Sitting at the pub and listening to the conversations around who will win the flag in 2019 – and ignoring the biases – three common choices stand out.
1) The defending champions – West Coast.
2) The best team of the home and away season in 2018 – Richmond
3) The challengers of 2018 – Collingwood
I thought it was worth doing a statistical exercise in trying to understand which team has the greater chance of winning the 2019 flag.
For the purposes of this exercise I reviewed data from the past 30 years. Specifically I looked at the following year finishing position of premiers, grand finalists, and minor premiers who finished at least game clear on the ladder but failed to win the premiership (happened on ten out of the 30 years).
The statistics show that on 20 per cent of the occasions the defending premiers have won, 17 per cent of the time the grand finalists have won – and interestingly on 50 per cent of the occasions the minor premiers who were a game clear on the ladder but failed to win the flag succeeded the following year.
To support Richmond’s case even stronger, I looked at the following year finishing position of minor premiers who finished at least two games clear on the ladder but failed to win the flag. This happened on four occasions, and the team won the flag the following year on three occasions and lost in a grand final replay on the other occasion.
So what can we gauge from this for 2019? Clearly teams that perform exceptionally well during the home and away season but fail in the finals get it right the following season more often than not.
However before we all rush out to the local TAB and bet our house on a Richmond premiership, it is worth noting this simple exercise fails to take into account variations from year to year for player movements, injuries, and the age profile of the club.
Also the sample size is rather small. Then there are anomalies, such as Fremantle who finished a game clear on the ladder in 2015 but finished in 16th spot the following season.
On a lighter note more recently the past four grand finalists have finished fifth, 13th, eighth, 13th the previous year. Maybe it is lucky 13th next year? Bulldogs fans rejoice, you will be playing in a grand final in 2019.
Adam
Guest
I not the one looking for a fight. The camp was a fail but as usual the Victorian media made up complete rubbish because they didn't know what happened. People like you only keep on about it because of your narrow mindset. Like I said on an earlier post time to move on.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Adam, the Crows went from grand final favourites to 12th in a season. That is a story in itself.There is a reason for that fall besides injuries. look at the Pies, Eagles, GWS injury count. The mind camp has had a huge media focus all year. It is a story worth pursuing and one I feel it will be years before the truth comes out. (Usually when players involved retire). I'm not going to rate the Crows low in 2019 just to give you the fight you are craving. When lists are finalised I'll go through and predict a ladder as I see it.
Adam
Guest
Easy cop out. Why then bring up the camp over and over again.
IAP
Guest
The top 6 all finished within 2 games; it was a very tight year at the top.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I haven't published my prediction ladder yet Adam. Won't do until lists are finalised.
Adam
Guest
Let's just see how things go next season. Then when the crows make the finals you can be a big man and admit that you were wrong.
Ravi
Roar Rookie
LOL - witty Don Freo
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Lol, Hitler could have been running that camp too Don by the sounds of it.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Nice response Slane and to be fair Ive probably spent more time thinking of negatives of Lynch since he chose the Tigers over the Pies and Hawks rather than the positives. Will be interesting indeed especially as we face the Tigers in round 2. If Moore is fit, he will probably play on Lynch.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
"Mind Camp?" Did Hitler write that?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Me too. They tell me they are working on it. What kind of a new system do they have that won't allow it? Nothing has improved.
Slane
Guest
Interesting that in your comment about not using one statistic in isolation to prove a point you've decided to go ahead and use 1 statistic in isolation to prove a point. Richmond had 18 players play 20+ games. 3 play 10+ games and 17 play less than 10 games. Geelong had 17 players play 20+ games. 9 play 10+ games and 10 played less than 10 games. Which one of those teams has AMAZING continuity? Geelong had 25 players play more than 10 games, Richmond only had 21.
Cat
Roar Guru
There is a reason I generally try not to go with a single stat – its often misleading. I noticed you picked one of the two I mentioned and conveniently ignored the other. I mentioned in '17 the Tigers had 9 players play all 25 games. Geelong had 2 in comparison. The number of players used by itself is misleading. A player could come and go in and out several times and still only counts once. A team may keep calling the same 23rd man up for each injury.
Ravi
Roar Rookie
Agree with two things 1) The players went through a lot of pain. But the club that orchestrated the cheating, benefited in the the draft. 2) Yes I'm biased against drug cheats. The whinging from Essendon matched that of the Russian Olympic squad. They tried it on and were rightly punished - they but the AFL was wrong to give Essendon the # 1 pick. Watson got his only AA selection that year and kept it at Sam Mitchell's expense. Hird was in charge and was sanctioned. Bomber... well he was obviously innocent too wasn't he?
Slane
Guest
I don't know if I'd describe myself as a 'mad Tigers fan' PtS. I try to be level headed and at least acknowledge my own bias. The 'mad' fans are the ones who predict a premiership every year and microwave their memberships when times are tough. A significant 'in' at the expense of some depth is an interesting scenario. I'm not sure how it's going to pan out. I think there are a lot of opposition supporters in Victoria that are lying to themselves about how 'bad' Tom Lynch is, they are desperately trying to convince themselves that he isn't one of the best tall forwards in the comp drafted after 2010. I'm sure somebody can make an argument for Darling, Daniher or Hogan but it's a bit of a moot point. It wasn't until after halfway through the 2017 season that Richmond began using Riewoldt as the solo tall forward. It will be very interesting to see how adding another tall will change our look. I'm happy to predict a top 4 finish and a Grand Final birth but the competition is as even as I've ever seen it. The Tigers could struggle to adjust to the new gameplan, let alone the new rules. Exciting times ahead.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Hmmm, you must refer to Josh Thomas, Lachie Keefe (2015) and Sam Murray (2018). Sam came from the Swans and was first year in. We didn't have time to educate him. He also "blew" his chance of playing in a Grand Final this year silly fellow. Let's see what B sample brings in. The other report was a rubbish Slobbo story in the Herald Sun where he admitted making up or "estimating" the number of recreational drug users involved. Your clutching at proverbials Adam.
Adam
Guest
No you just play at the mcg and have players always testing positive for drug use.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I miss email notifications most. Used to be so much easier to keep track of a convo
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Damn I miss the edit button in here.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
As a mad Tigers fan, what's your take on the Tigers propsects in 2019 Slane?