With the 2019 Super Rugby season fast approaching, let’s take a look at the remainder of the competition – the New Zealand and South Africa conferences.
You can read the first part of my preview, looking at the Australian conference, here.
South African conference
Team to watch: Jaguares
Team to ignore: Bulls
Jaguares
The Jaguares qualified for their first-ever finals series in 2018 and things seem to be on the up for a club that has only three years under its belt.
The Argentines lose 50-test veteran Lenardo Senatore, while flyhalves Nicolas Sanchez and Juan Martin Hernandez head to Stade Francais and retire respectively. There’s also a change in the coaching department, with Mario Ledesma taking the reins at the national level so former France assistant Gonzalo Quesada can slide into the role.
A 5-3 record at home doesn’t flatter the team, which should have the biggest fortress in the competition in terms of travel, but to their credit the Argentines beat all four of their South African rivals at home, levering them into second in the conference.
The stat that would give fans the most hope is their four-game winning streak on both sides of the Tasman, knocking over the Rebels, Brumbies, Blues and Chiefs within three weeks.
Traditionally Argentina teams are scrummaging powerhouses, so a competition-low 85 per cent winning rate in 2018 will come as a concern.
(Gabriel Rossi/Getty Images)
Bulls
On paper the Bulls’ three titles might make them a very successful Super Rugby team, but since their 2013 second-place finish they’ve come ninth three times and fell to 15th in 2017 and 12th last year.
An edgy 21-19 upset over an out-of-sorts Hurricanes in Round 1 was their only claim to fame in 2018, a year that included a loss to the Sunwolves and thrashings by the Jaguares and Lions.
Since last season they’ve lost hooker Adriaan Strauss’s 66 tests of experience, not to mention losing head coach John Mitchell.
A successful 2019 isn’t off the cards for the Bulls, but finishing the year with a winning record under a new coach who will be under pressure from the get-go is unlikely at best.
New Zealand Conference
Team to watch: Hurricanes, Highlanders, Crusaders, Chiefs
Team to ignore: Blues
Hurricanes, Highlanders, Crusaders, Chiefs
In each of the last three years these four teams have qualified for the finals. It hasn’t been since 2015, before SANZAAR opted an 18-team format and when just six play-off positions were used, that the throng of clubs didn’t all qualify thanks to the Crusaders finishing a close seventh.
The Hurricanes clinched their first-ever trophy in 2016, the Crusaders added to their cabinet with back-to-back titles in 2017 and 2018 and the Chiefs won through to the semi-finals on two occasions, just missing out in 2018.
Let’s not forget our neighbours from the south. While their success has been a bit limited – as far as limited goes for New Zealand teams – with just one semi-finals appearance since their 2015 grand final win, they were very close to knocking over a Waratahs unit in Sydney in July.
The Landers’ biggest struggle will likely be the No.10 jersey, vacated by Lima Sopoaga. Fletcher Smith and his ten caps head north to the Canes, meaning one of Bryn Gatland, Marty Banks or Josh Ioane will have to step up.
(Kerry Marshall/Getty Images)
Blues
Ah, the Blues. The poor cousins of the remaining New Zealand teams, leaving loyal fans to fantasise over Auckland’s success, Sonny Bill Williams’s short move south from the Chiefs a couple of years ago and Ma’a Nonu’s extremely southward move from Toulon.
In 2018 they were the only New Zealand team to lose to an Aussie team at home, losing to the Rebels in June, and were ranked second-last, finishing above only the Sunwolves.
A backline that boasts Rieko Ioane is the shining light in an otherwise struggling franchise, and while reaching the finals for the first time since 2011 is never impossible, Blues fans won’t be holding their breath.
Force Westerner
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't ignore The Blues. Graham Henry is mentoring the coach, so watch for some surprise elements there. Plus, watch out for Ma'a Nonu. Never know. He may get his spot back in to the All Black's!
Danny McGowan
Roar Rookie
I agree Alec, Blues this year may have something they have been missing, a 10 in Otere Black, plus a pretty handy loose forward set up (especially if Glamour boy Akira remembers what his job is), I can see them sneaking aheaf of the Clan this year.
Ex force fan
Guest
The history of this game shown that team seldom improve and that star player seldom produce the dividend expected. However a change at coaching level is more significant. Unfortunately I agree with Tom, the Bulls will not be a factor in 2019 however may be building towards a better 2020
Sean
Guest
Way off the mark on the Bulls. They're very much a team to watch this year. May have lost Strauss but that's more than offset by Duane Vermeulen's arrival. Schalk Brits back in SA too with all his experience. Throw in Lood de Jager, RG Snyman, Handre Pollard, Jesse Kriel, Warick Gelant... plenty of very high class players. On paper they are contenders.
Luke Brodie
Roar Rookie
I would say your SA conference predictions are back to front. The Bulls have recruited very well in the off-season (Duane Vermeulen, Schalk Brits) while loosing very little. This extra star power in the forwards will mirror the supreme star power in the backs. I'd expect to see Warran Gelant hit his best form months out from a World Cup. The Stormers are equally looking dangerous and will start the year with fewer injuries as the last. Expect a fit Cobus Wiese to have a strong impact. The Lions will be slightly weaker than previous years while the Jaguares will struggle to repeat last years results with a weaker pack and a stronger conference.
Wal
Roar Guru
Their problem has never been playing foreign teams, last year was their worst with a 4 and 4 record against non NZ teams, the previous 2 years were 7 and 1 and 7 and 2. A record of 18 wins and 7 losses against foreign teams would have any other conference more than happy.
CUW
Roar Rookie
NZ will be a hard one to crack in a world cup year so many will be wrapped in cotton wool already Crusaders will lose Sam Read and Codie on mandatory rest. during the season both Crotty and Goodhue will be rested. many other regular all blacks will be rested a lot - so someone like Aaron Smith will have a big impact not being on the park.
Alec Mudie
Roar Rookie
Not a Blues fan but!!!! Write them off at your peril...
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Nice summary Tom although I think the disruptions to the Jaguars will hit them harder than what you've outlined and I'm not expecting them to do as well this year as they did in 2018. I'd also suggest that with Mitchel moving on the Bulls are likely to improve rather than go back. I also think that the Blues will improve this year but in the NZ conference this won't make much of a difference as the other teams are so strong anyway. For me the interesting thing this year is how the individual teams manage their national players. I think that this could be a deciding factor in a few of the games and could level the playing field a bit. Going to be good to see.
Kiwikrs
Roar Rookie
SBW moved NORTH from the Chiefs
Andres
Guest
Jaguares lost ley playmaker Nicolas Sanchez and can't seem to be able to produce a decent front row. I think they'll look more like their 2016 rather than their 2018 version.
Gavin
Guest
You are a bit harsh on the Blues considering the conference they are in. Don't forget that in 2017 they scored enough points to top the Australian conference but instead finished bottom of the New Zealand conference.