfback role.

(Photo by Robert Prezioso/Getty Images)

Who to believe? Well, it doesn’t really matter, and we’ll never really know. So all that’s left to do is decide how this prediction should be adjudicated, for which there is probably one of two ways:

1. It’s incorrect, as Pearce did not technically play 7 for NSW.

2. The prediction is ruled to be ‘N/A’.

In a case of extreme convenience, I’m the judge, jury and executioner of this piece each year, and I rule that it is number two.

Verdict: the prediction is null and void.

Overall
Maths was never my strong point, as evidenced by the fact I just scored 4.5 out of 4 for my 2018 predictions. That’s as impressive as it is impossible!

However, after some very rough years with these predictions – and some even rougher sledging from Roarers – I will happily, gleefully and cockily take it, even if the judges were a little bit ‘generous’.

Go me!