England are raging favourites to win the World Cup in four months from now yet it is India who are the much better balanced ODI side.
England’s weak bowling attack was exposed in their 2-2 ODI series draw against a West Indian side that has not won an ODI series for almost five years.
The West Indies smashed totals of 389 and 360 in that series before finishing off yesterday by rolling England for 113 and then incredibly chasing that down in just 12.1 overs. This all underscored the frailty of the England attack.
India, meanwhile, have a gun batting line-up as well as the world’s top ODI bowling unit, boasting No. 1 ODI quick Jasprit Bumrah and easily the best spin combination going in Kuldeep Yadav and Yuzvendra Chahal, who combined have taken 150 wickets at 22 in ODIs.
Look back at the Australian teams that won four of the last five World Cups and you’ll see one thing in common: the ability to dominate games with either bat or ball. India have that ability, England do not.
What England do have is perhaps the most consistently destructive batting line-up ever assembled in ODIs. Since the last World Cup, England have been by far the highest-scoring team in ODIs, going at 6.25 runs per over.
That average run rate places them well ahead of India (5.70), South Africa (5.70), Australia (5.69), New Zealand (5.68), Pakistan (5.48), Sri Lanka (5.34), Bangladesh (5.18) and the West Indies (5.13).
England (53 wins, 23 losses) also have the equal-best win-loss record in that time alongside India (55 wins, 24 losses). The English side have earned this commanding record due to adopting a vastly different approach to batting.
They were an awful ODI side before that period in a large part because of their outdated and overly defensive approach to batting.
Then, after the 2015 World Cup, they picked a bunch of new batsmen and gave them the licence to attack. Since then England have been setting and chasing massive totals in routine fashion thanks to both the quality and the length of their batting line-up.
The England batting unit is scary. That is a unanimous opinion. They will continue to be intimidating in the World Cup.
The doubt that lingers is how England will cope if their batting unit has an off day, vecause their bowling attack does not have the proven ability to win games.
England’s attack would rank fifth in the world in ODIs behind India, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. They do not boast a single superstar ODI bowler.
Sam Curran. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
The man English pundits often refer to as England’s best ODI bowler, Chris Woakes, has a career ODI bowling average of 32, and that average rises to 37 in the UK, where the World Cup will be played.
It is leg spinner Adil Rashid who I think is in fact England’s best ODI bowler. Yet Rashid still has a career ODI average of 30 and is not equal to either of India’s wrist spinners.
Beyond that England have solid seamers Liam Plunkett and Tom Curran, who average 31 and 32 in ODIs respectively. None of Woakes, Plunkett or Curran is close to the quality of proven ODI matchwinning quicks like Bumrah, Mitchell Starc, Trent Boult or Kagiso Rabada.
From there the numbers get really grim for England, with quick Mark Wood averaging 45 in ODIs, spinner Moeen Ali averaging 47 and all-rounder Ben Stokes averaging 41.
Recognising they do not have any matchwinners with the ball but a ton of them with the blade, England’s approach has been to try to limit the damage of the opposition batting line-up rather than focusing on bowling them out.
This works just fine when their incredible batting line-up runs amok, as it often does. But their batting unit is not infallible, and when they have an off day England do not have the bowlers to turn things around.
The best example of this was the semi-final of the 2017 Champions Trophy, a tournament England were massive favourites to win.
England batted first, were bowled out for 211 and their limited bowling attack then got destroyed by Pakistan, who cruised to 2-215 from 37.1 overs.
While England’s batting line-up has fired many times in random bilateral series, they failed the only time the pressure was really on in a knockout tournament match.
It remains to be seen whether their helter-skelter batting style will hold up under the heavy scrutiny of being hot favourites in a World Cup semi-final and final.
Meanwhile, India have a wonderfully well-balanced team, so much so that I find it very hard to say whether they are a better batting or bowling team in ODIs.
This is just like the Australian ODI teams that won four of the last five World Cups – on any given day they were likely to either bat an opponent out of the match or blow them away with the ball.
In the last World Cup Australia produced fantastic batting and bowling efforts in all three of their knockout matches.
They dismissed Pakistan for 213 in the quarter-final, India for 233 in the semi-final and then New Zealand for 183 in the final.
In that World Cup it was the four best bowling attacks which made the semis – Australia, India, South Africa and New Zealand.
India and South Africa currently have the two best ODI bowling attacks. Australia at full strength are probably third, although their frailty with the bat leaves them long odds to defend their World Cup trophy.
India have three bonafide star ODI bowlers in Bumrah (80 wickets at 21), Kuldeep (79 wickets at 21), and Chahal (71 wickets at 24). By comparison, Adil Rashid (128 wickets at 30) has the best ODI record for England.
Bumrah and Kuldeep are arguably the two biggest ODI matchwinners with the ball in the world. Even if India stumble with the bat in the World Cup, they will remain in the contest due to the wizardry of that pair, not to mention the danger posed by Chahal.
MS Dhoni. (AP Photo/David Rowland)
And with the bat India are commanding. Quite incredibly, their entire top six has a career average of 45 or better in ODIs – Virat Kohli (59), MS Dhoni (51), Ambati Rayudu (49), Rohit Sharma (48), Kedhar Jadhav (47) and Shikhar Dhawan (45).
India’s batting line-up is not as dynamic as England’s, but when it comes to picking the team that will triumph under pressure in a World Cup I will always favour the side that can win games either with bat or ball.
That’s why India, not England, are my favourites to win the 2019 World Cup.
George
Guest
Woakes has excelled in most of their other recent series, including beating Ronan's Supermen home and away
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
I was pointing out that stats don't necessarily predict. I don't really think the Afghanis have the best attack in world of cricket. From a statistical perspective, what are the Afghanis doing on that top ten list? No of games played or opposition etc All stats have a weakness but I think you're right. These predictions give you an idea but once the competition starts all bets are off. I'm sure Sun Tzu and Mike Tyson would agree
Kandeepan Arul
Roar Rookie
Teams are getting better at reading Mujeeb and Rashid Khan's variations. Ireland recently beat them. Mystery spinners only stay mysterious for so long. They'll probably win a couple of games. By expectations I meant that of a neutral cricket fan like myself.
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
But Afghanistan has two bowlers in the top ten odi bowlers! Don't India expect to win the wc every tournament and are disappointed with anything less? Managing expectations might be harder than predicting outcomes ...
Kandeepan Arul
Roar Rookie
It does give a benchmark of expectation to compare actual performance against. For India anything less than a world cup victory would be seen as a fail. For Australia anything less than semi-finals would be a failure. For Afghanistan winning a game would make the tournament a success.
Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Does being the favourite make any difference? Interesting as a thought experiment but unless you're interested from a gambling perspective does it really effect the outcome? You could cut the stats on win/loss, average, top rating, world cup experience, tournament experience and you can cut the stats by time period ie last 12 months etc etc etc ad infinitum
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Australia would have played that match in 1996 if it wasn't scheduled for Sri Lanka where the safety/terrorism risk was high! Australia chose to forfeit because of the venue, not the team and country. Indeed, Australia played, and lost, the final to Sri Lanka! India have asked that the ICC should ban Pakistan from playing anywhere! That is about the country, not the venue. If that is the case, and there is no safety risk when playing cricket in England, then how does India justify playing them at any stage, anywhere? In the absence of any mitigating factors (eg: safety risks like those that applied in Sri Lanka in 1996), if India refuse to play a country that is legitimately playing in the tournament then sanctions should be applied by the
BCCIICC.Sgt Pepperoni
Roar Rookie
Weren't the WI pitches used pretty flat? Either out bullied or out bowled?
Philgb
Guest
He has a lot to prove at the highest level you’re right there. I just think the raw ability and attributes are clearly there and if nurtured properly he should massively improve the current pace attack. I agree completely that India have the best bowling attack at present but the beauty of the current England side is that they only need a half decent attack due to the sheer power and length of the batting line up. If you’re consistently getting scores around 350-400 the stats prove more often than not you don’t get beat. All that being said it’s the WC and as we know form often goes out the window!
Loki
Guest
Who refused to play Sri Lanka in the 96 World cup? Even after other teams had played there.
dat
Roar Rookie
It wasn’t even the entire BCCI, which decided on the matter in the first place,it was the Committee of Administrators ,which passed the request and even then it was deliberated on whether to send it or not. Even when they send the letter, they literally said,’if no action is taken , then there is still alot of time before the wc,and we will consult the government on the matter,and they will have the final say’. ‘It wasn’t a ban Pakistan or we will no play ‘ kinda threat as you believe. It was more so a request than the usual sorta affairs the bigger boards get into. The ICC gave the Bcci a warning on what would happen, if india refused to play Pakistan, and that included forfeiting the points to Pakistan and a hefty fine as well.Maybe if you were in charge of the ICC, you would disqualify them,but as it stands no such actions are being discussed.
rishi kumar
Guest
You cannot compare test performance with ODI. India's performance in England in ODI format has been terrific. They have won the Champions trophy 2013 n were runner-up in champions trophy 2017. They have also won bilateral series against England in England. I believe India is much better balanced odi team than England. Indian bowling line - bumrah, buvi, shami, kuldeep, chahal, jajeda is arguably the best in the world.
Kandeepan Arul
Roar Rookie
If the curators prepare roads then West Indies could be the dark horse. They tied the series against England without Evin Lewis and Andre Russell. Don't think they have the discipline to go all the way but certainly will be entertaining to watch.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Nope! That may sound nice in your head dat but the BCCI did request the ICC to ban Pakistan for harbouring terrorists. Has that situation changed (in India's eyes) because the ICC refused their request? Refusing to play a match at the World Cup should result in immediate disqualification and ongoing sanctions for India!
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Apologies , just checked gain and see England have edged ahead of India . Probably should have rechecked first.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
England are clear favourites with Betfair, Sportsbet and Bet365, the three bookies I checked.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Hi Ronan are you certain about England being favourites. A month ago I checked with the Sports Betting agency in South Africa and India were clear front runners on the book.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Spot on Targa , actually Gary Kirsten when he took over as India's coach immediately set about making fielding drills a priority. Prior to that it was so bad it was almost laughable. Then of course as you point out came the IPL and the cross pollination of top fielding coaches around the world . Jonty Rhodes still involved in this area . The net outcome is that India in a short space of time now one of the best fielding sides in the World. We see a similar phenomenon taking place with Mickey Arthur and Pakistan.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
In last year's T20 Blast in England, Archer was bowling the death overs for Sussex in the final against Worcestershire. It was a horror of a finish for Archer as he bowled a wide which the keeper couldn't reach for and it went to the boundary before Ben Cox pulled him to the square-leg boundary to score the winning runs from the next ball. Can't comment on his performance in the BBL as I didn't follow it that much.
dat
Roar Rookie
Issues between both countries have settled down a tad bit,since the initial terror attack in Kashmir. Now, it’s been just a bit of the same old same old, of trying to get the UN to intervene ,and occasional warning being passed from both sides, these past few days . Unless another attack soon follows or the current Indian PM Modi in his bid to regain power before the impending election does something drastic,the match with Pakistan is likely to go on. There was never any talk of not attending the wc,just forfeiting the match vs Pakistan,though i suppose the possibility of having to play Pakistan in the knockout stages, might not have crossed their minds.