With seven rounds remaining, the race for finals positions is heating up.
In this two-part analysis, I will detail the run home, predict where your team will finish at the end of 23 rounds and the first week of the finals series.
Part 1 will detail the teams currently in the top eight, while Part 2 will look at what chance the rest have of reaching the finals, or avoiding the wooden spoon.
Geelong Cats
Currently first (12 wins, 3 losses, 140.6per cent)
Matches to play: St Kilda (GMHBA), Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney Swans (SCG), Fremantle (Optus), North Melbourne (GMHBA), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Carlton (GMHBA)
Although they have lost two of their last three matches since the Round 13 bye, Geelong’s run home is a dream, seeing them face just one team currently in the eight, and three of seven matches at Kardinia Park.
The Cats’ loss to the Western Bulldogs saw their lead at the top of the ladder reduced to just one match, though given their next four opponents are teams that are unlikely to qualify for September, they can establish a comfortable buffer before they head to the Gabba in Round 22 to face the Lions.
The trip to Brisbane will be the last of three interstate trips Chris Scott’s side will have to make; they will also have to travel on either side of a six-day break when they face the Swans in Sydney, and Fremantle in Perth, in Rounds 19 and 20 respectively.
Apart from the match against the Lions, their showdown against North Melbourne at home in Round 21 looms as a tricky clash, given the Roos’ form has lifted since Rhyce Shaw took over as their caretaker coach.
In the end, the Cats should finish as minor premiers for the first time since 2008, though it remains to be seen whether their first final will be at the MCG or Kardinia Park.
Predicted finish: first
Gary Rohan (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
West Coast Eagles
Currently second (11 wins, 4 losses, 114.3per cent)
Matches to play: Collingwood (Optus), Melbourne (TIO Traeger Park), North Melbourne (Optus), Carlton (Marvel), Adelaide Crows (Optus), Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (Optus)
After a shaky start to their premiership defence, the Eagles have won three consecutive matches since the Round 13 bye, including a 91-point annihilation of Fremantle in the 50th Western Derby.
With the Pies and Giants both losing over the weekend, the result saw Adam Simpson’s side jump up to second on the ladder, ahead of a mixed run to September, with matches against Collingwood, Adelaide and Richmond on the horizon.
The match against the Tigers looms as the trickiest, with the yellow and black playing their sixth (of seven) consecutive match at the home of football to finish their season.
That is one of two matches the Eagles will get in Melbourne in the run home, the other being against Carlton at Marvel Stadium in Round 20. They finish off with home matches against the Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn on either side of the said match against Richmond.
If the Eagles can keep up their good vein of form in the final seven weeks, then another home qualifying final looms.
Predicted finish: second
Collingwood Magpies
Currently third (10 wins, 5 losses, 118.3per cent)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (Optus), GWS Giants (Giants), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast Suns (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Essendon (MCG)
Having lost their last two matches, this Friday night the Pies head west as underdogs to face the Eagles, then to Sydney to face the Greater Western Sydney Giants.
The Pies only have to travel once more after that, when they play the Adelaide Crows at the Oval, with their remaining matches at the MCG, including blockbusters against Richmond (Round 19) and Essendon (Round 23).
Given their recent poor form, I can’t see them finishing any higher than seventh.
Predicted finish: seventh
Brisbane Lions
Currently fourth (10 wins, 5 losses, 111.5per cent)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (Oval), North Melbourne (Gabba), Hawthorn (UTAS), Western Bulldogs (Gabba), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Geelong Cats (Gabba), Richmond (MCG)
One of the most improved teams this season, the Lions are only a win or two away from finally ending their decade-long finals drought.
Brisbane scored their third straight win since the bye last Sunday, when they led from start to finish to defeat GWS in Sydney, breaking a six-match losing streak against the Giants and a seven-match losing streak in the Harbour City.
They’ll be on the road for a second consecutive week on Sunday when they face the hot-and-cold Port Adelaide at the Oval, where the Lions have yet to taste success – their last trip to the City of Churches ended in a heartbreaking, five-point defeat to the Power.
They’ll enjoy home matches against North, the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast – teams unlikely to feature in September – while they can also look forward to a blockbuster home-game against Geelong in the penultimate round.
All that then leads to a difficult final round showdown against Richmond – whom they haven’t beaten anywhere in over a decade – at the MCG.
On form alone, the Lions should win their next six matches, and will give themselves every chance of beating the Tigers in the final round with the double chance possibly at stake.
Predicted finish: third
Brisbane’s Lachie Neale (Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
GWS Giants
Currently fifth (9 wins, 6 losses, 125.4per cent)
Matches to play: Richmond (MCG), Collingwood (Giants), Port Adelaide (Oval), Sydney Swans (Giants), Hawthorn (UNSW), Western Bulldogs (Giants), Gold Coast Suns (Metricon)
Last week’s loss to Brisbane could prove costly for GWS in the run home, as it dropped them to fifth on the ladder.
A tough run to September now starts on Sunday, when the Giants face Richmond at the MCG for the first time since the 2017 preliminary final, which brought about their equal-worst defeat in a finals match. GWS will have surely seen the Tigers demolish the Suns at Metricon Stadium last Saturday – and they’ll be hoping that they don’t fall prey to a side that seems to be gathering momentum.
That is then followed by a home clash against an out-of-form Collingwood side, Port Adelaide at the Oval in Round 19, then home games against the Swans, Hawthorn (Canberra) and the Western Bulldogs.
A final round trip to the Gold Coast to face the Suns ends all that before the Giants gear up for a fourth consecutive finals series.
Despite their recent poor form (4-4 since Round 7), the Giants can pick themselves up again and claim a double chance.
Predicted finish: fourth
Richmond Tigers
Currently sixth (9 wins, 6 losses, 103.0per cent)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (MCG), West Coast Eagles (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG)
After demolishing the Suns on the holiday strip last week, Richmond will not have to leave the MCG for the rest of the season.
Their seven-match streak at the home of football starts with a clash against GWS, one of four MCG clashes they will enjoy against interstate clubs – the others being against Port Adelaide, West Coast and Brisbane.
While Richomnd will just about start favourites in every match from here on in, I can’t see them beating the Eagles at the MCG, which could ultimately cost them a double chance.
Predicted finish: fifth
Tom Lynch of the Tigers celebrates a goal with Daniel Rioli. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide Power
Currently seventh (8 wins, 7 losses, 110.3per cent)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (Oval), Richmond (MCG), GWS Giants (Oval), Essendon (Marvel), Sydney Swans (Oval), North Melbourne (Marvel), Fremantle (Oval)
Port Adelaide’s finals credentials will be put to the test in the next four weeks, when they face sides that are also jockeying for places in the top eight.
The Power produced easily their best performance of the season on Saturday, coming from behind early in the third quarter to thrash the Crows by 57 points at home to register – just their second win against the men from West Lakes since 2015.
However, they now face a tough run home, starting with a home game against the much-improved Lions in what will be their fourth consecutive match at the Oval, before they travel to face Richmond at the MCG.
They also tackle Essendon and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on either side of their first home game against the Sydney Swans since 2015, then finish off against Fremantle at the Oval.
Depending on how other results go, they could be playing for a berth in September, but I have them finishing short for a second straight year.
Predicted finish: ninth
Adelaide Crows
Currently eighth (8 wins, 7 losses, 105.0per cent)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), Essendon (Oval), Carlton (MCG), St Kilda (Oval), West Coast Eagles (Optus), Collingwood (Oval), Western Bulldogs (Mars)
Coach Don Pyke will be wondering what’s gone wrong with his side in recent weeks, with the Crows having dropped their last two matches to the Geelong Cats and Port Adelaide, with their finals hopes now on knife’s edge.
The loss to the Power was particularly deflating; despite kicking the first goal of the second half, they conceded the final nine goals of the game to crash to their heaviest Showdown loss since Round 2, 2014.
They’ll be expected to bounce back when they face the last-placed Suns on the Gold Coast this week, as they stand as the only side that has yet to lose to the ninth-year club since they entered the AFL in 2011.
They have blockbuster home matches against Essendon and Collingwood to look forward to as well, while they will also get a run on the MCG when they face Carlton in Round 19.
On the basis of their good run home, I can see the Crows bouncing back and earning themselves a home elimination final.
Predicted finish: sixth
My predicted qualifying finals
Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants at GMHBA Stadium
West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
My predicted elimination finals
Richmond vs Essendon at MCG
Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood at Adelaide Oval
Danny
Guest
totally.... we missed out on that one from memory he was really close to 200. I'm living in Thailand and yesterday at the local Aussie pub rumours were swirling that Gibbs has massive gambling debt involved with bikie gangs and about to be sacked ...I assume just gossip but might explain his form if any truth
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I also remember how unfair the Gibbs deal was. If your father played 150 WAFL games he could then got to WC or Freo (before those clubs joined the AFL) but SANFL sons had to have their father play 200 games before Adelaide (or Port) entered the comp. Typical Victorians.
Daniel Hyams
Guest
I also cringe when I hear city of churches I wish its was called city of atheists as most people I know are exactly that Adelaide are just lucky with their draw at best we will sneak into the 8 and get hammered....I cant believe I'm saying this but I almost hope we don't make it or even lose to GC...that would be the end of Pyke and a team rebuild and clean out of management, which anyone can see is needed...slow old and scarred from 2017, a poor game plan, soft underbelly and poor recruiting choices. Carlton must be laughing over the Gibbs trade and the Stocker deal is starting to swing in their favor
Nullaborned
Roar Rookie
Collingwood 7th. Better retink that one.
Peter Warrington
Guest
Bizarre If we beat team X and Giants lose to Team Y, we could jump them. Teams above us could beat us and lose every game to teams below us - as happens. Whatever
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Meh.
Brian
Guest
Tigers would be a great chance in a Preliminary against the Cats coming off the bye at the MCG
Brian
Guest
Been a 5 horse race for awhile. Richmond, Collingwood and GWS still in it but look shaky. Geelong v West Coast looks the most likely GF. I'd favour West Coast to salute as they did in the early 90s and win their 5th premiership
Klompy
Guest
Hi WCE I know you are upset about Richmond and Collingwood getting those home games and Richmond 7 home games. I must The Eagles are now learning to play at the MCG with two training grounds. One the Size of the MCG and the other the Size of Optus. I am wondering if the really worry now about not getting a fair quote of games. They now how to play at the MCG now. But I understand it is still not a fair level playing field as the Interstate clubs show have same amount games as the Victorian teams. But the is the AFl or is still the VFL.
Section Five
Roar Rookie
Being a long suffering Lions fan i like your prediction of 3rd. Personally i just want them to make the 8. The only game i am confident in is against the Suns. So the Lions will need to win 2 others to get to 13 wins, which will get them into the 8. I think people outside of Brisbane are talking up the Lions more so than Lions supporters. Most of the supporters i know are hoping that they stay competitive long enough into each game and we will come away with a win hopefully half of the time. Also the Lions have had a good run with injuries over the last 2 years. Hodge and Hipwood are likely to miss this week ( i hope they aren't named). So a couple from the NEAFL will come in and play a role. The Lions have only debuted 3 players this year Answerth (10 games), Hinge (2) & Starcevich (1) I will be a happy chappy if the Lions finish 5th or 6th and get a home final. As Fagan says each week we are only concentrating on our next game and improving as a team overall.
Graeme
Guest
You have to look at the bigger picture Shane. WC used to lose tight games and now they pinch those games. WC used to lose at the MCG but now it is their fortress. WC were getting smashed in the wet. I have never seen any team play wet conditions as good as last Sat. Gaff, Nic Nat, Barrass, Rioli and Cameron and a fresh JK after his week off are all positive. Happy for WCE to be written off like last year.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
That is pretty much what the ladder is. If you don’t beat the teams above you you stay where you are. If you do, you move up and they move down. So beat GWS.
Peter Warrington
Guest
i could say a million things, but I will just drop a silent but deadly "fewer" and GTF out of here
Peter Warrington
Guest
other than the sides who aren't above them because Richmond have played them and beaten them i don't know why i bother confronting this circular reference. no more. intellectual spam. as we used to say on the Hill before we were old enough to swear - WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH!
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Yadda yadda yadda. All that stuff is well known. It had more pubs than churches back in the day. And now it is the most irreligious state in Australia. It's lazy journalism to keep on with an untruth. In fact having lived in most states I believe most people 'know' things about Adelaide that are half-truths or non-truths. ---- Port? I hate. I've been a Redlegs fan since 68. Crows? Everyone knows I think we are performing 1080° quadruple twist mit inverted lumbar arch kidney inversion und treble twinkle nosed faced plant with 720° Pyke.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Right now the only existential weakness is beating sides above them. They better beat GWS at the Gee.
Bruce
Guest
Maybe if there were 10 Perth based teams.
Bruce
Guest
Cats would love an eagles matchup on the G in September. If cats make the GF (a big if I know), they'll win it.
Aus in Engerland
Guest
From Wikipedia - It has been known as the "City of Churches" since the mid-19th century It's certainly a term I have heard time and time again. While the spiritual body (see Jack A) is a church, so is the physical building. And the central block (and Northern block) used to be full of them. As a visitor they stood out like dog bollocks. Just because they are empty doesn't mean they aren't there. And a lot have been converted into more useful things. I remember one was made into an impressive nightclub in the 80's. Another into a bar. And more than one into restaurants. On the real topic. Can we trust Port or Adelaide? They both have the talent to easily go lower half of the 8, but are horribly inconsistent. Port seem the better team, but only win if motivated by a shocking loss. Adelaide just seem disorganised and disinterested, despite the obvious talent. Early in the season it looked like they were bottom half, then they turned it on and looked like making atop 4 charge, and now they are sliding again. I don't think anyone will argue Geelong will finish top. Game + % and a pretty good run home. Then it's WC/GWS/Collingwood/Brisbane/Richmond. Five into three top 4 slots. My pick is Woods and Brisbane to just miss. But if Collingwood beat WC, then it all changes. Last 2 spots. Essendon and Adelaide due to easier run home. Port unlucky.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Everyone wants to play them and Collingwood there, it helps the interstate sides prepare for the big dance.