The Algorithm had a decent weekend in Round 2, correctly calling 5 from 7 matches, but some of the margins were a little out.
Some of the sides have had fairly major changes during the off season, so it will take a while for this to filter properly into the Algorithm.
Round 2 debrief
Firstly, let’s have a look at how our Algorithm’s predicted results stacked up against reality.
Very few foresaw the Brumbies trampling the Chiefs by 37 points – probably not even the Canberrans themselves – but full credit to the Australian outfit for a magnificent performance.
Super Rugby: Predicted vs actual (Round 2) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 10 from 14 (71%) | Season margin error: 14.36 | |||
Weekend accuracy: 5 from 7 (71%) | Weekend margin error: 13.71 | |||
Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin error |
Highlanders | 36 | 38 | Yes | 14 |
Reds | 31 | 19 | ||
Brumbies | 54 | 29 | No | 43 |
Chiefs | 17 | 35 | ||
Crusaders | 38 | 29 | Yes | 7 |
Hurricanes | 22 | 20 | ||
Jaguares | 27 | 35 | Yes | 8 |
Bulls | 12 | 28 | ||
Sunwolves | 30 | 21 | Yes | 5 |
Waratahs | 31 | 27 | ||
Sharks | 26 | 26 | Yes | 11 |
Blues | 7 | 18 | ||
Stormers | 19 | 27 | No | 8 |
Lions | 17 | 33 |
Highlanders v Reds
What’s up with the Highlanders this season? Leaving it late, again, winning the game in the 75th minute with a try from Dilion Hunt. However Shannon Frizell was the star of the show, scoring a brace and taking his tally to three tries in two games in 2019.
Sunwovles v Waratahs
The Waratahs were on the right side of a one-point win this time around, beating the Sunwolves in Japan. The home side will be thinking what could have been after again coming out of the blocks fast in the first ten minutes.
Crusaders v Hurricanes
This one set a new record in Super Rugby with the Crusaders winning a 17th straight game. The final score was 38-22 and could have been more with the Cantabrians being a total of 31 points ahead before the ‘Canes put any points on the board. But we’re not surprised they put on this masterful performance!
Brumbies v Chiefs
The Brumbies absolutely stomped all over the Chiefs winning 54-17 (33-10 HT) scoring eight tries to two. This was the best performance we’ve seen from the Canberra outfit in years and with superstar David Pocock out with concussion it certainly didn’t slow them down at all. The Chiefs have now lost two on the trot.
Sharks v Blues
The Sharks are top of the South African Conference after winning 26-7 against the Blues. The Blues sadly didn’t show up as much as we thought they would with the South Africans winning by 11 more points than expected. We were excited to see what the Blues could show after narrowly losing to the Crusaders in Round 1. Hopefully they can kick on from this.
Stormers v Lions
The Stormers have a win after the hiding they got in Round 1, albeit by taking the lead in the 85th minute (there seems to be a trend of last-minute wins this season!)
Jaguares v Bulls
We were a bit worried about the Jaguares this game, especially after the Bulls won 40-3 against the Stormers in Round 1, however the Algorithm showed the faith in the Argentinian outfit was warranted as they won and won comfortably. They’ll be feeling confident against a Blues side travelling to Buenos Aires this weekend.
Round 2 matches and predictions
Here are the Algorithms predictions for the second round of Super Rugby.
The Algorithm’s Predictions: Super Rugby Round 3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season accuracy: 10 from 14 (71%) | Season margin error: 14.36 | |||
Teams | Predicted Score | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
Hurricanes | 24 | 72.5% | Hurricanes to win by 9 | |
Brumbies | 15 | 25.3% | ||
Rebels | 21 | 32.6% | Highlanders to win by 9 | |
Highlanders | 30 | 67.4% | ||
Jaguares | 29 | 68.7% | Jaguares to win by 7 | |
Blues | 22 | 29.3% | ||
Sharks | 23 | 68.5% | Sharks to win by 5 | |
Stormers | 18 | 29.4% | ||
Lions | 35 | 84.2% | Lions to win by 15 | |
Bulls | 20 | 15.4% | ||
Chiefs | 38 | 89.4% | Chiefs to win by 23 | |
Sunwolves | 15 | 9% | ||
Reds | 22 | 24.2% | Crusaders to win by 15 | |
Crusaders | 37 | 74.1% |
Hurricanes v Brumbies
The Hurricanes are back in Palmerston North, New Zealand against a powerful Brumbies outfit and will hoping to be on the right side of the scoreline this time out.
Last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hurricanes | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 248 | 40% | 25.00 |
Brumbies | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 248 | 250 | 60% | 24.80 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
30/6/18 | Brumbies | 24 | Hurricanes | 12 |
21/7/17 | Brumbies | 16 | Hurricanes | 35 |
21/4/17 | Hurricanes | 56 | Brumbies | 21 |
26/2/16 | Brumbies | 52 | Hurricanes | 10 |
27/6/15 | Hurricanes | 29 | Brumbies | 9 |
7/3/14 | Hurricanes | 21 | Brumbies | 29 |
31/5/13 | Brumbies | 30 | Hurricanes | 23 |
18/5/12 | Hurricanes | 25 | Brumbies | 37 |
9/4/11 | Brumbies | 17 | Hurricanes | 16 |
16/4/10 | Brumbies | 13 | Hurricanes | 23 |
The Algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 9, but if the Brumbies put in another performance like last week we could be in for another upset.
Rebels v Highlanders
The Rebels will be excited to see the Highlanders on their home turf this round. After their Round 1 win against the Brumbies, they will be feeling confident even though the Highlanders are two from two.
History
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rebels | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 150 | 274 | 14% | 21.43 |
Highlanders | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 150 | 86% | 39.14 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
14/7/18 | Highlanders | 43 | Rebels | 37 |
31/3/17 | Highlanders | 51 | Rebels | 12 |
26/3/16 | Rebels | 3 | Highlanders | 27 |
4/4/14 | Highlanders | 33 | Rebels | 30 |
12/7/13 | Rebels | 38 | Highlanders | 37 |
30/3/12 | Highlanders | 43 | Rebels | 12 |
15/4/11 | Rebels | 18 | Highlanders | 40 |
The Algorithm has the Highlanders to win by 9, but admittedly was quite far out with the Rebels in Round 1, so perhaps they can put in another storming performance and overturn the odds.
Chiefs v Sunwolves
This is an interesting match-up with both teams without a win, but with the Sunwolves coming mighty close in the last round against the Waratahs, they will be hoping to go one better this time around.
History
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 30 | 100% | 44.00 |
Sunwolves | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 88 | 0% | 15.00 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
24/3/18 | Sunwolves | 10 | Chiefs | 61 |
29/4/17 | Chiefs | 27 | Sunwolves | 20 |
On home soil the Algorithm has the Chiefs to win comfortably by 23 points, and take their record to three from three against the Sunwolves.
Reds v Crusaders
The Reds will feel a little hard done by after their first run of the 2019 season ended with them just falling short against the Highlanders. They will be hoping to bounce back but might struggle nagainst a strong Crusaders pack.
Last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reds | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 179 | 309 | 30% | 17.90 |
Crusaders | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 309 | 179 | 70% | 30.90 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
11/3/17 | Reds | 20 | Crusaders | 22 |
6/5/16 | Crusaders | 38 | Reds | 5 |
8/5/15 | Crusaders | 58 | Reds | 17 |
11/5/14 | Reds | 29 | Crusaders | 57 |
20/7/13 | Crusaders | 38 | Reds | 9 |
6/5/12 | Crusaders | 15 | Reds | 11 |
9/7/11 | Reds | 18 | Crusaders | 13 |
29/5/11 | Reds | 17 | Crusaders | 16 |
19/2/10 | Reds | 41 | Crusaders | 20 |
8/5/09 | Crusaders | 32 | Reds | 12 |
The Algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 15 away from home, but again perhaps is underestimating the Australian sides by not accounting for the off season changes. At home, the Reds will certainly be looking for a good performance and a win against top-ranked Crusaders would be a massive statement.
Lions v Bulls
With both teams on one win and one loss, they will be looking to push on in the South African conference and catch the Sharks. Both losses could be considered a bit of a shock (depending who you support obviously!) so will be hoping to set things right.
Last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lions | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 336 | 249 | 60% | 33.60 |
Bulls | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 249 | 336 | 40% | 24.90 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
14/7/18 | Lions | 38 | Bulls | 12 |
3/3/18 | Bulls | 35 | Lions | 49 |
20/5/17 | Lions | 51 | Bulls | 14 |
28/5/16 | Bulls | 20 | Lions | 56 |
2/5/15 | Bulls | 35 | Lions | 33 |
4/4/15 | Lions | 22 | Bulls | 18 |
31/5/14 | Lions | 32 | Bulls | 21 |
1/3/14 | Bulls | 25 | Lions | 17 |
14/7/12 | Bulls | 37 | Lions | 20 |
14/4/12 | Lions | 18 | Bulls | 32 |
The Algorithm has the Lions to win comfortably at home by 15 points however, so perhaps the Bulls will have to wait a little longer to for that next win.
Sharks v Stormers
The Sharks will be looking to extend their perfect run in 2019 at the top of the South African conference while the Stormers will be hoping to improve after the last-round win. Below are the recent matches between the two sides.
Last ten games
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sharks | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 214 | 247 | 50% | 21.40 |
Stormers | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 247 | 214 | 50% | 24.70 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
27/10/18 | Stormers | 12 | Sharks | 17 |
29/9/18 | Stormers | 50 | Sharks | 28 |
7/7/18 | Stormers | 27 | Sharks | 16 |
21/4/18 | Sharks | 24 | Stormers | 17 |
28/10/17 | Sharks | 21 | Stormers | 33 |
14/10/17 | Sharks | 20 | Stormers | 31 |
26/8/17 | Stormers | 20 | Sharks | 21 |
27/5/17 | Sharks | 22 | Stormers | 10 |
3/9/16 | Stormers | 34 | Sharks | 27 |
12/3/16 | Stormers | 13 | Sharks | 18 |
The Algorithm has the Sharks to win by five, which is the tightest margin in this week’s predictions, so for the neutrals this might be the match to watch.
Jaguares v Blues
The Blues travel to Argentina to play the Jaguares, who recorded their first win last time out. The Blues are still winless in 2019, despite some good performances, and will need to start strong to get anything out of the game. It’s one win apiece in the previous matches, with Jaguares recording a first win on New Zealand soil in their last match against the Blues.
History
P | W | L | D | F | A | Win % | Avg Pts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaguares | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 | 50% | 18.00 |
Blues | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 36 | 50% | 18.50 |
Date | Home | Score | Away | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
28/4/18 | Blues | 13 | Jaguares | 20 |
2/4/16 | Blues | 24 | Jaguares | 16 |
The Algorithm has the Jaguares to win by 7 at home, but no doubt the Blues will be looking for a rebound win to go with their improved form.
Hoges
Roar Rookie
That’s awesome thanks
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
This was our worst week yet!
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
— COMMENT DELETED —
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
This could be the case but unlikely to be this time round. We do take into account the matches in between and current form. At this moment in time the projected semifinalists are NZ, Ireland, England and Wales. Could all change between now and then though!
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
Absolutely right. I actually prefer to look at the predictions not fully as predictions, but more as a metric to describe the relative strength of the two sides over the past few years. Obviously if a team has put in lots of internal development and is improving, this will not be factored into the algorithm and it will get them wrong (it will start correcting for this relatively quickly though). However, i find even in these circumstances it is quite interesting as you can quantify just how far they are outperforming the expectation and their previous form.
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
At the moment, put simply, we don't. However were working on incorporating squad selection into the algorithm so that this does affect the predictions. Just haven't quite got it tweaked properly yet!
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
Will try and get them up earlier in future, sure thing. However if you check out our website all the raw data stuff is up there early doors!
Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
Sure we can try do this for you. However if you dont see it up and running before then head on over the www.rugby4cast.com where we have them up and running before Thursday including other competitions such as six nations, pro14 etc. Also post on our Facebook page Rugby4Cast
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
A bit off topic here , but if algorithms are so history based then comes semi final time at the World cup we are going to see 3 SH teams and only 1 NH fighting it out.
Lano
Roar Guru
Indeed. Babe Ruth - "Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games.”
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Yes, Lano. If I am reading this correctly the algorithm is ‘history based’? The 71% success rate may show at least two things: - that rugby cultures can be resilient, and - the power of self fulfilling prophecy. That is, what we expect we get. As such there is an inherent flaw in the system - history is there to be changed, and is diverted, every day.
Lano
Roar Guru
mmmmm....although your black box is doing better than all the Roar experts. I always answer "it's algorithmic'' whenever I can't explain.... and ''axiomatic'' Serious question: If you just use game data, how do you adjust, for extraneous factors, for example, the Highlander's All Black players being rested this weekend?
Hoges
Roar Rookie
I really like what you’ve done here, well laid out and great info. Any chance you could post on Thursdays in future? I do my tips and a few sneaky bets each round on thurs nights (Friday work days suck during rugby season). It would be great to be able to add what you provide to info from a variety of sources when considering my tips / wagers. If not, no biggie, just thought I’d ask. I’m sure others are in a similar boat (finalising tips thurs night). Keep up the great work!!
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Mathematical formula is awesome. The one thing I would bet my humble abode , a 16ft Millard caravan on is those predictions will not come true. I consulted my local Gypsy fortune teller in her horse drawn caravan this morning and she foresaw some different scores !