Is Antonio Brown on his way out?

Can't believe that one of my guesses was correct, and costing only a 3rd & 5th round pick, the Raiders get to keep their picks at 4, 24 & 27. I still think the Raiders might try trade deals, as after their the 1st round and a high second round, their only other picks are in the 4th, towards the end of the 6th and a couple in the 7th.

The other question not really being asked is: “do the Steelers have a front office issue?” For as long as I can remember the Steelers were a team renowned for looking after theirs, but Bell and now Brown... I do wonder how these wounds weren’t cauterised in house, the Steelers of my youth would never have had this happen. Don’t forget Big Ben has played a pretty big part in this also. He’s definitely worth a late first rounder. He’s probably the best active receiver and the position is stereotyped as Prima Donna.

Well, they do gain by cutting him - whether you make the 'addition by subtraction' argument I've seen around a little (I won't though), or just the fact that you open up just under $39m in cap space over the following 2 years. But that's neither here nor there - if they trade him, the primary motivation is that they want him out.. the return on him (either direct - in terms of picks - or indirect - such as future cap benefits) is simply a silver lining. The premium argument I get - but I'd say that the 2nd + something return IS the premium, given the sheer depth of the incident list he comes with. After all, Gordon only got a 5th because he was salary controlled on rookie pay scales beyond this year (the advanced warning RE release thing is irrelevent, given that the Browns specifically did that in order to invite offers for him from all interested so as to get the best offer). At the end of the day, it only takes one team to think they can deal with him, so I guess it could happen. But I don't think it likely. In answer to your question... depends on the organization and what you have around them in terms of players and coaches, but probably Cooper. Both are very good players - AB is better, but also 6 years older and brings so much rubbish along with him.

There would be a couple of teams who have need of a big name receiver and may have the trade capital and salary cap to take AB: SF and the Raiders. SF have need of a #1 receiver for Garrapolo, considering Garcon seems injury prone and Pettis is still young. I doubt they'd want to give up the #2 pick for AB, though. The Raiders have 3 first round picks, and a huge salary cap margin. They'd probably like a stud WR to replace Cooper, and have a history of problem child players (both turning them round and making them worse!)

If they are trading AB, it is because they think he will continue to disrupt the team harmony and he can't be fixed. So if that is the case, and you back your coaching and admin to be in order, then why wouldn't you think he will do that at where ever he lands? So by the logic that the Pats, aren't a threat, send him there and have him implode their program. The more obvious reason he won't go to the Pats is the Pats have very little room under the cap (depending on whether Gronk wants to come back (maybe he will be a linemen?!) and their $5million kicker is off contract. The Pats do have a small stockpile of picks in the first three rounds, but they may need to move those around. They need a development QB next year, no doubt about it.

We’ll i’ve certainly been told! You clearly know more than me, OoB. Enjoy the rest of the playoffs.

Losing Shazier when they did killed their SB hopes last year. He was the heart and soul of their defence. It's a lot of talent for an organisation to bleed, but in Conner and Smith-Schuster they have done an amazing job at re-loading.

Well with his contract the way it is, Pittsburgh gain nothing by cutting him. It is within their rights to tell him not to come to training, and have him on the inactive list each week for the year before he is cut at the end of the season. Frankly if Josh Gordon can command a 5th round pick even with advance warning that he will be released, AB will still fetch a premium. There are teams out there who will think they can control him and his talent is unmatched. If you were an NFL GM and there was a re-draft of every player today, who would you take first: AB or Amari Cooper?

This is great and all... but the talent of the player is the only reason he isn't being outright cut (and frankly, the only reason this has been allowed to go on so far, and get so bad). OBJ isn't even comparable RE issues... which just goes to show how absolutely insane AB's last year worth of issues has been (the list is something like 20 incidents deep...). If the Steelers trade him, it will be because they want him out, not because of the compensation offered. That will factor into the price offered by other teams.

Yet if the Steelers want to make it to the SB, there is a very good chance they will have to beat the Patriots at some point - both being in the AFC. Just because they haven't always made it that far doesn't change that. And in the time period you mentioned (immediately after they played their playoff match in 2005), the Steelers are 3-8 in the head to head. They don't want to help the Pats solve their one major problem. There is no chance they trade AB to the Pats, mate. I doubt they'll trade within the AFC, as already stated, but if they do it won't be to a AFCN team or a big contender elsewhere in the AFC - it's not some weird 'thought process' mental weakness thing... it's just smart. Limit your exposure to high level players on the other team as much as possible. The Pats did it themselves recently.

I think BB sent Garoppolo to San Fran for less than what he could have got from Cleveland to ensure he got him out of the AFC. I don't think Pittsburgh would want the thought of Brady and a pissed off AB in the way of any potential AFC championship every year.

The $20+m Pittsburgh are swallowing factors into the draft compensation, both from a Steelers view (why move him for a third-rounder, he's way better than that) and another team (elite talent for 3 years under contract with no guaranteed money owed). FWIW speculation last year about an OBJ trade was starting at a first and another high-round pick, and he was due a massive extension that would put $60m+ in a cap dent in a team. Put it to you this way, if Pittsburgh had paid way more guaranteed money and his cap hits were now $3m a year for 3 years, I would argue that's now worth way more than a first-rounder. Conversely, I think someone like Joe Flacco who has 3 years of $25m+ left will struggle to get any trade interest not because he isn't any good, but because his contract is horrific and nobody will trade for it.

Maybe a decade or more ago...I could be wrong but I think the Pats and Steelers have only met once in the playoffs since 2005. I think the Steelers will be happy to trade AB to wherever they think they’ll get the best deal (traded players, draft picks, etc). It’s unlikely to be the AFC North, but other than there, the NFL is business and you need to be a bit more strategic with these things than to have a ‘we don’t want to possibly have to play you at some stage in the next two years, and espically not in a playoff game’ mentality. If that’s the thought process, they’ve already lost!

Not sure if anyone is giving up a 1st for a problem child so bad the Steelers are willing to swallow over $20m in dead cap. I mean, crazier things have happened... but not many. Seriously - there's a list going around of the stuff he's done that is stupidly long - and it only cover the last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone give up a 2nd and a day 3 pick for him... or for this to drag on for another year.

Because the Pats are, and have been, the biggest obstacle between the Steelers and additional Superb Owl appearances. I doubt they want AB in the AFC, fullstop.

Why is that? They’re not in the same division. Can’t imagine why they’d be less likely to trade to the Pats than any other AFC team.

There are two questions every team will ask if they are in the market for someone: 1) Is he better than what we currently have? That answer will be yes for 31 teams. 2) Can we afford it? AB will have all of his guaranteed money on Pittsburgh's books, leaving him with non-guaranteed cap hits of roughly $12m/season for the next 3 years. Almost every team will be able to get around that e.g. turn his $12m base for 2019 into signing bonus that gives hits of 4/16/16 rather than 12/12/12. AB won't mind as he gets the money up-front, and it makes him harder to cut the following year. Now as you correctly allude to, two big sticking points are going to be draft compensation, and locker room culture. As for the first - I expect conversations will start at a first round pick. Brown is a top-3 WR without debate. 6 x 100-catch seasons and has only just turned 30. Will still be good for at least 3 years barring injury. The more pertinent question is whether you can tolerate his headache. Will Sam Darnold be able to deal with AB in his ear all game asking for targets? Ditto Josh Allen? Would AB start sulking if A-Rod tells him to get stuffed? Can you trust him after the Facebook Live saga of 2016? If a team thinks he's worth the risk, they should make a bid. But caveat emptor. If Pittsburgh are serious about moving him and eating $21m in cap this year, they will have absolutely no shortage of takers with attractive offers. But AB is the bluest of blue-chip talents. They don't grow on trees.

Hell will freeze, thaw, and re-freeze again before Pittsburgh trade AB to the Pats.

If he’s on the way out of Pittsburgh, there’s two likely landing spots in the AFC East - New England and the NY Jets. Both will be desperate for A stud WR in 2019.

Losing Shazier, Bell and Brown. Ouch.