This is the 18th of 19 articles looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Finally, the Western Bulldogs.
Back in 2017
The team finished tenth with a home-and-away record of 11-11 with a percentage of 97. The year before, they earned grace with their fans with their miracle run through four finals upsets to their first flag since Footscray back in 1954.
The expectations for the team
The consensus was a ninth-place finish, with surprisingly few placing them as low as they finished. The exception was, ahem, me: my prediction in this publication back in March had them finishing in 13th place. In the interest of honesty, it was the only one I picked exactly right.
Coming into the season, the player who was considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA or The Roar was Marcus Bontempelli (top 15). That was it.
So much for the amazing young roster we looked at in 2016 and thought would dominate for years to come.
In 2018, the team finished
13th with a home-and-away record of 8-14 and a percentage of 77. But the last two teams that finished thirteenth went to the Grand Final the next year – Richmond won it after landing 13th in 2016, and Collingwood came agonisingly close after being 13th in 2017.
It’s been…
Over two years since the Bulldogs last won a flag. Yes, the clock has started ticking again.
It’s been nine years since they earned a double chance (fourth place in 2010). They actually finished higher in 2015 (sixth) than they did in their premiership season of 2016.
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system, the team’s rating this season started at 45 (in 13th) and followed a vague trend downwards towards their season low of 24 after their dismal five-goal performance in Round 19.
Their rating went up as they put a little burst on at season’s end, finishing their season back where they started: 13th, with a rating of 39.7.
Every other system had the Bulldogs 14th, behind Brisbane. Ours places the Lions at 39.5, two tenths below the Doggies.
Across the spectrum game-by-game expectations
Final record: 8-14, 77.3%.
Betting Line expectations: Favored only five times, a record of 5-17. They also went just 8-14 against the spread, tied for lowest in the league.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: We also had them picked at 5-17.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 6-16.
The Roar predictions: The Roar prognosticators only favoured the Dogs four times, expecting them to go 4-18. The individual picks summed to 23-98.
“Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 4.5 wins, 17.5 losses.
The Age forecasters: 6-16; individuals went for the Bulldogs 72 times and against them 192 times.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: 5-17.
My own game-by-game predictions had them at 5-17.
What was their best game of the season?
Arguably, they finished the season with their most impressive game of 2018, even in defeat.
Against a team with a 20-game winning streak at the MCG in progress, the Bulldogs played like Bullgods. They aggressively took Richmond to task at their own fast-paced, play-on style of football and coming within a difficult set-shot of upsetting the minor premiers, losing 98-95 in their final game of 2018.
It would be tantalising to say that following three good-looking victories against the Saints, Kangaroos, and Blues in Round 20-22, the four August games as a whole were the start of an excellent 2019-season-to be.
If you insist on a win for your best game, the 103-101 victory over Geelong in Round 15, where Harry Taylor pushed a game-winning set shot, would be a great candidate.
Which game would they most like to erase from memory?
Round 9’s slogfest in the Adelaide Oval. While the poor play on both sides was forgivable in extreme conditions was forgivable, the truth is that the Crows managed to produce 9.9, despite both weather and missing nine of their best players that night.
Meanwhile, Beveridge’s boys managed to guide only two of their 16 scoring shots between the big pipes, producing their first sub-three goal game in over 50 years.
If we were to speak of the club in as many words as they had wins in 2018
“How long can they savour that one flag?”
Meta-player of the year results
1. Jack Macrae – 390 points (9th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Second (to my complete surprise). Received 14 Brownlow votes, most on the club.
Last year’s result: Second (36th overall).
Notable games: Two dominant games (Round 7-8), four prominent games (Round 6, Round 19, Round 21, Round 23), and four notable games (Round 2-3, Round 9, Round 20).
All-Australian 40-man roster. ELO-FF Top 22. First team midfielder.
2. Marcus Bontempelli – 273 points (28th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Third. Equal second with nine Brownlow votes.
Last year’s result: First in 2017 (9th overall) and 2016 (5th overall).
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 21), three prominent games (Round 6, Round 8, and Round 22), and one notable game (Round 13).
2016’s premiers were 2017 and 2018 non-finalists. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
3. Lachie Hunter – 199 points (55th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: First (to my complete surprise). Equal second on the club with nine Brownlow votes.
Last year’s result: Fifth (105th overall). Second (32nd overall) in 2016.
Notable games: Two prominent games (Round 3 and Round 21) and two notable games (Round 2 and Round 22).
4. Toby McLean – 118 points (93rd overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Ninth.
Last year’s result: Seventh (163rd overall).
Notable games: One prominent game, in Round 3, and two notable games, in Round 7-8.
5. Josh Dunkley – 115 points (97th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Fifth. Fourth in Brownlow votes with four.
Last year’s result: 30th
Notable games: One prominent game (Round 22) and two notable games (in Round 15 and Round 20).
6. Jason Johannisen – 114 points (98th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Sixth. Received three Brownlow votes, good for fifth on the team.
Last year’s result: Third (65th overall); fourth (68th overall) in 2016.
Notable games: One dominant game (Round 20).
7. Luke Dahlhaus – 75 points (183rd overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten
Last year’s result: Fourth (95th overall); fifth in 2016 (69th overall).
Notable games: One notable game, in Round 15.
8. Matt Suckling – 64 points (201st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in top ten.
Last year’s result: 13th
Notable games: One notable game (Round 4).
9. Caleb Daniel – 60 points (208th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Sixth.
Last year’s result: Eighth (164th overall).
Notable games: One notable game, in Round 21.
Tom Liberatore and Caleb Daniel of the Bulldogs celebrate. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
10. Hayden Crozier – 57 points (223rd overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Eighth.
Last year’s result: 16th.
Notable games: One notable game, in Round 14.
The Bulldogs had six top 100 players and seven top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings. Averages would be 5½ and 11, respectively.
Honourable mentions
Billy Gowers – 53 points (11th place) – One notable game, in Round 14.
Aaron Naughton – 43 points (equal 12th place) – Fourth in Best & Fairest voting.
Bailey Williams – 43 points (equal 12th place) – Tenth in Best & Fairest voting; also, one notable game (Round 3).
Player movement during the trade period
In: Taylor Duryea (from Hawthorn), Sam Lloyd (from Richmond).
Gone: Marcus Adams, Luke Dalhaus, Jordan Roughead. If this is a wash, Dog fans will be happy.
Current list of draft picks: 7, 27, 32, 45, 63, 75, 82.
2019 list highlights
Backs: Zaine Cordy, Hayden Crozier, Brad Lynch, Dale Morris, Aaron Naughton, Bailey Williams, Easton Wood, Lewis Young.
Midfielders: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Mitch Honeychurch, Lachie Hunter, Jason Johannisen, Lin Jong, Tom Libertore, Patrick Lipinski, Jack Macrae, Matt Suckling, Mitch Wallis.
Rucks: Tim English.
Forwards: Tom Boyd, Bailey Dale, Caleb Daniel, Tory Dickson, Billy Gowers, Toby McLean, Liam Picken, Ed Richards, Josh Schache, Jackson Trengove.
Forecast for 2019
In 2016, the favourite phrase in the footy community was that the Bulldogs were everyone’s second-favourite team, meaning they were lovable and you’d probably root for them from a soft spot in your heart as long as they weren’t playing against your club that week.
If you weren’t a Sydney fan, you were probably happy to have them win that last Saturday in September, right?
So it would be nice if we could tell you that the Doggies would be the next in the leap-frog procession of 13th place teams, and they’ll follow in the footsteps of Richmond and Collingwood to make the Grand Final in 2019.
Sorry. Can’t do it.
We see them struggling to move up the ladder – who will they pass? Fremantle made more progress than they did during the trade period. The top twelve teams in 2018 were quite a way above the Dogs last year, and there isn’t much reason to suggest Footscray leapt over that chasm since we last saw them take the field.
So we’re slotting them behind those top twelve and Fremantle, and predicting a 14th place finish for the Western Bulldogs in 2019.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Speaking of the dogs, just checking out the financial report for 2018, and we are in rude financial health. Operating net profit of $2.2 mill, 4th consecutive profit, debt free and nearly $8 mill in cash reserves, with net assets of $45 million!! To make a profit in a premiership year is one thing, but to make one when we finished 13th, two years after that success, a big profit at that, is pretty amazing. Quietly, quietly, this club is now, at a minimum, a middle power, and rising.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I'm thinking anywhere from 7-11th depending on injuries and close game results...
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I'm not going to be upset if it transpires that way. The numbers indicate we are still a very young side.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Peter, if Libber returns to his best, you might find we swap spots with the Pies - and go one better!
Tazzie
Guest
Very happy with the direction of the clubs on field restructure after a surprise 2016 GF victory, it is clear that the club is building for near future success and not going down the path of short term gain. The young talent that is emerging only requires more game time experience to reach its genuine potential. The big if, is the return to form of Boyd, Libber, JJ and the further improvement of Schache, drafted and recruited well this draft, the future looks really good over the next 2 seasons.
IAP
Guest
I'm a bit more bullish than you Teddy. We were smashed by injury last year, and forced to play players who weren't ready. With a little more luck, plus the addition of Smith and West (they'll both play round 1, Smith will play all year), we're going to have a seriously good midfield. Cavarra and Lloyd will add the spark in the forward line that we need, and we're going to look like a completely different side. I'm crossing my fingers that Lewis Young comes on - he's the piece missing from our backline. We will be fast and slick next year, and will win between 10 and 14 games.
IAP
Guest
I'm hoping they'll find a way to squeeze some games into Jordan Sweet. He looks like a handy pick up; very good tap ruckman, good height, good weight.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Can Libber lift himself to the standard of inside supplier Tom Mitchell though is the question? If he does that, Dogs on the way to challenging for bottom half of the eight.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I remember about half way through our premiership season, watching Libba over two or three games, and marvelling at how clean his hands were in heavy traffic - and lightning quick! grabbing and handballing before you even knew the ball was in there somewhere - leader of the handball club
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I think Libber is more than just a good player - he brings an infectious, confidence-boosting competitive spirit and edge to the side on field and is apparently a quirky, charismatic leader of sorts in the locker rooms. We need him. And now we have young West who can be groomed to support him in his extraction role. Hopefully Bont wont have to carry a hip complaint all season and Wood & Morris can have injury-free years, along with Libba, Boyd and Picken. Because that is six hard bodies that lead by example.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I liked Adams a lot, but he did miss stacks of footy through injury the last two seasons. It's easy to forget how good Libba is at his best, he is the chief extractor in the league when he's up and running.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Agree. Hopefully Boyd and English improve massively and carry the ruck, and Schache / Boyd provide a constant threat up forward. I'm not convinced Picken will be back but Libber is a massive "in" - hes our version of Joel Selwood. Adams was a big loss because we look under-sized without him. We have a lot of young talent on our list that should improve further; but what we need most of all is a good run with injury - if we can be as durable and fortunate as Richmond and Geelong were this year, there's no reason why we couldn't make jump to top four in 2019. Woof woof!
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Looking at the top five players, they all still have massive upside, all of them are still quite young, so too is Caleb Daniel, who had a relatively poor season compared to the previous two seasons, and JJ can definitely lift. It was Aaron Naughton's first season having been drafted as an 18 year old last year, so he has stacks of upside. Libba and Liam Picken missed the whole of last season and return in 2019, and it must just about be time for Tom Boyd to have a full season of footy. Ruck stocks look thin, so we really need English to step up next season. Overall, the list is still quite young, so the predicted finish of 14 doesn't surprise me, but expect a few upsets along the way.