Do we remember Adrian Cox?
He was a Hawthorn player, a dashing winger with a shaved head at the turn of the century who played 54 AFL matches. For some reason he was the player that really stood out for me from Hawthorn’s nifty finals series of 2001 and the fraught Essendon versus Hawthorn preliminary final, only his 11th game.
I was shocked to read that he only grabbed 11 possessions that match because he hangs tall in my memory. I remember him taking one of the ‘marks’ of the century in that match, similar to that one where Warwick Capper’s midriff dangled over his defender’s shoulders.
Unfortunately for Cox, he did this as a defender on his own goal-line, and Essendon’s shot at goal was judged to have marginally crossed. There was, therefore, no mark of the century, or even a possession stat. Essendon were given six points on the play and they won a quite dodgy match by nine.
Adrian Cox, rather than remaining a niche premiership player in the AFL memory forevermore like Shane Biggs and Clay Smith, was simply never heard of again.
The 2000-01 period turned out to be a false dawn for the Hawks. They had an inconsistent home and away series but clicked for the finals in both years, winning three in total. Ask Essendon and Richmond (pre-2017): three finals wins for a developing team are nothing to scoff at. They can be cherished by the fans, but the hard work always starts again tomorrow.
Some teams play beautiful home and away seasons but simply can’t pull it together in the physical and mental pressure of a final. Then we have the more bizarre cases of the opposite effect.
Port Adelaide’s 2013-14 story almost completely matches Hawthorn’s listed above. Two finals series (but no top-four ladder finishes or truly consistent home and away seasons) yielded three finals wins over two years and another agonising preliminary final loss. Conventional wisdom suggested a young team was set for glory over the following years. Conventional wisdom was wrong – they had left it all on the field in the 2014 finals series.
We then had the most star-crossed case of all, where a young Western Bulldogs had a two-year finals stint (no top-four finishes) and cobbled together four finals victories over the period. They were clever enough to have grouped theirs in the same season. Then they were gone.
I can’t say more about September 2016 than say, Martin Flanagan can, but magnificent achievement aside, the Doggies were ultimately little different from Hawthorn 2001 and Port 2014, except their preliminary final was won by a few points rather than lost.
Look, this article is not based on anything substantial. It’s just a possible pattern I noticed. A gun finals series is simply no guarantee you’ll be any good next year over the 22-game haul, especially if you’re a young team.
Melbourne’s 2018 home and away season until Round 22 was rather ratty. Human memory, being skewed towards the end of things, is kind to the 2018 Demons. They did win four tremendous matches in a row. This, however, is definite proof of only 27 days of form.
Maybe they made the step up. They could go on with it. They might not. Collingwood, too, played an admirable 2018 finals series but it was only their first finals appearance of this spell. I guess I could make this same argument for them too.
Personal feeling is that Collingwood’s foundation is better and they are not as risky as Melbourne, for cultural reasons as much as their playing list, but I’m not being paid the big bucks. My opinion is as much an indication of the future as a fart in the wind. But we’ll see.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I can guarantee there are never any guarantees in footy.
Seymorebutts
Roar Rookie
1958 all over again? my late old man a Dees fan complained about that one till the day he died. The one that got away he used to say ;)
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think either Grundy or Gawn going down would be massive blows for both sides flag aspirations. Hardly an exclusive world breaking comment but neither club can replace them adequately.
Dean
Guest
I think Melbourne has had the more natural progression between the two teams. They have steadily improved each year and have not come out of the clouds to make finals or win a premiership. Both teams have the ability to be there at the end and win the premiership but l am tipping the Demons to clinch the cup this year. My only concern for the Pies is a tougher draw and the jump from 13th to second in one season.
Hamish
Roar Rookie
I'll pay Reid as an asset you missed in the GF. But having a committee of blokes don't make up for the fact eventually someone ends up one out with a key forward.
Tony Tea
Guest
I barrack for Melbourne and I predict we will have a Geelong 2006 / Richmond 2016 season before rebounding for a Deenasty from 2020 onwards.
1DER
Guest
Melbourne is the most vulnerable. Had big scores kicked against them in losses against Geelong x 2, Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and St Kilda. Worst for points against for sides in the top 8 for season 2018. Have double ups against sides in Swans, Tigers and the Pies, who they failed to win games against last year plus the Eagles and Saints. No certainties for top 8 in season 2019 with a backline that is no where settled. 10-12 wins will see them in 2019 with a big finish required in last 4 rounds to make the finals.
Troy
Guest
I think that Collingwood are often being miscast as a young, developing team in the mould of Melbourne, or those Port and Hawks teams mentioned. They’re actually fairly experienced; they just hadn’t made finals in a while. That may end up helping them stay up over the next 2-3 years - my point is more I wouldn’t categorise them as a ‘rising’ team.
Joe
Guest
Every year people place far too much emphasis on finals results when attempting to predict future form.
Rob
Guest
Pruess was bought in for a situation like Gawn going down - Oliver cant be replaced with an Oliver but i beleive there is enough midfield depth to cover him to an extent, Weiderman might not have the bulk of Hogan but has good footy smarts and has proven he can take a strong contested mark on a regular basis so im actually pretty excited to see him get a lot of games this year... as for Petracca im hoping his day will arrive - weve had plenty of glimpses but fully agree its time for him to stand up and start turning it on in a few big games. I think what people are forgetting about the dees this year is Viney bearly played last year and Lever will be back around middle of the year
Rob
Guest
It would be awesome hey? Reignite an old rivalry in modern times
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Undersized defence? Depends how many injured surely? Moore: 1.99m Dunn: 1.92m Roughhead: 2.0m Reid: 1.95m Madgen: 1.92 Scharenberg: 1.91m Goldsack: 1.93 Kelly: 1.96 Howe: 1.9
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Would really love a Melbourne V Collingwood GF
Hamish
Roar Rookie
Both sides have flaws. The Pies backline remains undersized and while Mason Cox owned a prelim, there is still a lot riding on him. Pies every chance of a 0&3 start as they are a 3&0. Melbourne, well the margin for error is even less. What would a significant injury to Oliver or Gawn look like? Will Petracca ever arrive? Is Sam Weideman the very example you're talking about, a couple of good months work and he was given the mantle as 2nd forward. That's a lot for his skinny shoulders.
hawker
Guest
Interesting read. I would be shocked if Collingwood don't make the top 4, adding Beams , a fit again Elliott and versatile Moore is an impressive side. Melbourne I like the team but I don't trust them in big games yet. Last year they wet the bed in the ANZAC eve, queens birthday and then conceded the prelim with 5 min. Its a tough league especially in the middle of the ladder and it doesn't take much to get sucked into a dog fight for the top 8
Rob
Guest
Wish your last line had been your first! As a Melbourne suppirter this is the first time in my 40 years i can honestly say im expecting a top 4 finish and genuinely beleive the Demons can win a flag within the next handful of years. Every article ive read suggests the same which has me worried we will fall flat on our faces due to the weight of expectation - i was hoping this article would deflate me just a bit but rather than in depth analysis as to why Melbourne might fail it was justca "well heres a few clubs that flopped after high expectations"... Melbourne and Collingwood are in my opinion at least far better than those teams mentioned. Doesnt mean they will win a flag but i reckon both are in a good place for genuine tilts - unlike Port and Hawthorn... and the dogs in 2016 were the biggest fluke in modern times.
Marty Gleason
Roar Guru
Correction: Essendon v Hawthorn 2001 was Cox's 13th game. Something weird happens to my maths brain when I'm looking up even basic sports stats.