Watching the Sydney-Carlton game on Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium, what struck me more than anything else was the difference between a veteran team and a young team.
The first quarter looked great for both teams – 11 goals out of 16 shots, back-and-forth action.
But once the grunt action that Sydney loves took hold, gradually the veteran team began to dominate as the youngsters began to tire of the crunch work.
The notable exceptions were Carlton’s star of the present, Patrick Cripps, and their star of the future, Sam Walsh.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Slowly, the blue jerseys started to fall away as the red jerseys held possession more and more often.
And then Mitch McGovern happened.
Somehow, in the pack of players amassed in one of Carlton’s rare inside-50s, McGovern managed to kick a goal-of-the-year candidate directly over his own head through the centre of the goal that brought the Blues back to life – and back to a 12-point margen, too.
Harry McKay missed a goal a minute later that might have changed the course of the game, but what remained was the more open style of footy that the youngsters prefer to play.
From there, the second half played out the way one might expect.
The Swans controlled the play, the improving Blues never let them quite run away with the game, and a final goal by Isaac Heeney with under five minutes to play finally put the game to rest.
Jacob Weitering had several great moments.
Liam Jones played Lance Franklin as well as he can be played, but Franklin also had half a dozen moments of ‘man among boys’, as he often does when he’s healthy.
Jarrad McVeigh was tremendous until his hamstring wasn’t.
McKay and Ed Curnow were both superb up forward.
Elsewhere on Saturday, congratulations to Sydney Stack, the debutant for Richmond whose first kick was average, his second kick was atrocious and out-of-bounds sideways, and his third kick was a beautiful goal from fifty metres.
Let’s talk about the first three goals in that Giants-Tigers game.
Goal one, less than a minute in: Free kick in barrel-shooting range for Jeremy Cameron after a free kick was paid for a hit off the ball to Lachie Whitfield. Gift.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Goal two: the Stack goal that only moved within range because of a 50 paid against Harry Himmelberg for following his man and being led ostensibly into the restricted area. Gift.
Goal three: Daniel Rioli, given a free kick within ten metres of the goal that he deserved to receive but not exactly a blatant hold.
The other seven scores were all behinds during the course of play.
So, if you want to score a goal, apparently you need to squeeze a penalty out of the system these days.
It took a brilliant left-footer by the underrated Cameron – nursing a bum shoulder at the time – to prove my theory wrong.
On another umpiring topic, is there ever going to be another re-bounce again?
It no longer seems to matter if the centre bounce lands inside the circle, outside the circle, outside the square, or outside the stadium!
Go get it, rucks!
Add that to the six-six-six and you can have some dominant scoring chances off the bounces.
At the Gabba, great job, Brisbane.
They scored the last 27 points of the game over the final five minutes to overrun fellow undefeated side Port Adelaide 107-90.
This was the kind of game that Carlton loses this season, and the Lions would have lost last year.
Some readers may remember that I’ve talked about the No.1 predictor of a ladder jumper is an abnormally high percentage compared to the win-loss record.
Last year, Collingwood was the best candidate, although not an exceptional one, and they leapt from 13th to third and the grand final.
In 2018, Brisbane came within a hair of having a percentage of 90 with a 5-17 record, something no team has ever done in the 120 years of the VFL/AFL.
Over the first three weeks, we’ve seen the precise reason why: three wins that may well have been ‘honourable losses’ last year, especially Saturday’s game at the Gabba.
It wouldn’t be hard to imagine them flipping the script, maintaining a percentage of 110 or so and a record more like 17-5.
It’s a team with mostly the same players as last year – though Lachie Neale has been a remarkable catalyst – but that extra year of experience, and experience with each other, has made all the difference.
Unlike Port.
For the Power, much of the improvement is from the improvement of young players and the introduction of new studs like Connor Rozee, who was phenomenal against Brisbane on Saturday night.
Sam Powell-Pepper showed his maturity by being around the ball all night, and Paddy Ryder reminded us how great he is in the forward 50 when he’s healthy.
Finally, here’s another indicator of just how unpredictable this season’s been.
As of Saturday night, there have been eight games (of 24 in total) where all 19 of our prediction sources agreed on which team should win that game, including Melbourne and the Giants this weekend.
Those favored teams are only 4-4.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Silvagni isn't playing AFL, Polson & Gibbons will likely be pushed out in coming weeks (i expect both to be out this week tbh) as players come back from injury (and hopefully Fasolo finds form) and Goddard can't play their role as a small forward and Garlett will be behind Marchbank and Williamson (plus Docherty), so again Goddard would struggle to play AFL if those were who is replacing. Barlow I was keen on but again if he plays Kennedy & Setterfield don't and they are the better long term options. If the blues wanted to look short term Murphy and Ed Curnow would be going to the stoppages instead of the young blokes like Dow and Fisher.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
fair enough about Goddard fitness. However I maintain he would be a far better option on your list then plenty! As for who directly on Silvagni is not up to it, what I’ve seen of Polson, he’s not up to it. Garlett, Gibbons are all not better options then someone like Goddard. There were other available as well. Barlow another one comes to mind.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Michael - so you are seriously suggesting that Cripps and Casboult missed their shots at goal because of defensive pressure? The last paragraph isn't an opinion, it is a fact, the blues dominated the Swans in the last quarter. The Swans were good enough to absorb the pressure and the blues missed chances to increase that pressure.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Your first sentence is silly. Of course both are true. Your last para is obviously your unshakable opinion that suits your kindly purpose to your team. I'll leave it at that.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Putting aside the fact that by the time Docherty go injured and the blues talked to Goddard he was (by his own admission) far to unfit to be able to give another year a serious crack you still haven't answered the question. If he plays in the middle who goes out Dow, SPS, Fisher, Walsh, Setterfield? Does he keep Kennedy out of the team? Up forward we need small forwards not another 190cm plus player so does he take Curnow's spot or McGovern's? Does he hold Silvagni out? Down back does Marchbank or Thomas go out? Does Williamson get kept out of the side?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Goddard can play in the middle... He can play forward. He offers years and years of experience. You choose to have an absolute blinkered look. He would of demanded players to be better. Another assistant coach! And Bolton needs as many of them as he can get
Macca
Roar Rookie
So he plays round 1 and 2 then gets dropped for Marchbank? Williamson is only a couple of weeks away from coming back so would you play Goddard in front of him? Our backline already had Thomas next to Simpson so what is Goddard offering that we don't have?
Macca
Roar Rookie
"even C Curnow hasn’t made the big strides everyone expected of him." In the 1 and 1/4 games he has played this year. If you look at some of the players on your list of consistent Brisbane players you have names like McStay (24 this year) Gardiner (24 this year) Andrews (23 this year) & McInerney (25 this year). The players you are knocking for being inconsistent at the blues are Curnow (23 this year) Sivagni (22 this year) and SPS (22 this year). You could also mention O'Brien (20 this year) Setterfield ( 21 this year) Cunignham (22) or Kennedy (22) - the last 3 all facing injury battles so far in their career. Consitency generally come with time, and you players have had just that little bit more.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Take your pick. Him next to Simpson in the backline would be a very good start. 1st couple of games you had Garlett back there who’s god awful. So there’s two games who could of easily played!
Macca
Roar Rookie
Rebound pressure has a lot to do with ineffective inside 50's but not ineffective shots at goal. Rebound pressure was non-existant when Casboult marked on his chest on a lead 35m out from goal. Rebound pressure didn't make Cripps miss his goal from 40m out. The blues were in control in the last quarter, the Swans hung on. Credit to them for dong it but they weren't in control and the blues were their own worst enemies.
Macca
Roar Rookie
What exactly would Goddard have added, where would he have played and whose spot would he have taken?
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Really? So rebound pressure has nothing to do with ineffective inside 50’s? Nope, poor excuse.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
A lot to with our the coaches have taught their teams to play. Fagan from the start has been aggressive and encouraged a positive take the game on game plan. While working on the structure of defence. Bolton completely went the other way. Basically going completely defensive. Slow ball movement safety 1st at all times. Now they are trying to emerge from this and just can’t make the adjustments. Brisbane have seen multiple players develop under Fagan. McCluggage, Berry, Rayner, Bailey, Witherden, Hipwood, McInerney, Andrews, Gardiner, McStay all provide genuine consistency in what they do. You’ve even seen perennial inconsistent players like Walker & Rich find consistency and development. Carlton - you’ve got Weitering, McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Dow this year who shown genuine consistency. Cripps is an absolute gun has obviously become a star. But there’s too much inconsistency with other like SPS, Silvagni and even C Curnow hasn’t made the big strides everyone expected of him.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I respect the Swans for continuing to defy a lot of pundits and a guess the general AFL time line but like others I can’t love them purely from a game sense. They are one of the hardest teams to watch play. Every game is such a scrap and just a plain old eye sore. But credit to them for continuing to win
Macca
Roar Rookie
Kane- it has been a little tough to "show some mongrel" at the selection table with players like Cuningham, Kennedy, Williamson, Lang, Marchbank (up to this week) not to mention Kreuzer and Charlie all injured and costing us depth. That will change pretty quick in the next couple of weeks.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Bad kicking is bad football but it doesn't mean you weren't in control. The blues dominated the last quarter but let themselves down with bad kicking.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Free kick count 27 to 12 in favour of the Bullies. What is that about. Anyway, made no difference against the rampaging Suns.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Did I mention pathetic footy club? Geez, what a weak performance.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
You were out scored. Bad kicking is bad football. Ie not in control. I’m sure you’ve used that well worn cliche yourself a few times? Actually if you want to pretend otherwise, then You go for your life.
Jack
Guest
I really like the gibbons vfl to afl Story and I am Not ready to write him off but his been a passenger. Last time Matthew Kennedy player for Blues he got 29 touches , not To forget at 36 games and taken the pick before Cripps he is a senior player. That may of been the difference yesterday, I think we have a gun very young liat however I think it’s fair To say Bolton is sontantly outcoached . Will see how we Go Against gc but how Kennedy didn’t come in for gibbons does slightly defy logic And we may be looking at a different result