It seems lots of NRL fans are convinced that a few coaches just aren’t made of the right stuff and won’t be leading their troops to a title this season or in the future.
Surely most of these coaches have bosses who think they can lead them to a title, so who is correct?
Stephen Kearney, New Zealand Warriors
Kearney has a 35 per cent win rate in the NRL but is the only Kiwi coach to defeat Australia five times. He just doesn’t have the roster this year.
Ivan Cleary, Penrith Panthers
He has a 47 per cent win rate in a long NRL career but is perceived as a rebuilding type of coach rather than a title-winner. He has the roster and is a good chance of proving his critics wrong in the next few years. The Panthers seem to be injury-prone, and a healthy year could end up with them holding the trophy.
Nathan Brown, Newcastle Knights
Brown has a 53 per cent win rate with a strong Saints roster and 21 per cent win rate with a weaker Knights outfit. The management of the club must have seen something they like to keep him on despite a collection of wooden spoons. Ponga is the best player in the competition and should lead them to a title with Brown in charge. Surely they must fire this season.
Ricky Stuart, Canberra Raiders
Stuart has a 49 per cent career winning rate. He had a huge start to his career at the Chooks with a title in 2002 but most years since then have been grim. Ricky has a coaching trademark with the Raiders, just like McGregor has his strong mid-season fade-out at the Dragons – the Raiders are well known for blowing matches they have in the bag, and the coach has to wear most of the blame.
Once again the Raiders have a strong team, and while a title isn’t likely, it’s not impossible either. It won’t happen unless they find some top-class halves or at least one certified champion in the halves.
Brad Arthur, Parramatta Eels
Arthur has a 45 per cent NRL career winning rate. The Eels seem pretty light-on for talent and surely aren’t much of a threat this year. It’s a hard club to work out, and both player and coaches seem to enter the vicinity with a spring in their step but emerge a few years later with their career in tatters. For Arthur to win a title from where the club sits now would be a huge achievement, but it’s not very likely.
Have I missed anyone? Am I wrong in my reading of fan opinion? Maybe it’s only a vocal minority who rate these coaches as a bit on the average side.
James Ditchfield
Roar Rookie
I think most critics/pundits are way too quick to write off NRL coaches these days. If the Knights improve on last year, Brown deserves a multi-year extension for the work he's put into rebuilding that club and the way he's stuck with the side. That's the thing, coaches need to be given a chance to build a repoirte with players and feel secure in their spots. If a coach feels like they can lose their job at any moment a lot of the time they panic and throw things at the wall to see what sticks. Yes, coaches should be held accountable for their team's performances, but this 'win at all costs' mentality is more damaging to clubs than it is helpful. But if I had to choose one coach from this list to be shown the door it'd be Brad Arthur.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
No doubt good fortune plays into it when it comes to injuries and bunces of the ball etc. Brian Smith coached about 600 games, he wasn't a bad coach but it is fair to say he had some bad luck and could easily have had two or three premierships. I am not saying Cleary won't win, but history says he won't, and he had some pretty good cattle in New Zealand in particular. Kearney had a pretty good squad last year, not a premiership one and in the eyes of many it did over achieve, but there was plenty of talent. Now he has let go his two best half backs, so it is going to be tough. Maybe it is bad luck that you let Lino go and then Johnson demands a release, but maybe the coach should be aware Johnson isn't totally happy and try to get that sorted out more quickly, before Lino decides to go. Maybe I am being generous to Arthur and Stuart. But I don't think Arthur has had a squad any better than what Cleary had at the Panthers or Warriors. Last year was awful, the year before was an overachievement and the year before they finished 14th (but had 13 wins which would have been enough for 9th last season). With the squad he had (and drama), that is probably a pass mark. But either way this year will be his last chance I imagine - whether that is "fair" or not, I am not sure...
Albo
Roar Rookie
I have to disagree with some of your analysis there BA. I think that coaches in the NRL are all at the mercy of the quality of cattle they can get on the park. Some coaches are overrated and have been successful on paper, thanks to the stars they have maintained on the park, others are undervalued and remain under the hammer, due to the poor quality of cattle or injury disasters they have had to work with. I would not be writing off Cleary. He has never really had a premiership capable side to coach. All of his teams have been "rebuild" jobs. And that makes 47 % success rate pretty good. He was close with a couple of seasons at the Panthers but those years chances were eventually cruelled by injury. He has his chance to cash in this year if the Panthers key players can remain healthy. Kearney has an ordinary stable to work with at the Warriors, and its hard to see him being too successful unless some young stars emerge quickly. Brown has recruited very well for the Knights and he has no excuses this year if his halves can see out the season. Arthur & Stuart have each had one bight spark of a year in 5, but have failed to improve on any consistency with their teams at all. Recruitment has largely failed to produce quality. Both sides are missing quality spine position players , making the coaches' chances of success very slim again this year. Based on the teams' quality of cattle they might keep on the field, more so than their coaches, my top 8 in no particular order would be : Roosters Storm Panthers Rabbitohs Broncos Sharks Knights Dragons
Paul
Roar Guru
You can bet the media knives will be out if the Dragons lose a round 17 game by a large margin, assuming they've had good results to that point. If that happens, the players can't help but be affected because family will be talking, friends, etc. In Ricky's case, he's had a truckload of excuses and reasons to dump on the fans & the media. I think by now, that truck's empty!
Fred
Guest
Haha geez that's a fair record!
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I thought Barrett was hard done by as Manly's coach but now he's gone a lot of the negative cobwebs have been blown away and it's been good from that factor alone. You wonder with Mary and Ricky Stuart particularly how much the fade outs are weighing on the psyche of the players and if that can be overcome. The longer it goes on the harder it can become.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
They'll be struggling to beat Cumberlands record low of 38 points scored in a whole season but anythings feasible.
Birdy
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't put my house on the Titans making the 8. But I will be putting my bum on a few seats in anticipation of a very good year.
Fred
Guest
I have no doubt they'll break the record for number of tries scored in a season.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
With a whole herd of immortals and near immortals retired or close to it there are all sorts of chances opening up in the next decade and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple of dark horses emerge from the pack . I can't blame the editors for the title , must be a better way of doing it.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
If the Goldies play up to their potential then I can't see why they couldn't play in a GF. It can't happen if Ash Taylor plays like the 8th best half in the comp. Cleary has no choice but to win a title in the next few years. The Warriors were closer to beating Manly in the GF with Cleary in charge than many would know or remember. It was finely balanced until a mistake or two.
Paul
Roar Guru
Cleary was Gould's pick so there's no way he's going to be let go, unless the Panthers have something like a 3/22 win loss record. If they do, Cleary will be gone and so will Gould. This won;t happen though, so Cleary's safe. What about Brennan at the Gold Coast - is this another building year, in which case a 11th or 12th place finish is okay, or is it a tilt at the finals, in which case anything lower than 8th means he's out?
Paul
Roar Guru
I've been a Dragons supporter since 1970 and have no issues with the merger at all. Obviously I can't speak for all Red V fans, but I'm guessing a huge majority have no opinion or like the merger
Paul
Roar Guru
Nah 40/20, MacGregor's time HAS run out. This is a "put up or p**s off" season for Mary and I'm guessing we'll know by about round 15 whether he stays or goes. I'm not saying, sack him if the Red V don't win a premiership, rather that they play to the ability of their roster, which is considerable, finish in the top 4 and genuinely give the comp a shake.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
The question (title) - Are armchair critics fair to write off these NRL Coaches? So not entirely sure that it is a correct sentence from the editors, none the less... It is fair to write off Cleary - No coach has won a first premiership after coaching 300 top grade games and Cleary is at 295. So he may win and change that, but it is fair to write him off given we have a lot of history we are working with. Kearney's success rate is awful. There is nothing to suggest he can win a Finals match much less a title - and he just let go of the best two halfbacks he had... It is unfair to write off Brown - he has had success (abroad) and has stuck to a process in building this team. He is entitled to a chance. It is unfair to write off Arthur and Stuart. They have shown they can coach - so far as getting a team to perform above expectations. Doesn't mean I think they can win this year, but to write them off is unfair.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The Tigers get up every 20 years from way under the radar so maybe they're due soon. Hard to win a title without scoring tries though Fred.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Yes. That was an issue when the merger first happened. Many of the Kogarah fans gave it to Baz (as an Illawarra junior rep) non-stop because he was keeping Mundine out of his preferred role - despite Barrett being a far superior player. But i think they are far enough past that now to have forgotten who played where 20 years ago. He just needs to win - he has had enough chances and he has been given a strong roster year after year.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
I highly doubt it. It's been more than 20 years since the merger so that sort of sentiment should be long gone for true fans. Mary needs to deliver or go, it's that simple. We have a top 4 roster not one that scrapes into the finals on theast couple of weeks
Fred
Guest
Unfortunately for the coaching profession, the Mighty Madge and his Terrific Tigers will make most other coaches look useless this year.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Maybe that is the case. Outsiders like Barrett and Siebold really cop it if things don't go to plan and I never thought of Mary as an outsider but maybe he is in some regards. That's one of the dangers of joint ventures as some perceive the enemy to come from within many years down the track even. I reckon all coaches could be treated a lot better by the fans myself.