None of the pools are picnics. To emerge from Pool A, the two Celtic favourites will need to navigate beefy Slavs, riproaring Samoans and avatars of the fired-up home nation, who have already proven they can shock a heavyweight on the global stage. But emerge they will.
Pool B doesn’t have the depth of the others, but the opening match might very well set the course for the knockout rounds because a New Zealand vs Ireland quarter-final sounds so much different than an All Black match against the Scots.
Pool C is a horror show. Tonga will dent the French, the Yanks will bruise France and the top three may very well all drop a match against each other. Nobody will want to tip France over Argentina or the Pumas over the French, at least at the moment.
Wales looks to have the heavy armour to take Pool D, with Australia projected to qualify in almost every pundit’s bracket, but does anyone really fancy a one-off tilt against Fiji or a scrum fest with Georgia?
But let’s assume a few things. Injuries will happen to every squad and depth will be king. Midfielders are the least settled combinations in all the teams. An experienced and nasty pack will not be enough but will be required. The games will be played on fast pitches. Referees will make five or six errors per match.
Now imagine: Who will be the starting No.12s in the knockout Round of 8?
Australia will overcome an early loss to Fiji and play in the first quarter-final against Michael Cheika’s nemesis and his sweet chariot. The clash of midfielders will be the mighty Aphrodite, Owen Farrell, versus the misunderstood James ‘Dean’ O’Connor. England will win that with a controversial late decision involving these two fine rugby players and their tackle techniques.
Scotland’s Pete Horne will wear the No.12. He is visually unremarkable, neither an imposing figure nor especially fast-looking. He does a lot of things kind of well and he avoids many mistakes as he runs lines, feeds Huw Jones and occasionally puts in a little kick. He did well against South Africa’s incumbent No.12, Damian de Allende, but seemed to struggle a bit when South Africa attacked in an unstructured way. If he faces the All Blacks, he will be tackling the bigger Sonny Bill Williams or berserker Ma’a Nonu or perhaps steamroller Ngani Laumape.
But I say it is Boks versus Jocks (with Jockboks) in the second quarter-final because the All Blacks will be upset in the first pool match. Rassie Erasmus has signaled he still sees Montpellier’s Jan Serfontein as viable and finishes many games with Handre Pollard at No.12, but to start, we are stuck with de Allende. The building Boks will play a mouthwatering semi-final against England in Yokohama.
In the third quarter-final, at Oita Stadium, it’ll be Geoff Parkes’s distant cousin Hadleigh, who plays a variant of Jamie Warren-ball, running into the skilled Jeronimo de la Fuente. On paper the No.3 should have an easy time of disposing of the No.10, but the Pumas will lift for the tournament, dispatch France in the pool and give Wales all they want – until the superior organisation of the Dragons pays off.
In the final quarter-final poor Ireland will run into a vengeance-minded Kiwi team, and it won’t even be close. Part of that will be the identity of the inside centres. Laumape is a wrecking ball and durable at that, while the Irish-Kiwi centre Bundee Aki is not either of those things. The All Blacks by 15 or more.
And so a north-south set of semi-finals in Yokohama, with Farrell finally being carded for his armlessness in a late tackle on Pollard – playing at No.12 in the second half – and Parkes missing a lot of Laumape tackles, setting up a Springboks vs All Black final for the ages, which comes down to the last sequence, as it has in the last three tests between the old foes.
Any of that sound plausible?
taylorman
Roar Guru
Opz posted out of time.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Harry, an excellent entertaining piece, full of sound and fury, (but ultimately with respect), signifying nothing. Your crystal ball is technicolour, for sure, but who is the focus puller? And who is casting this melodrama? God knows but she’s not telling. It is fun to imagine though. Try as I might I cannot imagine an ideal 12 for my team. I’m too busy imagining mere competence in several other positions, starting with the selector himself. Ireland have depth I believe. As do England and SA. But no one has access to depth quite like NZ. I believe Ireland with Schmidt are the closest in depth culture, cast and costume. Not to mention hair and make up.
Tim magner
Guest
Interesting your thoughts on Ireland's depth in those position versus the three countries named. At tighthead prop Ireland have furlong, porter, Ryan & bealham....England have Cole & sinckler. Munster with Ireland's 3rd choice props destroyed exeters scrum over the weekend, all 4 Exeter props are in the reckoning for England. At centre Ireland have ringrose, henshaw, aki, Farrell & Addison....a far superior group to what both England & SA have currently. In the 2nd row Ireland have Ryan, toner, Henderson & beirne.....bar itoje ( and I think Ryan is better than him) that's a better group than England have, better than SA. Nz have retallick, whitelock & Barrett, have they more depth than this?
taylorman
Roar Guru
Well if youre winning 80-90% of your tests in the period since 87 its reasonable to expect you to win 80-90% of the wcups but such is the impact of the one crucial match the numbers dont stack up. ABs to get three in a row at some point since 87 is probably more likely than not.
Higgik
Guest
As an England fan, I would like EJ to try Devoto at 12, big enough to punch holes with a good offloa. Manu just hasn’t got the offloading skills needed. My ideal back line would be 9 Spencer 10 Farrell 11 big Joe 12 Devoto 13 Slade 14 May 15 Goode
taylorman
Roar Guru
Splitting hairs a bit there. 12 starts vs 10 tests of which five were starts is ‘nowhere near as experienced as Aki’. Looks similar to me.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Hunt will most likely start at 12 for the WB's with Kerevi at 13 or vice versa. JO'C will also be in the squad as backup to both. Rumours are circulating of a comeback for the Honey Badger. (nah just kidding)
taylorman
Roar Guru
Is beating France meant to be hard or something. Funny, thought that was an oldie.
taylorman
Roar Guru
I think we’ll get the usual ABs and southern teams are beatable reporting as we have been until as usual once the northern press see a few cold doldrum 6N matches where everyones protecting themselves from Wcup injury issues and compare them to the Super rugby start at the same time, where players will be jumping out of their skins to impress this year. Theyll all cry what on earth had they been thinking. ????
taylorman
Roar Guru
World cup time, you of all fans should know that difference. 6 nation champs to Wcup chumps. SAs best in 2018 was as good as Irelands. Dont need ten months for a world cup. Just three or four matches.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Am not sure why my post disappeared so will try again but a lot shorter. Nice article by Harry, some interesting predictions indeed. Rather than JOC (great player but not enough time), I would have Reece Hodge wearing the gold #12 jersey. Hodge played IC on the EOYT2016 and looked pretty darn good to me. Runs hard AND he can tackle, unlike K.Beale who is way too erratic.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Nice article Harry, and to be sure your predictions are one of many possibilities, though the admission to Nic Bishop of the beer stains on the writing paper explains it's jocular nature. :) Strange that you mention JOC and Matt Toomua as these two, along with D.Paia'aua of the Reds, would be the likely play-maker IC for the WB. If you want a brutish beef-eater busting the bedazzled defence then it's S.Kerevi with that #12 on his back. I suspect the non-tackling K.Beale might be on the outer with Rugby Australia. I don't know how much you follow the Oz news media but of late have been a couple of oldish videos (3-4 years) of Beale et al with a mimic of partying and coke snorting (not the cola). However I digress with you for that gold #12 shirt. The bloke I want to see at IC is Reece Hodge. He killed them at IC on the EOYT2016 tour but got punted for the sometimes-brilliant-often-wayward Beale. The myopic WB coaching unit should stop messing Hodge about before he ups and heads to France. On a final note, I saw a late-night televised English Premier game of Sarries vs Glocester (??) and behold! a miraculous apparition of Wayne Barnes sending Owen Farrell to the naughty chair; Farrell argued his tackle "was 'armless, Gov-nor" and the ref agreed. :)
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
that should read ISN'T REFERRING THE GAME..
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
Anything as long as barnes is refereeing the game.. then it will be an equal contest..
Dave
Guest
As a diehard AB fan I have to agree that 3 World Cups in a row is too much to expect. Of course anything can happen. Australia with Chieka could even beat Fiji! Yet I'm mentally prepared that any of 4 teams could win and the ABs probably need as much luck as any of the other 3.
Dave
Guest
"Which part is most implausible? NZ beating Ireland or SA beating NZ?" Australia losing to Fiji yet by some statistical miracle still making it beyond pool play.
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
Im guessing Harry you just arent familiar with Ireland's back up props as there is plenty of depth there. Not convinced at all by Englands starting centres never mind back up players. Im mean Lancaster had to shoehorn in a league player for the last RWC and Teo, a fairly average former Leinster player gets picked with Farrell a converted 10. Tuilagi has played about 5 games since 2013 and hasnt scored since then and Slade and Joseph are hit and miss.
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
They beat France easily at the RWC without Sexton. Madigan started. Starting locks are Ryan(best lock in the world 2018) and Toner (Most capped player under Schmidt) Irelands back up locks are Henderson (Lion) and Beirne (Pro 14 player of year 2017 and consistently Munsters best player of 2018/19) Dillane of Connacht (quality sub). Three high quality players with International caps. Ireland dominated Englands lineout in the 6 nations 2018 in Twickenham. In my view Irelands first choice and sub locks are stronger than Englands. As for South Africa in 2018 they lost 7 matches from 14 and their lineout creaked at times. Guys like Ezebeth are very over rated in my view. Think he would struggle to get selected regularly for Ireland.
Jacko
Guest
Agree Wal...ALB and Goodhue were very good when ALB had to come on to cover Crotty in the Bledisloe games...As you say tho if they are 12 - 13 then a battering ram on the wing...Ioane is good enough and big enough to do that but he tends not to...maybe thats his current instructions
Rhys Bosley
Roar Pro
Nonu's "style of play" was always to do everything all the others could do, but better. If he can keep that up at 37 then power to him, otherwise I think SBW and Laumape are the next picks for what Hanson needs. Crotty is more a defensive organising 13 in the style of Conrad Smith in my opinion, but Goodhue seems to have that jersey tied up.