Tuesday’s stats dump for the four National Rugby Championship finalists was interesting to compile – and to read when all put down on paper.
If nothing else, it highlighted how differently the Fijian Drua play the game – which isn’t an earth-shattering revelation, I’ll concede – and how close Queensland Country, the Western Force, and the Canberra Vikings are.
So what will the four teams’ approaches be this weekend? And what can’t they afford to do?
Quite obviously, Fiji will want to maintain the fast-tempo game, and look to maximise the number of bodies in motion to ensure their support and offload game remains the very obvious strength it is. Though they do plenty of attacking from their side of halfway, most of their clean breaks are up through the middle and not out wide, so they’ll be looking to get the ball in behind Vikings defenders one way or another.
John Stewart of Fiji runs. (Photo by Zak Kaczmarek/Getty Images)
They don’t want to play set piece rugby. They’ve got some big boppers, for sure, but they don’t have the best scrum, which even with Canberra’s pack being pinged all over the park last week will still be a target area for the Vikings. At least four Canberra lineout jumpers will be reason not to kick the ball out.
Canberra, just as obviously, will be wanting to do the complete opposite. They do want to play a set piece game, and they do want to play it at their own pace. They’ll want to commit the Fijians both to a tackle contest and into the breakdown, so as to create the room out wide for own their speed men.
But they also need to stay connected in defence and make sure there is no opportunity for the Drua to offload. Stop their offload, and you go a long way toward slowing them down and drying up their supply of broken play ball.
They don’t want to get sucked into playing catch-up rugby, dare I say ‘Fijian’ rugby, from the outset, because they last time they did this, they found themselves down 33-7 shortly before halftime.
If they’re going to kick, they need to make sure they find touch, and even then it needs to be aiming for the benches and the ball kids to ensure no possibility of a quick throw-in. The Vikings need to set their pillaging tendencies aside; speed will not be their friend in Lautoka.
Queensland Country have a great ability to flick the switch between defence and attack, and it won’t surprise anyone to see Jock Campbell and Jordan Paia’aua in the top six try-scorers this season. Country also have one of the more balanced games in the NRC this season, and a couple of mid-season losses were probably a sharp reminder that they can win just by playing to their strengths.
So their dos and don’ts are pretty simple. They don’t really want to change much, and they don’t really need to.
They do want to kick and kick-chase well, to close down Rod Davies’ space. They probably should avoid a lineout battle with a couple of old heads in Jeremy Thrush and Leon Power, but will find themselves well suited to a breakdown battle if that’s required. 18-year-old Tom Kibble has been a superb replacement for 20-year-old Liam Wright, and will match up well against Chris Alcock despite the experience difference.
If Hamish Stewart and Duncan Paia’aua have strong games in the midfield, Country will be well placed.
James Tuttle, captain of Queensland Country. (Photo by Jason O’Brien/Getty Images)
On the other hand, the Western Force won’t really want to change much. They’ll know from experience in their two most recent must-win (and did win) clashes with Queensland Country that they just had to stay within reach and be prepared to play the game to the very end.
With the exception of two comfortable wins over the NSW sides, the Force haven’t blown teams away but nor have they been thumped themselves. Their biggest loss was the ten-point margin to Canberra in Canberra, and though that game was essentially decided by second half scrum penalties, it remained scoreless for the last 12 minutes.
If the Force can stay within touching distance, or even hold a small lead, they’ll back their grinding ability from there.
Ian Prior leads the Force onto the field. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Certainly, they’ll want to limit Petaia’s opportunities, and Filipo Daugunu’s too, which in turn will dry up the chances for Campbell’s excellent support game to click into gear. Midfield pressure on Stewart and Paia’aua can bring benefits, and their set piece is well-tuned to giving it to the young Country pack.
Then if they can find some space to put Davies away in, he doesn’t get run down too often, even these days.
I’m really looking forward to these semis. We had two cracking games last weekend, but I have a sneaking suspicion they’ll both be topped this weekend.
Final NRC table
Fiji 27, Queensland Country 24, Western Force 23, Canberra 22; Brisbane City 18, Melbourne 13, NSW Country 6, Sydney Rays 1.
NRC semi-finals
SATURDAY
Fijian Drua (1st) v Canberra Vikings (4th) – Churchill Park, Lautoka, Fiji; 4.00pm FST/ 3.00pm AEDT, LIVE on FOX SPORTS
SUNDAY
Queensland Country (2nd) v Western Force (3rd) – Bond University, Gold Coast; 2.00pm AEST/3.00pm AEDT, LIVE on FOX SPORTS
TIPS
Despite home ground advantage not counting for much of an advantage this season – home teams have won 13 of 28 games played to date in 2018 – I think finals time is when you really want it, and both Fiji and Queensland Country are well placed to take advantage.
Both sides are playing their particular game well, and that won’t count for nothing this weekend.
But…
If any two teams are capable of pulling off an upset semi-final win this season, it’s the Western Force and Canberra. The Force have already beaten Queensland Country this season, have already beaten Queensland Country at Bond Uni this season, and Canberra came within one dropped pass of beating Fiji in Fiji, too.
Both sides did it by controlling the second half and playing the game they way they needed to play it, and they’ll both be confident they can do that again this weekend.
Therefore, we’re looking at a Fiji-Queensland Country Final. Or a Western Force-Canberra Final.
Conclusion: NRC 2018 has been difficult to tip…
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
If AAC gets picked ahead of Jordan Petaia for the EOYT, that will be the nail in M.Cheika's coffin for me. One tries not to bash a coach too much, but Cheika makes it difficult not to at times. But I don't think it will happen as AAC will lose his pension if he earns income over $172/fn. :)
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Brett and a weekend of NRC semis to keep us rugger-bu99ers all happy. Great summation and to be sure it's pretty hard to pick a winner in either game, especially the Sat clash in Fiji. The Fijian Drua side hasn't been announced but wow, can those Fijian large forwards run and offload like its 7's on speed. Capable of putting 50 on any side. I see 6 of the Drua forwards and the 2 halves have been selected in the Flying Fijian EoYT squad. Really shows their strength and the WB play Fiji in the RWC2019; a danger game indeed. The Vikings are stronger this week with Pete Samu returning on the bench and their forwards have been killing them of late. Not discounting the backlines but the battle of the piggies is salivating. Agree with your article elsewhere that Len Ikitau is a star in the making. Very good running the ball and when he tackles his opposite number, the poor bloke often hangs around that spot looking for his ribs. As an aside Brett, in the Viking's blog on the weekend I asked "does Darcy Swain in his headgear look like Ben Mowen?" He plays like Mowen also, or is the grog affecting my eyesight? I fancy Qld Country chances even though their form of late has not been outstanding. Two losses then they beat up the 2 NSW sides (who didn't??) and even those games were close up to the 50 min mark. They really seem to miss Liam Wright and badly need a big-time THP. This is where the game hinges, the Force really hunt as a tight pack, well above their composite weight. And Kieran Longbottom is destroying opposition scrums and in mauls for fun. So If the Qld forwards can somehow hold parity, their backline will shred the Force, otherwise the Force pressure and penalties will see them into the finals. For all the punters, Brett's last line is the one to follow. Too difficult so spend the money on chocolates for the Missus and kids. And enjoy the rugby! :)
MitchO
Guest
Cheers Brett. I have not been watching the NRC, don't have Fox and have been busy during home games but watching the Force Alcock still seemed up to playing super rugby to me. You know all these guys - so do you think in Tom Kibble there is another teenage 7 who is not far away from being super rugby standard? How big is he? I'm hoping he's more McMahon / Dempsey than a Pocock / Hooper / Hardwick. And where is Hardwick? One of these nuggety 7 types needs to try transition to hooker or halfback.
AJ
Guest
Great experience for the younger players and good to hear some teenagers getting in there.
piru
Roar Rookie
Yeah Sheikh I think that's the better option - NIB would look pretty empty. Bonus would be the cameras catching the sea of blue rather than the empty sideline
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
No, Perth Glory are at home this weekend (21st) and in Melbourne next weekend (28th). But NIB is probably too expensive to hire for the comp, and I doubt there'd be much more than 5-6,000 even for a home GF. That could fit on the hill, especially if the cameras go on the other side (the space used for the camera scaffolding, and requirement for clear space behind it easily reduce the hill's capacity by ~500, and essentially cuts the hill in half
Jamie Hevia
Roar Rookie
Absolutely! I’m really disappointed in the rebels and Tahs actually. It is very clear that the reds and brumbies have it right. Explains a lot actually
piru
Roar Rookie
Definitely not enough room on the hill for a GF crowd - but that said the atmosphere would be amazing. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though
Pavid Docock
Guest
Cheers Brett. Found it!
Brett McKay
Expert
hasn't happened, thankfully... Morgan Turinui's comments on the Waratahs' and Rebels' handling of the NRC this season are equally revealing and horrifying!
Brett McKay
Expert
Interestingly RahRah, Canberra had three or four handling error in the last six of seven minutes in their game in Fiji while leading, which ultimately allowed the Drua to score the match-winner. Can't afford to play into their hands!
Brett McKay
Expert
PD - if you head to https://www.foxsports.com.au/video/rugby the game is there among all other rugby videos this week. Seems it missed a 'NRC' tag or something...
Brett McKay
Expert
Not to mention how the scrums are ref'd, Dwards. There's been an uncomfortable amount of evident guesswork in recent weeks. Glad you liked my conclusion(s), I worked long and hard on them!! :lol:
Brett McKay
Expert
Correct Piru - I wonder if it would still be at McGillivray though? The hill might not be big enough! (Mind you, are Perth Glory at home next weekend?)
Ex force fan
Guest
Agree. Force played to loose, they should have tried to scrum the whole evening and milk penalty after penalty. We also stopped mauling when it worked well to pull Fiji defenders in and leave gaps on the outside
Ex force fan
Guest
How different is the NRC experience to Superugby. Games are less predictable and even the finals cannot be picked.
piru
Roar Rookie
Really felt like they were getting ahead of themselves trying to match the Fijians
piru
Roar Rookie
So if the Force and Canberra both win, the final will be in Perth, do I have that right?
Dwards
Roar Rookie
Thanks Brett, Excellent summary and very clear conclusions. :) Having now watched the Force Drua game from last week I would also add that it depends to some extent on how the ruck is reffed. It might have been desperation, but the Force were very lucky not to receive a number of ruck penalties last week and will need to maintain their discipline next week. Having said - Go Country!!! To be honest though, the Country/Force game strikes me as the two most organised/formed teams going at each other at what should be the peak of their seasons - should be fun. And Rod Davies does have me a little worried.
Jamie Hevia
Roar Rookie
No worries, fascinating to listen how the NZ system works and what we are doing wrong in Aus, no saying we should mirror everything but we should definitely adopt some of the mentality, the emphasis they place on the ITM Cup - Pathway is what we should be aiming for. NRC could be so much more and as M Turinui mentions Club Rugby is not close to the level that is required. How do you feel about ACC being selected in the Wallabies squad? That's the rumour. I'm really scratching my head!