Denver Broncos general manager John Elway is back to his old tricks.
After acquiring the services of the great Peyton Manning in March of 2012, Elway and the Broncos just last week shipped a fourth-round pick to Baltimore for former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco.
Once again, Elway has gone back to the well for a veteran quick-fix at the position that has haunted his reign.
It’s a tactic that has, outside of the Manning hiring, blown up in Elway’s face more often than not, and held an otherwise competitive Denver roster hostage.
Be it acquiring a veteran through free agency, trade or via the draft, the quarterbacks Elway has brought to the Mile High City leave a lot to be desired.
In the beginning it was Brock Osweiler, who looked to replace Manning before betting on himself and losing after signing a $72 million contract with the Houston Texans.
In this instance Denver won and Houston lost, although the Texans now have their ‘guy’ at quarterback in Deshaun Watson, something the Broncos still cannot claim.
Next came Trevor Siemian.
In his 26 starts for the Broncos, Siemian threw 30 touchdowns against 24 interceptions with a completion percentage of 59.3 – respectable numbers for a former seventh round pick out of little Northwestern. Siemian was subsequently traded to the Minnesota Vikings prior to the 2018 season.
Former first-round pick Paxton Lynch was cut after just five games, and was recently touted by Total Pro Sports as the Broncos’ worst draft pick of the last decade.
And in 2018, fans had to sit through a horrendously up-and-down season with the unflattering Case Keenum under centre.
After a dream season in 2017 with the Vikings that had more to do with brilliant coaching, scheming and a strong support cast rather than actual talent, Keenum cashed in, signing a $36 million contract with Denver on March 14.
Which brings us to Flacco.
An ageing – Flacco will turn 35 next January – immobile quarterback whose name now only appears alongside the term ‘elite’ ironically will look to steer Elway’s Broncos back to the playoffs for the first time since the franchise won its fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy, in 2015.
AP Photo/Matt York
Flacco, going from Baltimore to Denver, now finds himself playing behind a much lesser offensive line, a superior receiving group – even with the mid-season trade of Demaryius Thomas – and a strong running game, similar in effectiveness but much different by design.
Defensively, Baltimore finished with the number 1 ranked defence last season (292.9 yards per game), compared to Denver’s 22nd (365.1).
Contractually, Flacco’s remaining figures look monstrous – $63 million over three years – though it’s a contract that will see him earn $18.5 million in 2019, with zero guaranteed money afterwards. Put simply, it won’t tie Elway’s hands at the position, putting the organisation in a prime situation to draft their signal caller of the future and have them sit behind Flacco for at least one season – think Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
That rookie could be drafted as soon as this April, in a draft not exactly lauded for the quarterback talents available. Even so, many scouts around the league will tell you the jungle drums are beating when it comes to the Broncos’ interest in Missouri’s Drew Lock.
In any case, Elway can only dream of having a situation like the rival Chiefs have recently experienced with the Mahomes phenomenon.
In reality, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that the quarterback to lead the Broncos to their fifth Lombardi trophy has not yet been lured by Mr Elway.
mushi
Roar Guru
My other comment is apparently awaiting moderation (never use therm stat is tical re lev ance ) The best I can find for a performance metric is a 0.6 correlation for a combined stat and that doesn't equate for the noise. Because if the unexpected performance is typically exhibited by lower draft picks then they have an advantage in surrounding talent
B C Peel
Guest
The studies I've seen say it is the highest correlation but still not high enough to be a reliable standalone indicator of success. The point being there is no reliable indicator of success, just less worse ones. Yep height is overrated (it's still a positive indicator but more as a tie breaker) amongst talent evaluators, arm strength even more so (that was the biggest knock on brees). Mind you we are on the cusp of seeing scrambling become the same issue. There are three other issues with QBs. The first is if they aren't #1 on the depth chart they have next to zero impact. Drafting a left tackle who turns out to be not quite good enough can slide to RT or, depending on skill set, guard. A qb is either a starter or a loss of draft capital. 2nd the teams that do hit on one get a very long use of that asset, so the upside is so tantalizing and the comparative disadvantage huge. 3rd, and the biggest issue is separating the qb from the situation. We believe the old narrative of the qb being the most important position in sports and hence place the outcome 100% upon them despite so many other influences on their performance.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
It's not really a crap shoot. There is a correlation between completion rates in college and completion rates in the NFL, there are studies out there that show this. Compare the completion rates of the starters you listed against those that were 1st round busts. Even a guy like RG3 had a high completion rate at both levels before the knee injury. Guys with a high completion percentage that failed had a poor TD-INT ratio (manziel, Ponder, russell, Sanchez, Weedon). Elway signs QB's based on the idea of a prototypical QB - tall and with arm strength. In fact the three tallest QB's since 1995 have been signed by Elway (Osweiler & Lynch both 6'7" and Flacco 6'6"). Of those 19 first rounders how many were under 6'1"? I'll take under 2.5. They are drafted on type rather then true talent. Because all teams do it it is considered no risk and the right thing to do. And when they fail it is blamed on the player, not the fact he shouldn't have been drafted so high in the first place. Brees and Wilson fell in the draft because of their height
mushi
Roar Guru
Manning was pretty good outside his final year? I'm not sure there's any broncos fan going Manning sucked his entire time with us when he was setting passing records... QB is a prettty hard position to get right, a quick look at the 2010-2016 (17/18 QB's that wash out in the future are likely to still be in the honeymoon) I see 19 first rounders and only 8 of them are starters (being kind to Bortles and Tannehill) of the 6 likely 2019 Starters they were all highly rated #1 or #2 picks (Newton, Luck, Winston, Mariota, Goff and Wentz). John has been horrible on the QB front, but then most GM's are (there's plenty of articles written about the crap shoot of QB selection). I'm more worried about his general hit rate in the draft which has seen the depth thin out and sacrifices made to keep the pass rush in tact.
0oB
Guest
If Butt & Fumagalli ever got fit the Broncos might have a decent TE room. The finances on this deal will probably mean they lose their best OL, too - making the line even worse. This is such a silly move. Like... just.... why? And yes, the Ravens should be very happy.
mushi
Roar Guru
Sure he signed Sanchez but it was to back up money. Not sure about the tebow stuff, he hated elway and his pro football reference doesn't show a second Denver contract. If he got Flacco in free agency for 5m with no dead money for the back up then fine. But giving up a 4th rounder and adding the dead money on Keenum this is head scratcher when we need the cap space at multiple positions
no one in particular
Roar Guru
He also signed Manning (which was only successful due to the awesome defense), Osweiler, Siemian, Kevin Hogan, Keenum, Christian Ponder, Paxton Lynch (1st round LOL), Chad Kelly, Bryn Renner, Ryan Katz, Zac Dysert, Caleb Hanie,
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Before ultimately going with Siemian in 2016, didn't Elway sign Teebow to a three year deal - even though the guy hadn't played in three years? I think he signed Sanchez in there as well at some point.....
mushi
Roar Guru
Sutton is going to need to jump up to be a #1 receiver
mushi
Roar Guru
Are you including Sanders because he's probably going to be out after this move right?
mushi
Roar Guru
Is Flacco really a certainty to be middle of the pack though? He's been a bottom third QB many times. I'd say his upside is middle of the pack. His downside is bottom tier. So we're giving up a mid round pick (and the resulting cap flexibility of that young player) to probably tred water in a year where marginal improvement is unlikely to achieve much given 2 of the best teams on the league are in the division. Plus whilst flacco's contract will be cap friendly in reality there's a cap hit to the move in the form of Keenum's contract which is now redundant so the net effect of the move is less risk free. The line is the bigger issue in the passing game, we're also probably going to lose Sanders now to afford to resign Paradis and address other holes. I think Flacco's a Meh move if he were a cheap rental free agent. But giving an asset up for the privilege is insane.
Brent Sternberg
Roar Guru
Matt, The Ravens have a wonderful young TE duo in Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst as you would know, but their WR core is possibly one of the weakest in the league. Crabtree, Snead and John Brown all had sub-standard seasons, and Brown likely won't be back as he is an unrestricted FA. Courtland Sutton was a gem of a find in the second round last April, and if you think he might be just 'alright', I'd suggest you didn't watch him play with the Broncos much last season (and I wouldn't blame you either). Desean Hamilton, another rookie, looks like he could develop into a really nice WR2 or WR3 judging by his first season, while Tim Patrick (ironically a former Raven) came on strong late last season as well. I'm not suggesting Denver have a wonderful receiving group, but theirs offers a lot more potential going forward when compared to the Ravens group. Thanks for reading.
GFH
Roar Rookie
As a Baltimore fan, I am overjoyed that Denver have given up a high 4th-round pick for Flacco. He has been nothing short of awful – and while people will point out that he hasn’t been given much to work with, frankly when you ask for top-10 money then a team would expect top-10 performance. Essentially his $18.5m this year is guaranteed as Denver aren’t trading a 4th rounder to cut a guy after 2 months. Those base salaries for 2020 and 2021 look scary though. Denver have a nice RB in Lindsay but otherwise their O-line is below average, their TE group pitiful, and Sanders has a 0% chance of playing this year post-Achilles tear. Sutton might turn out ok but overall – is this much better than Baltimore’s skill group? Anyway good luck to Elway, he’s gonna need it.
Monday QB
Guest
Firstly, i'm not a Denver fan or a fan of rival AFC North teams, so hopefully what follows is reasonably objective. I don't mind this move for the following reasons: (i) There's not projected to be a heap of depth in this year's draft at QB by comparison to recent years and the likely 2020 draft class. (ii) Taking Flacco (who will almost certainly be a middle-of-the-pack QB) is an upgrade at the position for the 2019 season when compared with the other available options. (iii) As is pointed out in the article, the contract comes with the built in risk mitigation measure of no guaranteed dollars after next season. (iii) The AFC West is likely competing for second place behind KC for a couple more seasons (at least until Mahomes' rookie contract runs out). Considering the above, recycling Flacco seems a better strategy for now than selling the farm.