The thing about pass marks is that they have to be possible, achievable, and believable. But either way, rendering a pass mark ‘unattainable’ at the first attempt is never a good look.
For what it’s worth – and I’ve deliberately gone back to review when it was originally said – I don’t actually believe that Rugby Australia CEO Raelene Castle was saying that three Spring Tour wins was the defined benchmark to which the Wallabies, and specifically Michael Cheika, would be held.
Castle was asked directly before the Tour what a pass mark would be, but her answer danced around it.
“Oh, they are determined to go there and win all three games,” she replied.
“I mean, that’s the start point, that’s the pass mark from where they are, from their perspective.
“That’s the expectation certainly that Michael’s setting for them, and there’s no reason why they can’t do that. They would be very confident that they can come home with three wins.”
Castle didn’t, in my humble opinion, set a pass mark for Cheika and the Wallabies, but rather just repeated their own internal goals.
She certainly said “three wins”; that’s not in doubt. But rather than saying it was a requirement set for Cheika and the squad, Castle’s wording was that three wins was the team’s own target for the tour.
Rugby Australia CEO Raelene Castle. (AAP Image/Daniel Munoz)
What’s the difference, I hear you thinking? Well, if RA actually set three wins as a performance standard that Cheika agreed to, then that’s a mark that he can be held to.
But if it’s just a ‘nice to have’ target that Cheika and team set for themselves, then it’s probably harder to penalise someone for not achieving an ambition. I still want to be a fireman when I grow up, but should I be made an example of when I inevitably fall short?
Interestingly, all the reporting has been along the lines of ‘Castle sets pass mark’, but curiously, neither Castle or Rugby Australia attempted to correct this narrative as it was being told.
The only way now that we’ll know for sure is if anything happens at the conclusion of the tour. And who’s holding their breath for that, with a 3-and-8 record in 2018, and ten wins from the last 25 Tests?
Which brings me to the suddenly very curious match-up this weekend against Italy in Padua early Sunday morning, AEDT.
It looms in my mind, at least, as a classic lose-lose game for Cheika and the Wallabies.
Italy have never beaten Australia in 17 previous matches going back to 1983, including nine straight wins on Italian soil.
Surely, the Wallabies couldn’t lose to Italy. Surely…
How many times have you seen confident statements like this fall apart?
Now, I’m not going to go as far as saying the Wallabies will definitely lose; but such is the chronic state of affairs at the moment that nothing will surprise me anymore.
The issue for the Wallabies – well, one issue for the Wallabies – this weekend is that no winning margin can possibly be good enough.
Kurtley Beale of the Wallabies looks dejected (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Win by fifty, and the commentary will correctly point out that Italy have lost 36 of the 45 Tests they’ve played in the time Cheika has been at the helm of the Wallabies, including losses to Toga, Fiji, and Japan. They’re one from 20 in Six Nations contests over the same period.
Win by just a try in either a low or a high-scoring contest, and the criticism will practically write itself.
There are so many things that the Wallabies need to do this weekend.
They have to win, obviously; but they also need to play well, play accurately, play at the advantage line and not miles behind it, be precise at the set piece and especially at the breakdown, and for god’s sake, they need to take all kickable penalties, even if just in the first half while building a lead.
Michael Hooper and the Wallabies (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Yet even listing the obvious as I just have, there next to no certainty that even just a majority of these things will happen. So poorly are the Wallabies playing at the moment that it’s hard to have any confidence that what seems obvious from the couch will play out at the Stadio Euganeo.
So here comes a conclusion from left field: I’m genuinely looking forward to watching this Test, purely from the standpoint that I have no idea what to expect.
The Wallabies could play the perfect game of rugby and win by fifty, which would be welcome. They could play even worse than they did last week in Cardiff, making not just the same poor decisions, but even poorer ones again, and that would be intriguing in itself.
They could lose. And it’s scary to think how shockingly not shocking that would be.
All this amounts to a really curious contest. And unfortunately, a contest that even if the Wallabies win, they really won’t have achieved anything at all.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
One really big problem is half of those forwards need a rest so they can rip it into the Poms next week. This happened last year, they were knackered near the end of the year, and lots of injuries, and got flogged in the last two matches (England and Scotland). Rodda, Coleman, TPN, Foley and Beale should not be in this 23. Pocock on the bench but minimum time on field. Though I see R.Arnold and J.Petaia have pulled out, so one of these locks would now have to play.
marfu
Guest
Yes I have noticed Cheika's absence of any mates in the box and thought his assistants are understandably distancing themselves from him to avoid the embarrassment of being guilty by association.
Machiavelli
Guest
The Walla B's have lost all confidence. Until they restore that confidence, all hope is lost. How do they restore it? Well, by being so angry with themselves and their performances would be a good start. And if they lose to Italy, then all the pressure is off...they can just go out and play how they want to play, that would be refreshing. Losing to Italy might not be such a bad thing. It would bring on many changes and we can start again.
CJ
Guest
Just saw the team. This puts a very different complexion on the outcome now. The forwards don't look too bad but the backline is not the best combination on offer. The Italians will be much more competitive now.
Charlie Turner
Guest
Very good Jacko!
linz22
Guest
Wallabies to face Italy 1. Scott Sio (53 Tests) 2. Folau Fainga’a (6 Tests) 3. Taniela Tupou (10 Tests) 4. Izack Rodda (15 Tests) 5. Adam Coleman (29 Tests) 6. Jack Dempsey (8 Tests) 7. Michael Hooper (c) (89 Tests) 8. David Pocock (76 Tests) 9. Jake Gordon* 10. Matt To’omua (40 Tests) 11. Jordan Petaia* 12. Bernard Foley (66 Tests) 13. Samu Kerevi (23 Tests) 14. Adam Ashley-Cooper (116 Tests) 15. Israel Folau (71 Tests) Reserves 16. Tatafu Polota-Nau (87 Tests) 17. Jermaine Ainsley (1 Test) 18. Sekope Kepu (101 Tests) 19. Rory Arnold (19 Tests) 20. Pete Samu (7 Tests) 21. Will Genia (98 Tests) 22. Kurtley Beale (82 Tests) 23. Dane Haylett-Petty (29 Tests) What has Banks done to offend Cheika so much that he can’t get a game against Italy? what has Toomua done to deserve Foley as his 12, Cheika trying to make him look bad so he has an excuse to go back to Foley like he did to Cooper? How is AAC ahead of Banks? Why is Beal even on the bench? so many questions, but it looks to me like Cheika has not really made any changes and has his same underperforming players ready to go from the bench. The Bench tells me that Chieka has not learnt a thing this year.
jeznez
Roar Guru
And because I've said nothing positive about the guy for a while. Happy to see Tupou given a chance to build some more experience starting, good to see Folau Fainga'a back, good to see Arnold in the 23, excellent that Gordon is starting and great that Beale has been benched. However the failure from 11 out ignoring Naivalu and Banks, messing up the centres - if he just made sensible experiments I could handle it. But instead he picks the same old, same old all the time, then picks something ludicrous and when it fails reverts to his same old same old. Here are two more sensible backlines (with options) that would have been good experiments without being crazy: 10. Foley 11. Naivalu/Petaia 12. Toomua 13. Kerevi 14. Folau 15. Banks 10. Toomua 11. Naivalu 12. Kerevi 13. Petaia/Ashley-Cooper 14. Folau 15. Banks But Foley at 12?????? Really???????
Kiwi Bob
Guest
Haha Foley at 12 and AAC at 14? I'm starting to feel sorry for you Wobs. I just can't imagine this kind of rubbish with the All Black's. I'm sure you'll win this one but won't learn much in the process.
jeznez
Roar Guru
First thing I thought of when I saw the team - he's pulled the sabotage play just like he did on Quade. Just wait for Matt isn't enjoying his rugby enough! He's got three guys in his squad that can play 12 Toomua, Beale and Kerevi. He's got three guys in his squad that can play 13 Kerevi (although not his best position), Petaia and Ashley-Cooper He's got two guys in his squad that can play 10 Foley and Toomua So needing to switch his playmakers - what does he do? Puts two of his 13's on the wings, ignoring Banks who was in form the last time he played but who knows what state he is in now and then puts Foley out of position to sabotage his own team as well as Kerevi who struggles in 13 on defence in the line with a very average defensive 12! That said with the musical chairs this team plays under what chance Foley is actually playing as a 12 in D? Look forward to reading the score on Sunday as zero chance I'm getting up to watch this.
cinque
Roar Rookie
Deckchairs. Foley at 12! Wouldn't have picked that in a million years. Hope he does better than he did outside QC a few years back. AAA was good against Wales, so maybe rested or injured. Naivalu unlucky.
AJ
Guest
TEAM IN: Folau Fainga’a, Jake Gordon Jordan Petaia, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Jermaine Ainsley, Rory Arnold, Pete Samu OUT: Tolu Latu, Sefa Naivalu, Ned Hanigan, Nick Phipps, Jack Maddocks, Rob Simmons, Allan Alaalatoa Wallabies to face Italy 1. Scott Sio (53 Tests) 2. Folau Fainga’a (6 Tests) 3. Taniela Tupou (10 Tests) 4. Izack Rodda (15 Tests) 5. Adam Coleman (29 Tests) 6. Jack Dempsey (8 Tests) 7. Michael Hooper (c) (89 Tests) 8. David Pocock (76 Tests) 9. Jake Gordon* 10. Matt To'omua (40 Tests) 11. Jordan Petaia* 12. Bernard Foley (66 Tests) 13. Samu Kerevi (23 Tests) 14. Adam Ashley-Cooper (116 Tests) 15. Israel Folau (71 Tests) Reserves 16. Tatafu Polota-Nau (87 Tests) 17. Jermaine Ainsley (1 Test) 18. Sekope Kepu (101 Tests) 19. Rory Arnold (19 Tests) 20. Pete Samu (7 Tests) 21. Will Genia (98 Tests) 22. Kurtley Beale (82 Tests) 23. Dane Haylett-Petty (29 Tests)
Brett McKay
Expert
Sadly on the blink after it failed to deliver Powerball numbers last week... But, by all means: https://www.theroar.com.au/contribute/
Brett McKay
Expert
Can't disagree with any of that, Akari..
Brett McKay
Expert
Your encouragement means everything, Hoy! :lol:
Brett McKay
Expert
"Sure they lose a lot but they can play well for patches.." Where have I heard that before, Cookie... :lol:
Brett McKay
Expert
Castle is hardly the first sports CEO to dabble in corporate speak, CS. She's not even the first rugby CEO...
Brett McKay
Expert
Appreciate all the comments once again, guys. Will be really interesting to see a). what team is rolled out when named later tonight, and b). how on earth they play...
Tooly
Roar Rookie
I’ve had enough BS from Chekko, Castle, Kafer the media, players and Fox Sports. We are not performing its either the Coach or the players he selects ; same thing really. The loss of the likes of Fardy, White, Gill, Carter, Arnold, Enever, Debreczenie and the failure to fix the inane situation at seven has the balance of the side out of kilter. Jake White would fix our back five and their replacements. Fix that and the backs will fire.
piru
Roar Rookie
Or use your bloody time machine, I'm not here to tell you how to do your job
piru
Roar Rookie
Wasn't aimed at you Brett - was just the most popular article and wanted to know why no one seemed interested. I'd have thought it was important news