Essendon have been all the rave this off season in the football world, with many pundits predicting them to make the top four.
At the very least they’re predicted to get back into September action, which they missed last year after a horrible first half of the season.
I think the main reason for this is because the Bombers won seven of their last ten games last year, to narrowly miss the finals.
However, they had an easy draw in the back half of the season. They beat Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and West Coast in those games.
Granted, the West Coast win was fantastic – beating them in Western Australia is incredibly difficult.
Barring that, they only beat one team who made the finals in Sydney, who lost to Gold Coast the week before.
The positions, at the end of the year, of the teams they beat on that run, were: ninth, 17th, 14th, 16th and tenth. Hardly good opposition.
I think the main question is always where a team can improve, and whether they can improve more than the teams above them and around them.
Essendon aren’t, and won’t be, better than any of Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne and West Coast this year.
They simply don’t have the talent or system to do that. Greater Western Sydney have more scope to improve than Essendon, as do Adelaide, who played in a grand final two years ago.
That’s six teams who are more talented than them, and you could easily argue that Geelong’s midfield in Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan and Tim Kelly can see them still play finals football.
Essendon were active again in this year’s trade period, trading in midfielder Dylan Shiel from Greater Western Sydney. Club and supporters alike were excited by that acquisition.
The thing is… he’s not that good. He’s never averaged more than 28 disposals across a year, and never kicked more than fifteen goals.
Essendon’s midfield was a major issue last year, and I can’t see that changing this year.
The core midfield will group will be Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel, David Zaharakis, Devon Smith and Andrew McGrath.
McGrath is unproven, and Shiel and Heppell aren’t great by foot. Tom Bellchambers isn’t even close to the top five ruckmen, so they won’t be getting first use again either.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The defence is still worrying. Hooker and Hurley are both very good defenders, the former is probably top three in the league. However, the lack of depth in that back six is astounding.
Marty Gleeson, Conor McKenna and Adam Saad will come undone against the good teams. Saad and McKenna just don’t have a football brain – yes it’s good to take the game on, but the amount of times they got caught running out of defence last season needs urgent attention.
The forward line is better, however it isn’t fantastic. The fortunes of Joe Daniher could make or break Essendon’s season.
Without him, Shaun McKernan and James Stewart just aren’t going to get it done as the two pillars of the forward line.
Nobody really knows where Daniher is at. Some people are saying he will be fine to play in Round 1, and some are saying he’s struggling to train still.
The small forwards are pretty potent, led by one of the best small forwards in the competition, in Orazio Fantasia.
Jake Stringer and Anthony McDonald–Tipungwuti accompany him to make a good small forward line. But again, they need Daniher there.
The game plan probably needs an overhaul too, if they are going to be a top team. When you look at all of the top teams of the last few years, none of them have had that free-flowing, all-out attack game plan the Bombers do.
Hawthorn relied on precise kicking, moving slow or fast, to win games. Richmond play a somewhat scrappy game, and always win the territory battle which leads to scores, and also an easy transition back into defence. The Western Bulldogs played a similar brand in the year they won their premiership.
A game plan that revolves around attacking and playing on at all costs, will simply not work in the modern game. It’s the exact reason that Essendon conceded such a big amount of goals most weeks last year.
For those people saying that Essendon are a ‘lock’ for the finals – well, they are kidding themselves.
They have major question marks all throughout their team. Starting from their depth in their best 22 (and especially their depth from that 22 – 26 player mark), to whether Joe Daniher will be fit, and whether they have enough improvement in them, to go past seven or eight pretty good teams.
Essendon could make finals – but it’s far from a done deal.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Interesting to re read this article William. Essendon are close to silencing the doubters . Perhaps the overall title was on song with them being no lock the finals still with four games to go but I think the article underestimated the depth at the club. See my opinion piece published overnight on roar
billybob
Guest
Ok, you didn't think he was A grade, but by an objective measure, (All-Australian) he was.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Measurable is the go if you want to define a stat. ('Contested' possessions? 1%ers? Turnovers? Are they stats?) When someone like Neale is excluded, despite stats, AA is not valid as a stat because it is not measurable. Regardless, any argument that Shiel is a significant player needs to be made without the, ' because they (AA selectors) reckon he is.' There are plenty of stats available to argue it...just not AA selection. That is, if you want to argue stats. I don't think stats are always a winning argument. Subjectivity is usually just as powerful. Ours has been a semantic argument.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Firstly, Neale's record-breaking season was 2016, not 2017. Secondly, don't conflate the subjective process of selecting an AA team with the cold, hard fact that a particular player was selected. Brownlow votes are awarded subjectively too, but the number of votes a player has received in a game/season/career is still a measurable statistic.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Can you explain, then, why that same panel did not recognize the even more elite, record breaking season of Lachie Neale? They played the same position but Lachie had better stats and was not 'recognized'. A stat is never subjective. AA selection is.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Shuey is a star and as we found out you keep Yeo quiet Shuey gets off the leash...Gaff would have really added something in the GF too as would a fit Darcy Moore and maybe Lynden Dunn for JK and Scharenberg for Darling.
JamesH
Roar Guru
...In recognition of his elite season, yes.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Yeah...but it's a stat for what a selection panel did, not what he did.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Number of times selected as AA: 1. That’s a stat.
Adam
Guest
Shiel had more of the footy than Neale in 2017. Matt Crouch was the leading possession winner in 2017. It was 2016 that Neale had the most disposals
Brett tatnell
Guest
Some of those top teams like Richmond and gws won’t even be there in finals
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Except he was not as good as Lachie Neale who broke all possession records at an excellent efficiency rate...and was overlooked. Does it make Shiel better than Neale because a handful of old boys and reporters made a blinkered decision over one red too many?
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Being AA is not a stat.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Shiel got picked and Lachie Neale missed. AA selectors miss a heck of a lot.
Phil Maguire
Guest
Lol. Francis doesn't get a mention in your Essendon backline. Nor does Ambrose, the ever reliable Baguley, Mitch Brown or Matt Dea. Add Zaharakis, Parish, Myers, Langford, Guelfi and Laverde, to your midfield group. As for the forwards Daniher is looking good and with Francis taking CHB Hooker will be free to play forward again. At 192 cm Stringer doesn't really qualify as a small forward but he'll play there with short stints in the midfield at bounces. Tipungwuti, Fantasia and Josh Begley will cover that role. For the rucks Zac Clarke is a more than handy back-up to Tommy Bellchambers whom you have seriously under-rated.
EaglesMan
Roar Rookie
Champion data load of rubbish. Pete mate, i agree the pies midfield is the best now with Adams, Beams, Sidebottom, Treloar and Pendelbury. However i am still very happy with Gaff, Sheed, Yeo, Shuey and Redden
Dean
Guest
So when the Bombers get beaten you have various reasons why but when they beat the sides mentioned you were simply too good for them? Can't they have off days, poor disposal, poor decision making or physical games leading up to the contest or does that only happen to Essendon? I think you will make the finals personally but not sure how much damage they will do.
Michael Vella
Guest
Saad was amazing off half back once he settled into his new team.He hardly got run down as he is quite simply just to quick and takes the game on with wise decision making as he sees the green open grass in front of him.With the competition becoming so even all it takes is half a dozen top liners and some really good kids that can play.Essendon are certainly gaining momentum in this area .The recruitment of Ben Rutten as a coach for defence will have a very positive effort in their game plan. Beware this side will shake the tree this year..
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I think a fitter gws , with key players back will be tough away to gws but Essendon can win it . I don't think the first game away to one of the best sides will sum up the season . Teams can be a bit rusty early on in first round or two.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
once again the midfield arguments are not central to main topic at hand....thats a separate issue. Incidentally there was some very poor disposal from essendon on the back of a very physical game week before playing the hawks I was at the game . They just got up and quite frankly the game could have gone either way,. Tom Mitchell was great but didn't make the difference to their win for me , I felt we lost that game with some poor disposals and decisions , part of our development but pretty consistent side by then essendon in the last ten games if you look at our results. I think beating 4 of the top 8 teams was enough to prove we are there. you don't beat West coast away, and GWS away and then steamroll one of the best midfields in geelong unless your midfield is doing something right . very solid and consistent from round 8 besides one bad game agains the reigning premiers richmond. Our results from round 8 were enough to comprehensively account frr the topic at hand of a top 8 finish. Hawthorn had a much easier fixture run in incidentally after playing essendon which could have gone either way (and great coaching) but were pretty lucky to finish where they did , Id say the coaching and strategy got them across the line. your "on the day" argument doesn't hold up if you look at essendon beating gws, sydney, west coast , geelong comfortably and taking callingwood really close . Are you saying those five sides don't have great midfields because we beat them by 5 goals plus taking the foot off the pedal in the last quarter to manage our injuries ...next ..