Without ever hitting full flight so far in this World Cup Australia are in a strong position, with three wins and one loss on the board.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have had washouts in their last two matches.
Given how badly they have struggled in ODIs of late that has arguably helped them, giving them four points (equivalent to two wins) after four games. Victory in this match would leave Australia needing to win only two of their final four games to be all but assured of making the semi-finals.
Key strategy: Sri Lanka’s batsmen should go after Australia’s support bowlers
Australia’s star opening bowlers Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc have been outstanding so far in this tournament, combining for 18 wickets at 20. But beyond that Australia’s bowling has been badly exposed. Six other Australians have bowled in this World Cup – Nathan Coulter-Nile, Adam Zampa, Kane Richardson, Marcus Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell and Aaron Finch – and they collectively have the awful figures of 13 wickets at 55.
What’s more is that they have been unable to support Cummins and Starc by building pressure through tight bowling. Together that group of support bowlers have conceded a whopping 6.5 runs per over. The only team to beat Australia thus far, India recognised the vulnerability of these support bowlers and targeted them. This forced Australian captain Aaron Finch to return to Cummins and Starc sooner than he would have liked.
This is the key to victory for Sri Lanka today. If they can cash in on the looser offerings of Australia’s support bowlers it will mess with Finch’s plans and increase the pressure on Starc and Cummins to do the heavy lifting yet again.
Key Sri Lankan: Kusal Perera
Sri Lanka’s batting line-up is in disarray and has been for quite some time in ODIs. There is talent there in the form of Angelo Mathews, Kusal Mendis, Dimuth Karunaratne and Lahiru Thirimanne.
Collectively, however, that group have made few runs of late in this format. Comfortably their best batsman this year has been gloveman Kusal Perera. Despite having to keep wickets, Perera has also been a rock in their top order, making 297 runs at 42 so far this year. His knock of 78 from 81 balls proved the difference between the teams as Sri Lanka beat Afghanistan in a very low scoring match last week at Cardiff. An aggressive stroke maker he will look to clatter Australia’s support bowlers. But first he might have to make it past Starc and Cummins.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Key Australian: Pat Cummins
The biggest weakness of this Sri Lankan side is their vulnerability against quality pace bowling. They were rolled for 136 in their first match of this tournament after New Zealand quicks Matt Henry (3-29) and Lockie Ferguson (3-22) ran amok.
Right now there is not a batsman in this tournament who would fancy facing Cummins with the new ball. The intimidating paceman is in the form of his life, having grabbed 26 wickets at 15 this year in ODIs. Cummins’ length has been wonderful so far in this tournament, frequently leaving batsmen unsure of whether to stride forward or press back. He’s also a fantastic bowler against left handers, exploiting the natural angle across them, and Sri Lanka’s top three have all been lefties in their matches to date.
Wildcard players:
Sri Lanka: Nuwan Pradeep
Pradeep blows volcanic hot or arctic cold. There is little in between for the Sri Lankan seamer. Just three matches ago he bowled dross as he was carted for 0-77 from nine overs against New Zealand in Nelson. Yet in his two ODIs since then he has figures of 4-34 and 4-31.
That second set of figures earned him man of the match in Sri Lanka’s win over Afghanistan last week.
Pradeep was denied the new ball in that match and was the fourth bowler used by Sri Lanka. Yet he had an immediate impact, taking two wickets in his first three overs. When Afghanistan rallied to 5-121, and were threatening to chase down the target of 202, Pradeep returned and broke their spirit with two wickets in the space of three balls. The right armer is not fast, nor does he gain extravagant swing, bounce or seam movement. But he’s a true wildcard, the kind of bowler who can get on a roll out of nowhere.
Australia: Usman Khawaja
Khawaja’s head must be spinning after the first four games of this World Cup. After dominating as an opener this year he was shunted down to number three to start this tournament, then to four against India, before ending up in entirely foreign territory at six in Australia’s last match versus Pakistan.
It’s hard to know just where he’ll be stationed in this match against Sri Lanka. In fact, there’s an outside chance he might not even play at all if the selectors decide to go in a different direction. There is no doubt Khawaja is at his best as an opener, when he can use his sweet timing and wide array of strokes to take advantage of the fielding restrictions.
He’s also shown an improved ability to rotate the strike, which means he’s not a liability if he doesn’t open. But it’s hard not to feel that if he is again pushed into the middle order today that he may be on his last chance, after making 88 runs at 22 in this World Cup to date. Can he use this pressure to produce his best or will it hamper his strokeplay? We may find out soon.
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Rebbo
Guest
England have beaten us in 9 of the last 10 ODIs. Mainly because of their superior batting
Andrew
Guest
Since there is little choice Ronan, I'd go with the extra bat and back our batsmen can out bat Sri Lanka.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I'd give both Lyon and Behrendorff a run today.
Andrew
Guest
I'm not saying by any means that Finch couldn't be put down to 5, however it is relatively unproven whereas Finch and Khawaja opening is proven to work as they had an average of over 50 for an opening partnership. Warner is the safer bet.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Finch does start well against spin so you'd think he wouldn't be out of place in the middle order, but he's opened in 111 of his 113 ODIs so I just don't see them making such a change in the middle of a World Cup.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Mitch Marsh is in England ready to play but Finch has now said Stoinis will be given a few more days to prove his fitness. What that means is that Australia must pick an unbalanced side today - either 5 specialist bowlers, or go with the same balance as the last game with 5 specialist batsmen and Maxwell the only all-rounder.
Andrew
Guest
I guess my best response to this is adapting geneally takes time. If we wanted to experiment more with batting lineups and position changes then they should have been done well before the world cup started. The problem with this is we had Smith and Warner suspended so we didn't get time for the team to settle and the team was just thrusted together for a WC. This is why for the most part the team needs to go back to as close as possible to when it functioned best. Finch and Khawaja were flying together before Warner and Smith were reintroduced back to the team. Smith slots straight back into 3 with little problem but moving Khawaja out of opening position to accommodate Warner has disrupted Khawaja's game and thereby the stability of the team. Moving Warner to 5 serves 2 purposes, 1. It gives Khawaja the ability to play where he best fits. 2. Support for Maxwell to be aggressive and close out games. Post WC if batting lineups need to be adjusted/trialled to improve with the times then that can happen but mid WC is not the time to learn to adapt. I hope this answers your comment.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi Andrew. I agree, it is the Australian way. But that way shouldn’t be just set in stone. The game over rime changes and grows. Sri Lankan winning in 96 was such a huge mind shift ( come about by an Australian’s ideas no less, Dav Watmore ). I remember critics and commentators (mark taylor) thinking it wrong/nuts/everything thing else, saying the best way is a slow build. Overtime all proved wrong. I know I won’t have the skills to explain this best but, I think what that style actually was was understanding the important parts. You have 10 wickets (not all are any good at getting runs), 300 balls, a team produces those balls in ways beat it can to restrict runs. SR looked at field restriction (first 15) to get more boundaries. A big risk, but making it the goal, selecting who was best at it and practice. West Indies a while ago came upon the idea of 6’s and 4’s. Leaving most every other ball they couldn’t smash (the Gayle style). Bob Simpson worked the 300 balls out also but went along the lines of running hard, singles, 2’s. As many as the could. The larger scores in odi since it began has come from all these ideas. When it first started many players couldn’t get their head around the importance of strike rate. The ‘builder’ batman will be in the team for a long time and those type players have got better at 4’s and 6’s, but the boundary guy’s are the. I even remember Dean Jones saying how he would get into trouble for ‘smashing’ it whilst in the nets. A totally different approach to the game. You do need players with the talent, but thinking outside the box people are big also. In the beginning teams never had those ‘tonking’ player, maybe a Greg Chappell, mark waugh, skilled batsmen who could smash a six once in a while. A fast bowler at the end (Joel Garner) hitting a six or two, but now days, ha. Paul above (hi), I loved how you put it with Finch and his bowlers or anytime, they bring in another bowler if one not working (adapting). Why not do it with batting lineup.
Magic
Guest
Oh, the stats provide useful information Andrew but as you said he has batted in ODIs two times as non opner so, basically it is very short sample size and do you remember Andrew when AUS played 2 or3 t 20 against Sri Lanka and in those matches AUS opened with Warner and short and finch played at 5 and did well and I correctly don't remember AUS made 243 something against perhaps NZ I hope you remember
Andrew
Guest
I just looked for stats for Finch and from what I've read he has only batted in odi's 2 times not as an opener so unproven at this stage. The choice of Finch and Khawaja opening is however proven quite recently to have matched the Finch/Warner combination so Warner is capable of batting lower down the order.
Scotty
Guest
I'd like the two lefties to open. Both are natural openers, whereas Finch struggles with the moving ball early, but is fantastic against spin. Even if it breaks up the left / right combo, it feels like he is the won more suited to be down the order. Khawaja Warner Smith Marsh Finch Maxwell
Targa
Guest
Another player to watch is Thisara Perera. The bloke is a very dangerous hitter who could do a lot of damage in the last 5-10 overs
Andrew
Guest
Unfortunately Finch is like Khawaja, he has to open as well. Warner IS the only versatile player of the 3. If your after stats on Finch opening vs not you'd have to ask Ronan.
Magic
Guest
Hello Andrew, yes it could be mistake but sorry am not agree on Warner down the order, don't you think finch should bat lower instead of Warner? than you can open with Warner and Khawaja and finch is comfortable against the spin from where I see, than the batting order will be settled down like Warner, Khawaja, smith, finch, Marsh, Maxwell, Carey, Cummins, Starc, dorf, zampa strong and wonderfully balanced side because it seems both Warner and Khawaja can play Seam and swing bowling better than finch and than you have better middle order batsman in form of smith, finch, Maxwell and Marsh against the spin
Peter Warrington
Guest
For most of them their T20 ability belies your assessment of them Just go hard for longer by picking a deep order
Peter Warrington
Guest
Why be more conservative than. England when our batsmen are better? England didn’t become England by fixing up after trying and getting 306 It could easily be 360 next time
Andrew
Guest
Hi Magic, I agree Khawaja opening won't happen but I think this a mistake that will more than likely cost Australia the WC. Khawaja has a 50 ave opening and drops 30 average approx for everywhere else. It's ludicrous to put him anywhere else just to fit Warner back in. What's the point of putting Warner opening if we give up 30 runs to do it. The smarter choice is to give Warner a license to hit at 5 before Maxi. I'd take Warner getting a quick 50 late vs a run a ball 100 at the start when I believe Khawaja can do similar opening.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
The problems we've got with the allrounder spot makes me wish I'd appreciated Watto a bit more than I did. He could be exasperating at times but nothing like these current guys.
Magic
Guest
But, christo you and all know this is not going to happen in this world cup Khawaja will have to bat at 4 if he play in the team. And I don't think he is better opner than Warner and if he can play at 3 than why not at 4 because smith must bat at 3 if AUS want to make final, your best bat must play lots of over With time to settle down at the pitch
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Is Lyon a chance of playing given the number of lefties in the Sri Lankan team, and the need to keep things tighter? Is Stoinis still injured? If so please bite the bullet and replace him with M Marsh. Though I think Langer and co are big on loyalty and will be reluctant to do so. Windies-England game last night was another where the team bowling first had an unfair advantage. English commentator noted that in England at this time of year, if you start at 10.30 bowl Test match length and the pitch will do the rest. Why are they starting at 10.30 when it’s still light at 8.30 pm (and there will be more spectators and viewers 6-8pm)? I realised - it’s purely for the Indian TV market - so they can have the daytime matches finishing by 11pm Indian time. But it’s a ridiculous way to run a tournament.