So it’s official. In losing a ninth game from 13 Tests in 2018, the Wallabies have now posted their worst season ever.
Only twice in history have the Wallabies lost nine Tests in a season, and this current squad is responsible for both of them, in 2016 and 2018.
Among the Wallabies’ five worst seasons in the history of the game also sit the eight losses recorded in 2005, and again in 2013; Eddie Jones was moved on in 2005 and Robbie Deans didn’t see out 2013.
There are no signs that’s about to happen to Michael Cheika, though the discontent is unquestionably gaining volume.
However, such is the timeframe now – Australia won’t play another Test until next July – that installing a new coaching team so close to next year’s Rugby World Cup would almost certainly write off any chances of tournament success in Japan next September and October. And therein lies the conundrum for Rugby Australia.
What can it least afford – to do something, or to do nothing?
Whatever the answer to that question, it’s clear that the methods employed in 2018 have delivered nothing. The Wallabies are effectively in the same place they were at the end of the hapless 2016 season, which in turn seemed so far removed from the highs of the 2015 RWC Final.
Right now, the only straw available for Wallabies fans to clutch is that after the lows of 2016, the Wallabies played some surprisingly good rugby in 2017, and indeed, showed that it could combine a strong set piece and forwards-led game with sharp attack.
After limping along, scoring 2.6 tries per game in 2016, the Wallabies found a new attacking mindset in 2017, where they scored 59 tries in 14 Tests at 4.2 tries per game.
Like the 2015 RWC Final, this similarly feels like a long time ago, with the Wallabies forgetting all that this season to round out the year scoring just 2.3 tries per game in crossing the stripe just 30 times in 13 Tests.
The loss to England, then, was essentially the perfect summary of the Wallabies’ 2018 season.
A scrum that went backwards from the first whistle was followed by a breakdown presence that lacked all game and no more so than in attack. When the Wallabies did have the ball, there was no evident pattern or shape or even any intent that suggested they knew what they were trying to achieve.
In short, a team that struggled to make the gain line was forced to rely on rare moments of individual brilliance to do anything of note. Parity in the lineout was the only element of the game that the Wallabies did well.
It’s hardly the foundation to take into a RWC year, yet that is exactly the point the Wallabies will be starting from next July. It’s a sobering way to start an international season.
Watching the game on Sunday, and even after the event now, all I can think of is this: where is this Wallabies squad up to right now?
Clearly, Cheika has no intention of standing down and equally, Rugby Australia are showing no signs of moving on him on before the RWC anyway.
Cheika was asked to present plans for the Wallabies to the RA board after the completion of The Rugby Championship and before the Spring Tour, and whatever he presented was enough to convince them that his plans for the team would produce better results before the year was out.
But losses to Wales and England have proved that the team is no further advanced than at the completion of TRC, which in turn showed no progress through the southern hemisphere tournament, and which in all honesty took backwards steps from the Ireland series in June.
There was much discussion at the time for a ‘Director of Rugby’ type of appointment to work in conjunction with Cheika and his assistants, but Cheika was able to resist this idea.
I’m not sure he’ll be able to resist it any longer. If Cheika is indeed delivering the right messages to the team, it’s very debateable that they’re being comprehended. If the same voices aren’t getting through, then a different voice is surely needed.
And a different voice is surely needed around the selection table, after Cheika’s final team selection – even if somewhat forced by disciplinary issues – produced the most puzzling of all the puzzling selections in 2018. Such has been the inconsistency and general bewilderment around selections this year, that no-one really knows what the best side comprises now. That’s hardly the position you want, ten months out from a RWC tournament.
And what of the players? Where are they currently?
A couple of players – senior players at that – choosing to ignore the team’s own standards on tour isn’t a great sign. Neither is news of that decision making its way to the leadership group.
The leadership group then sitting on said news until after the easiest game on tour before taking it to the coach so that action be taken looks even worse. Who trusts who now?
But maybe the biggest question is around the way forward from here?
The Wallabies themselves set the goal of three Spring Tour wins, and tripped up at the first hurdle in Cardiff.
Michael Cheika and his team are under fire again. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
So from this point in the RWC cycle right now, what does success in Japan now look like? Is it still making the Final? Is it making the Semis? Is it just getting past Wales and French giant-killers Fiji in Pool D?
Even with Joe Schmidt announcing overnight his intention to step down as Ireland coach after the Cup, I’ll be stunned if Michael Cheika is removed as Wallabies coach at the Rugby Australian board meeting next month.
But gee, I’d be intrigued to hear how on earth he plans on getting the side out of this deepest and darkest of holes before next September.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Actually, it happens a lot in USA sports.
mouse
Roar Rookie
The biggest flaw in our professional game is the ridiculous amateur penalty of suspending a player for disciplinary actions on breaching codes of conduct?? we are not back in the park playing amateur rugby...these are highly trained highly paid investments to represent OUR country ...our country didn't break any rules codes of conducts?? why do we risk that to punish a individuals like schoolboys and jeopardise a victory over other nations?? could you imagine the NFL pulling out there star Quarterback from the Superbowl for coming home late? or girl staying to 12?? the coach would face court action if he survived the countless attempts on his life...under no circumstances should a player be dropped for indiscretions they are "owned" by Australian rugby who invested big money and time on these players! That's why we have "FINES" fines hurt and punish individuals not teams and fine them HARD.. play hard and pay hard....!
Roger
Guest
So Cheikas team really played against England B and still couldn't win.Figures.
mouse
Roar Rookie
Its not a write off to change now, what is it we have to write off?? its a new beginning at the right time (almost the same timing as Chieka had) you need to weigh up which scenario is worse to live with....HOPING and Hoping things will miraculously change then bowing out in the pools (we aren't getting past England in the QF) or putting in new staff and look forward to the future regardless of our results. I'm going with a change after Dec 8th. rebuild, new hope, we have nothing to lose, best to go with some wind in ya sails than just floundering around like now, change it.
P2R2
Roar Rookie
too much HOPE in your comments....Fiji will be the undoing of the WBS...
PiratesRugby
Guest
Without Genia or Pocock, the Wallabies are hopeless. But without Cheika, Hooper, Foley and Beale, the team would probably improve.
Chris
Roar Rookie
This is a bad loss for Australia considering England were missing a whole bunch of first teamers through injury and some not selected, Billy and Marko Vunipola, Chris Robshaw, Anthony Watson, Jonathan Joseph, Sam Simmonds, Launchbury, Genge, Mullan, Obano, Cowan Dickie then you have players like Cole, Brown, Roko Ndungani, Iseikwe, Ciprianni whom many think should be selected including Goode, Morgan and soon to qualify Michael Rhodes. You add all these players to the current squad that played then you will have an almighty starting 15 and bench that can beat any team in the world. So my starting 15 for the world cup will be Marko Vunipola, George, Sinckler, Itoje, Launchbury, Lawes, Underhill, Billy Vunipola, Youngs, Farrell, May, Slade, Tuilagi, Ashton, Daly then bench would be Care, Ford, Cokanasiga, Nowell, Watson, Hartley, Hughes, Wilson and Shields. The Forward is heavy and can all carry over the gainline then the backs are very dynamic skilful with lots of pace. There are some tough calls I made on leaving out these players from the 23 and these are leaving out a fully fit Sam Simmonds, Robshaw, Tom Curry, And a fully fit Obano who carries massively over the gainline but has limited international experience may be a tough call, then Harry Williams, Mike Brown is also a tough call Perhaps the most controversial call is leaving out Teo beacuse for me Tuilagi is much better in that position.
Akari
Roar Rookie
For a start and based on his super rugby performance, Banks should have been starting or in the 23 in the last 3 tests. I could add a bit more but feel free to read the earlier comments above at your leisure.
Akari
Roar Rookie
I'd like to think that he would, CUW, unless he has moved on and is already looking north
Akari
Roar Rookie
I thought Kane Douglas (age 29, 2.02m & 123kg) played well for French Top 14 side, Bordeaux, on the weekend.
Crash Ball2
Guest
Welcome Avid. For an Australian (or interested international) rugby tragic, you've found home.
JP
Guest
Cheika`s thoughts. his selection logic, re Thor. " mmm Tupou. Yeah he did have a great game against Italy, but because he is young and his consistency is an issue, i probably should pre-empt his inconsistency because i`m the head coach and he is due for an inconsistent game, i better drop him for the England game because i'm going on his past inconsistencies prior to the Italy game that he may be inconsistent again "
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Brett, thank you for the good analysis. The point I disagree with is the same most commenters have highlighted. I think that not sacking Cheika has the same loosing effect as sacking him. I was a very big Cheika fan. I think he was brilliant in leading the Tahs to the title and to getting the Wallabies to the RWC final. My concern with him is that he tactically is a one trick poney. Once the opposition figures out his game plan, he doesn't have the nous or the flexibility to instill a new one, much less to prepare the team with options they can vary during the game. Look at the Tahs in the year after winning the Super title - base was still there, but the other teams had the Tahs figured. Look at the Wallabies now. Cheika is an excellent motivator (his greatest asset), but once he loses the change room, he doesn't have much else to offer. Unfortunately it's time for him to go. I'm sure he'll find another team he can lead to the heights as he's done before, but it's not going to happen with the Wallabies. I dislike White and Eddie. I would invest in Wessels. He's still green, but I don't think next year will be a great year for us no matter what, and perhaps he pulls a rabbitt out of the hat. Put him on an 11 month contract, as some have suggested, with an option for four more years. Set reasonable KPIs (next year won't be great). I think another problem we have is with Hooper as captain. Contrary to some, he's a starter for me in any team, one of the best players all around and I see the combination of him with Pockock as good, as long as we have a mongrel as blindside. But he's not a great captain, neither for the Tahs or the Wallabies. Too many poor decisions, leads by example but others don't seem to follow, I don't see the tactical leadership skills in him. At times he needed to change how the team was playing, could not pull it off. He can be part of the leadership group, but we need someone with a better understanding of the game to lead. In terms of selection, I disagree with what some commentators are posting. I think that under any coach, the 40 would be roughly the same. Agree that Cheika insists in some players out of loyalty (Phipps is past his best, burned Hanningan by including him too soon, etc), but I think that name by name most of the group is the best we can field. Some of the long lists published are a mix of has-beens, raw young talent, neer do gooders. I would take some out of the 40 and add a few, but the real problem is direction off the field and leadership in the field.
mick
Guest
That's quite a list!
Doug
Guest
Why wouldn`t Digby play good rugger ? He is younger the AAC.
Jamie
Guest
Depends who has room for JOC .You can sign for a super club for 2020 and still be eligible for 2019 RWC. If i`m really honest though on current trends over the last 4 years, JOC would be a 50/50 chance of being selected in Michael Cheikas Wallabies. The only way he probably could selected is if he played ok to good and was in the Waratahs 15 for 2019 or 2020. If i was his manager and he really wanted to make the RWC squad , i`d tell him to go to Australia and play Super Rugby ( preferably Waratahs), go for it young man, but would also warn him to not get upset if Michael Cheika ignores you.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Was the 2017 season that great? At the time, Fiji, Italy, Argentina and South Africa weren't as strong as they are now. A narrow win against New Zealand's 2nd string team is a false economy. About the only positive was the win against Wales, and based on their recent performances, I don't think they were at their best either.
Zado
Guest
Ahhhh yes Richard Hardwick. Another great talent given absolutely no game time and thus having to leave as a certain average number 7 is locked in forever.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Can the new-look Skelton Jump? The old one couldn't. If he can, we should welcome him back.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Great Post, Add Jake Gordon to the list too. His start in a friendly against Italy doesn't really count. In my opinion, Genia aside, he was the best performing halfback of the SR season.