Where to from here for Freo? A supporter's view

There has been a lot of talk in the past week about what Fremantle should and should not be doing vis a vis trades with Lachie Neale and Tom Hogan.

Most of it has focused on the public statements about the trades themselves rather than the background and facts.

It would be impossible to mount a compelling argument that Freo is likely to be in a premiership window within two years. In fact, it would be difficult (but not impossible as the Demons have shown) to mount a case for three years from here.

Both Nat Fyfe and Fremantle fell short of what they’re capable of in 2018 (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

However, on the basis that there is a premiership opportunity for every club at some future time, Freo must consider where it needs to be in the window of three to five years and how best to get there.

Part of any successful strategy must include elements of internal development of existing young players, recruitment in the draft(s), general trade and then specific high worth trade targets.

Contrary to outsider views, Dockers members are of the view that they have a strong young list of players coming through.

Young players such as Adam Cerra, Ed Langdon et al are seen as part of an exciting future for the Dockers and have been one of the few positives for the club in 2018. In three years, the current crop of young players will have 60 to 100 games each under their belts and will clearly be an important feature of the club.

The current club champions such as Aaron Sandilands, David Mundy and Hayden Ballantyne will, sadly not be there.

It is generally accepted that when a club feels that their premiership window opens they will aggressively pursue one or two key position players to provide the point of difference it needs to get to (and win) a premiership final.

Clearly then, at the right point in time, Freo will need to do that. But that point is clearly not now – nobody is suggesting that 2019 or 2020 are likely premierships year for Freo.

By contrast, clubs like Collingwood, Melbourne, Essendon feel they are in that window now and have no choice but to do what they need to do.

Freo entered into the 2018 trade period with a weak hand. Few draft picks meant that apart from pick six they had little to offer another club. So, what should they do?

The 2018 draft is considered by many to be a “super draft”. I am no expert on drafts but those that claim to be consistently tell us that the draft talent is the strongest it has been for years.

For my money, Freo have done well so far. They have picked up an experienced, hard, reasonably versatile midfield player that will be in their best 25. They have traded their single pick six into a flexible bunch of picks that they can either use in the trade week or in the draft.

So far so good.

Now it gets harder. Lachie Neale has requested a trade and nominated a preferred club.

Lachie Neale. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Much has been reported but it is telling that neither he nor his manager have spoken publicly on this so we don’t truly know how serious he is or whether this is a contract negotiating tactic.

Given some of the unsubstantiated claims made by experienced reporters over this trade season, the only thing that is sure is that any reporting is unreliable.

The exception is when there is a verified public statement which there has not been. It is clear that if Lachie stays then he will be in his prime when the premiership window opens up.

He is a “must keep” player for the Dockers but maybe not a “must keep at any cost player”. The other factor is of course that his contract expires at the end of 2019.

If he definitely doesn’t want to be there in 2020 then the club needs to consider that and get the most for him now.

Debate is high on his worth, but it is generally accepted that he is worth more than a first round pick. Pick five plus a second round 2019 pick has been rumoured.

The Dockers would be looking for pick five, an early second round pick in 2018 given the strength of this year’s draft.

A pick in 2019 doesn’t give Freo time to develop a +50 game player for the start of its premiership window but a 2018 pick definitely would.

Then comes the question of Jesse Hogan. The Dockers have courted Hogan and many other key forwards over the last three years but to no effect.

Jesse Hogan of the Demons celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Hogan has suffered from a serious and potentially career-limiting injury in 2018 which does reduce his market value a little, no matter what the Demons might say publicly.

Does a single key forward with a possible performance cloud give them much in 2019? Does it open a premiership window?

The answer is yes, and no. Ignoring the injury and potential future performance impact, a four-year contract would give them their key forward over the opening of the premiership window.

However, a four-year contract at the end of 2019 also gives them that and it comes with less risk as the injury question should have been resolved.

As he is currently contracted, a deal next year when the contract ends would also provide Freo with a better outcome.

Weigh all this against the risk of maybe not getting their man next year and the certainty this year that any deal will prevent them from participating in the best draft in years.

What to do?
• If Lachie Neale truly doesn’t want to be at Freo next year and the risk of him departing at the end of next season is certain then let him go. He has earned the right to be treated with respect. Getting pick five plus an early second round pick isn’t a bad result in the current draft.

• Given that Rory Lobb has nominated Freo as his home next year and he can play forward as a real marking and goal scoring option then do that deal first. It is reported that pick 11 and a late 2nd round pick would close that deal. That is a good deal as Lobb is a big man that can play multiple key roles and they are always in short supply.

• If the Hogan deal can be done on the Dockers terms, then do the deal but don’t pay over the odds. Above all remember that there is likely to be a second bite to this cherry.

• If there is no trade for Hogan then Freo have the currency (pick 5) to either draft the best key forward that is available in the 2018 draft. There are a number this year that would be good pickups. They will then be potentially valuable players in 2021 with ~50 games by the end of that season. You never know, they might be that “go to” player in 2020.

• Trade out any player that is clearly not going to be in your best 30 in 2021. The Dockers have been reported as offering Harley Bennell as trade bait this season but there are others that can be used to gain draft picks in 2019 and 2020. Those trades can then be potentially used as a small part of the solution to gain that one key player immediately prior to a premiership window.

Harley Bennell of the Dockers (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

• Think about the point above during the subsequent trade window in 2019. Maybe some 2019 picks can be swapped for better 2020 picks.

Above all, Freo needs to ensure that it doesn’t fall for the media hype and doesn’t give away future draft picks unless there is a compelling reason to do so.

My message to Freo is this.

Do the deals that make sense but if they don’t then keep you powder dry Freo. 2019 is not going to be your year and the supporters know it. If you can demonstrate that there is a plan and some spine within the club management then the supporters are with you.