Any time a rookie draft selection hits a milestone someone in footy media trots out the term ‘Moneyball’.
It’s a reference to a book by Michael Lewis about Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics in Major League Baseball. The Oakland As used analytics to mastermind a championship-winning team at a cut price rate compared to their competitors. The phrase of course gained momentum when Beane was portrayed by Brad Pitt and the term entered Australian football vernacular.
But Moneyball is not merely a catchall phrase for landing a left-field selection from the scrap heap. In it’s simplest form, it’s using statistics to determine if the returns are worth the investment.
Somewhere in the Hawthorn Hawks headquarters, perhaps scribbled on a whiteboard or buried in a set of drawers, one can assume someone has calculated that the benefit of trading a high end pick is more likely to provide a better return on investment than the lottery of the draft.
James Coventry, in his book Footballistics, touches on the analysis of evaluating draft picks. Using ‘Player Approximate Value’ created by football analysts Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson, Coventry states, “our system values second-round picks significantly more highly than the AFL’s index.”
The index Coventry refers to is the means by which draft picks are allocated value for academy and father/son selections. It’s a broad assumption, but one could consider if the AFL overvalued first round picks in it’s Draft Value Index that football departments throughout the league might be making the same mistake.
Certainly a review of Gold Coast’s track record with their vast array of first round picks shows they aren’t a free hit at signing a star.
The Hawks have shown a distain for their first round picks, albeit most coming late in the round due to their recent dominance. In the last decade, Hawthorn have had only two top 20 picks – recently departed Ryan Burton from 2015 and Isaac Smith who is now considered a veteran being drafted in 2010.
Alastair Clarkson. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
While the trend has been going on since the peak of Hawthorn’s premiership reign, the Hawks ‘rebuild on the fly’ went into overdrive when the club jettisoned the likes of Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge.
However, rather than bottoming out and dipping into the draft, the club’s preference was known quantities of established players.
By the close of the 2018 trade period, in aggregate, the Hawks had jettisoned their 2015 first rounder (Ryan Burton), Bradley Hill, their 2016 first and second round picks (16 and 36), their 2017 first and second round picks (7 and 26) and their first and second round picks in 2018 for the trio of Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara and Chad Wingard.
For those playing at home, that’s three first rounders, three second rounders, Ryan Burton and Bradley Hill for Mitchell and Jaeger and Wingard. How do you weigh up the numbers?
If your club was handed those picks, could they swindle a Brownlow medalist, a two-time All-Australian and a dynamic mid-field prospect? Most likely not.
But you can get a decade or more of service from a top pick! Well, maybe, if he is of course a good footballer. What the Hawks do have is O’Meara aged 24, Mitchell and Wingard aged 25. The trio are entering the prime of their powers and ready to make an impact now – not simply carry the label of potential.
Jaeger O’Meara of the Hawks (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
While top picks might be sexy, they can be down right irrelevant. Follow those picks through and you find the list reading as Todd Mitchell (pick 16 2016), Ben Long (pick 25 2016), Josh Battle (pick 39 2016), Hunter Clark (pick 7 2017), Liam Ryan (pick 26 2017) and the 2018 first and second rounders.
Clark, befitting his draft number, is the most promising of the bunch. His 15 disposals per game in his debut season and class in the eye test suggests he could rack up 200 games, but will he be an All-Australian? Will he be a Brownlow Medalist?
Liam Ryan is now a premiership player and full of flair and skill, but Chad Wingard has been racking highlights for years now and with the off field controversy following Liam Ryan he’s as likely to be out of the league by the end of next season as he is to finish the decade with West Coast.
Chad Wingard is on the move. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
The Hawks approach is supported by drafting for need in the later rounds. The same year Clark went pick seven, the Hawks selected James Worpel at pick 45. Worpel doesn’t necessarily scream class, but he is fit for purpose.
A hard-nosed midfielder who loves the contest, Worpel beat out Clark in contested possessions, clearances and inside 50s. His rough and ready approach highlighted when he stared down Joel Selwood and barged in unrelentingly winning the football in the process.
Paul Puopolo set the benchmark for this approach. The mature aged diminutive forward was not one to set the combine alight or have recruiters fawning over ‘potential’ but he was a small forward capable of asserting immense pressure and possessing a crafty goal sense.
He’s now a three-time premiership player drafted at pick 66.
Hawthorn also benefit from the salary discount of later picks, as Coventry states in Footballistics. “Clubs might overpay certain players for a variety of reasons, including perceived potential, or the prestige associated with high picks.”
As a result Hawthorn have been a prominent player since the introduction of free agency with signings Ty Vickery, Ricky Henderson and James Frawley and swooping on trades for Jack Gunston and most recently Tom Scully. Although in the case of Vickery you could suggest the results haven’t been ‘surefire’.
The Hawks still have an ageing list and will need to find a way to replace key names like Jarryd Roughhead, Shaun Burgoyne, James Frawley and the recently retired Cyril Rioli.
However, with a core of Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston and Wingard all acquired via trade along with later picks of Sicily, O’Brien, Hardwick and Howe, the premiership window might remain open into the 2020s.
One thing seems the case, if Hawthorn call to discuss trades, you should probably hang up.
Jones
Guest
And so all the opposition teams wish!
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Got lucky? What game did you watch? Four unrewarded frees in the Eagles forward fifty in the last ten minutes, desperate defence from the Pies was not enough and the weight of possession eventually told. But,you believe what you like about the past. Condoned thuggery = unsociable, undeserved homeground advantage = the AFL yearly bonus,freekick heaven= preferred umpires for finals and let's ask the question again,who is closer to a premiership? The Hawks or the Eagles? Demons,Pies and Tigers failed this year,Hawks fell for the first time in 12 years. Don't bring the 'tainted' brush too near to your single eye. Shall we forget about 1991 as well?
Macca
Roar Rookie
My list only differs to yours because yours includes players who aren't under 25 next season. And you could include others under 22 but that would mean you would have to push out other player from your 22 because you can only have 22. If we included players like Puopolo, Roughead and Frawley you have listed 23 players for you 22 and that excludes Mira and Henderson who were clearly best 22 players at the end of this year. If you actually list a 22 rather than players you think are in it this discussion would make more sense. But even if we include all 7 of the players that are under 25 and in YOUR best 22 that only leaves 7 players in the 22 under 25 which is very low. And again you seem to think my criticism of the Hawks is saying the blues are better - all I am saying is the Hawks recruiting looks remarkably similar to what got the blues into trouble 20 years ago.
Macca
Roar Rookie
That's exactly the point, the Hawks should be trading out these mature players who aren't in their best 22 that other clubs would take in a heart beat and try and balance out their list.
Dean
Guest
Macca, you might want to read my post. I did include Birchall, you can't just gloss over it to help your argument. If the blues are getting in guys like Lang and fasolo they would take Birchall, whitecross and Henderson in a heart beat
Dean
Guest
Hawks are not winning the premiership next year, don't know when l just don t want them to bottom out. what l am saying is your list of under 25 differs from mine because l could probably add a couple more because yes l do not think Langford, schoey and whitecross are in our best 22. If they can get some games into key position players like Lewis and brand they will be all the better for it. You cannot say that there isnt a strong core group of about 10 players in their prime aging from 24 to 28. I could include Scrimshaw like you have included Setterfield as he was only 2 picks behind but he has to show something to me to be put in my best 22. No young player is guaranteed to be a superstar. Too much emphasis is put on young draftees. If you listen to the experts it's a gamble, doesn't matter if it's pick 1 or 70. Know one knows how they will progress. I mentioned cousins who had an outstanding year in the vfl and was in the tac best 22 team that hopefully will get game time. It's not all rosy for the blues but it seems you think it is. Proof is in the pudding, whether they drop off or not, very happy with the success.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Hamish - we wouldn't be cutting Kennedy and Hurn but we would be looking to trade the likes of Schoenmakers, Langford, Birchall, Whitecross, Mira and Henderson who are 27 or more and apparently aren't in you best 22
Macca
Roar Rookie
Dean - you may well win the premiership next year with the oldest list, but Carlton were a very good at the turn of the century right up to the point they were terrible because they didn't plan for the future properly. As for refuting you, when you include 25 year olds in an "under 25 list" and just list players you under 25 as in your best 22 without actually naming a best 22 and end up with closer to a best 25 or 26 don't be surprised when someone calls you on it.
Dean Brooks
Guest
You might want to check what Simpson had to say about Clarkson, that he owed him so much and learnt a great deal from him. Your going to find it hard to go back to back . I have the demons,pies,tigers and bombers all ahead of you. Got lucky this year with an unrewarded free kick not to mention the tainted victory of 2006. Player acknowledges he was on drugs and nothing done about it. That's entitlement. To compare unsociable to a bad culture is laughable. One was a term of praise the other wasn't, there on opposite ends of the spectrum
Dean
Guest
Lot of if's there. If the mids stay together, if McKay comes good, if curnow stays, if they play well together. So your assuming that Mitchell, omeara, worpel, wingard and players around that age have all retired. Hope your not serious. I hope you guys can win something for your sake. Must of been hard to see your side crumble while other teams became successful. Had a slogan a while, you have been coming for a long time.
Dean
Guest
Haha what a grab at fresh air, counting back to the premierships in he early nineties. When the weagles win 3 in a row bud then we can talk.
Dean
Guest
Yeah your right Macca, no point asking my thoughts when you just refute everything. You seem to know more about hawthorn than l do. I could add a few other players to the list but you would just refute those too. Once again l will continue to back wright and the recruiters to make the best decision for hawthorn Just thought l would remind you that we had the oldest team in 2015 and win the premiership easily. Age dies not matter if they are gun players. Sam Mitchell will be a great addition as a mid field coach seeing what he has done for the eagles so the young mids will get an extensive education. Don't think we can meet on common ground Macca, both the blues and hawks have list issues. I see hawthorn anywhere from 6-10. Not sure where the blues will finish but will improve and won't win the wooden spoon.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Righto Dean so under 25 rules out Wingard and Mitchel (as they are 25) and O'meara will be 25 before the season starts (in Feb) so that leaves 7, one of which (Brand will turn 25 in April) and he has managed just 38 games in 6 years. Also it is interesting that you have actually named 20 players and then put question marks over Frawley, Roughhead and Puopolo. You haven't listed players like Mirra or Henderson who were both playing finals last year and have obviously put a line through the likes of Birchall, Whitecross, Schoenmakers & Langford. It seems to me 7 will be the maximum under 25 contingent next year in the 22 which is an incredibly low number and will more than likely have you playing the oldest team in the league most weeks.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Who'll take up the slack for him then when he's asked to man up and can't be bothered? Never said that the Eagles don't recruit wisely from other clubs . They're better because of where they are now. And your comments about culture are so last decade. I may as well say that the 'unsociable,entitled, favoured ' Hawks haven't gotten over not being very good any more,now that their bevy of poached players and the superannuants on the list are all reaching their use-by-date. But of course I wouldn't say that. As for your mention of Simpson and the Eagles' debt to the Hawks, Clarkson owes an awful lot to Pagan and North,but that doesn't fit your narrative. Simpson devised a remarkable defensive system around the loss of the Eagles' best defenders and AC had nothing to do with that. Also,you don't count very well. It's five to four at the moment and the Eagles are closer to another flag than the Hawks,despite the wonderful recruiting and drafting and acquiring. Best of luck with your players. Be a shame if you needed it
Hamish
Roar Rookie
Great age bracket. Last few years screwed it but WCE showed - few young role players, guns in their prime, veterans on the back end = premiership window. Carlton would be cutting Josh Kennedy & hurn because of their age.
Dean Brooks
Guest
Macca, you clearly see nothing wrong with the blues list in my opinion. Debatable who you think is top 22 and what l think but considering that l support the club, let's see. Mitchell 25 Hardwick 21 Omeara 24 Howe 22 Sicily 23 Morrison 21 Impey 23 Worpel 20 Wingard 25 Brand 24 I think cousins should be in at 20 but leave him out for now. Gunston 27 Shiels 27 Scully 27 ceglar 27 Breust 28 Stratton 28 I included the next tier to show in my opinion that 16 out of the best 22 still have a lot of football in them. Macca it's not a premiership winning team but it has a good nucleus of young, mid range and senior players when you throw in Smith, Birchall, Mcevoy and Burgoyne. Not sure how much footy is left in roughy. I am not sure if Frawley and puoppolo will play all year and they might be slowly transitioned out throughout the year. Satisfied?
Macca
Roar Rookie
Death comes to us all Brian, the Hawks have done well kicking the can down the road but I have real fears that instead of accepting their mortality in 2016 and facing a short period of rebuilding they have kept themselves relevant for a couple more years but made the inevitable decline a much bigger problem.
Macca
Roar Rookie
And any chance you could answer my question - how many of the Hawks best 22 are under 25?
Macca
Roar Rookie
Dean - I find it funny that you seem to think that there isn't a problem at Hawthorn because you are better than Carlton. As for Cripps, 1) who said he will have to wait that long, 2) he has never got to inside a year to go on his contract before extending (I think he has extended 4 times now) and is now contracted for the next 3 years 3) he has just been made captain which makes moving less likely and finally if by the time his current contract finishes the blues aren't making finals he should leave.
Macca
Roar Rookie
" Is it going to be another 5 year rebuild?" We are going into year 4 of the 5 year rebuild and everything is pretty much on track. In 2 years a midfield of Cripps, Kennedy, Dow, O'Brien, Setterfield, Fisher, SPS and Walsh will be one of the best in the AFL and will be kikcing into a forward line with Curnow, McKay and McGovern just coming into the peak of their powers - who will be still playing for the Hawks?