After last weekend’s 86-81 win against a revamped Roos outfit, the Bombers are 9-7 and have scraped inside the top eight. It’s appetising to think they are a team that is on course for post-season football.
As it stands, the Bombers have now won three in a row and six of their last eight, which gives them hope. After a horrid 3-5 start to the year, the Bombers have been able to land on the right side of some close wins, but I’m not convinced they can keep producing last-ditch victories. It’s not a blueprint that is consistently feasible.
The Bombers won the key statistics that matter against North Melbourne: +10 in clearances, +9 for inside 50s and +21 for tackles. They beat the Roos at their own hardened approach and were equally aggressive.
When Rhyce Shaw’s Roos came at them they fired back. The backline stood up when Michael Hurley went off with high-grade AC joint injury early in the third term. And Bombers rookie Dylan Clarke claimed yet another high-profile scalp, this time of Ben Cunnington, suffocating him to 15 touches. The win was almost played in finals-like conditions and will give Essendon confidence in the coming weeks against teams like Adelaide and Collingwood.
(Paul Kane/Getty Images)
What we saw the Bombers do against North Melbourne were things they were heavily criticised for earlier in the season. Most football pundits said they couldn’t win ugly, yet they’ve won four ugly games, all by less than seven points, against Giants, Swans, Dockers and now the Roos.
Most said they would struggle in the midfield when things get tough. They have been more competitive in that area. And some said John Worsfold was too rigid and stubborn in his gameday approach and needed to go. He’s now coaching from the bench instead of the coaches box and it’s made him more nimble, if not more effective.
The worrying signs for Worsfold’s Bombers are the mounting injuries. All Australian defender Michael Hurley is the latest casualty, a key cog in rebounding, lock downs and intercepts. When Hurley left the ground against the Roos was when Ben Brown looked dangerous and kicked North Melbourne back in the game. Hurley is pivotal to the Bombers defence. How they fill that gap will be critical to their finals aspirations.
Hurley isn’t the only sidelined star. Essendon are without midfield workhorse Devon Smith, who played only seven games this year; All Australian Joe Daniher, who has played only four games in 2019; No. 1 ruckman Tom Bellchambers, who missed the last two games and is out for the season; and captain Dyson Heppell, who missed the last two games but should be back this week.
Essendon’s depth has been and will be truly tested in the remaining weeks. Rarely does a club have a straight swap when a key player is injured, but having those large gaps puts pressure on the new guys coming in to execute the game plan at an elite level. The Bombers hospital ward of important personnel leaves them shorthanded and will surely ease the pressure on Worsfold if they don’t make finals this year.
The other concern for the Dons are their turnovers. They continue to cough up the ball through skill errors that cost them goals. They are ranked third for turnovers, giving up 76 per game. It’s part of the game they haven’t been able to rectify. Against North Melbourne they surrendered some easy goals when trying to switch play, kicking to opposition players when moving the ball from the backline. They should be easy fixes, but giving opposition teams the opportunity to score freely in that fashion shifts momentum and will lose you games of football. Geelong, Greater Western Sydney and Brisbane have shown us they are among the top four teams in limiting turnovers – good teams create pressure to force turnovers and then capitalise on errors.
On the way to September the Bombers will have to fill some holes to maintain this run they’re on, which has so far produced less predictable football and better consistency. Since Devon Smith went down Essendon have unearthed a real player in 19-year-old Dylan Clarke, a legitimate stopper who has filled the defensive side of Smith’s role. He’ll continue to grow.
The forward line without Joe Daniher has been a work in progress, with a litany of helpers: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti with 25 goals, Jake Stringer with 23, Orazio Fantasia 16 and then Kyle Langford (11), Mitch Brown (11), Shaun McKernan (10), Darcy Parish (10) and Jayden Laverde (8). Hardly an all-star cast, but they’ve been effective. Stringer has been instrumental in keeping the forward line functioning even during their losses.
It’s been documented that Zac Clarke hasn’t played much football in the last two years, but his work rate against Todd Goldstein prompted praise from Worsfold in the absence of Tom Bellchambers. And without Hurley, Patrick Ambrose looks like he’ll come back into the team with help from Marty Gleeson, Aaron Francis and Mason Redman. The Bombers are still scrappy at times and give up easy turnovers, but a lot of what they’ve been good at is winning the hard ball, something a lot of footy pundits said they weren’t great at.
If the Bombers can take care of a trio of winnable games coming up against the Suns, Power and Bulldogs all at home, that would take them to 12 wins. Another win against one of Adelaide or Fremantle (both away) or Collingwood should give them a ticket entry into the 2019 finals.
Right now they are doing enough to crawl to victory. Can they sustain it? Most likely not. My gut feeling is that Bombers fans are going to have to hold off celebrating their finals hoodoo-breaking win until 2020. But I guess we’ll have to wait and see how the next six weeks plays out.
Jesse
Guest
Thinking about revising your article?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Check up my follow up writing piece for a different view to dwell on
adam CFC
Guest
Could you be more wrong? CFC supporter.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Wow they proved everyone wrong again tonight. Depleted essendon pull off a blinder again. they surprised me tonight getting up without hurley . This article looks slightly off the mark now but still a long way to go and their percentage is not high but with two very questionable losses to swans with rampe climbing the post to deny them the win and the woods shambles umpiring anzac match where they went down by four and won close to three quarters of footy well this team would have gone second tonight with those questionable outcomes. Not bad for an injury depleted team being 6th as it stands . The mockers are all quiet now no doubt
JamesH
Roar Guru
Hurley is very important but his loss is mitigated by the fact that Hooker, Redman and Francis are capable of playing a similar style (to varying effect). Until Hartley, Ambrose was the only lockdown key defender we'd played this year. I suspect Hartley is there for the purpose of taking Jenkins, with Ambrose to get the job on Lynch (unless Gleeson does, in which case Ambrose will have Walker). That gives Hooker, Redman and/or Francis a bit more freedom to intercept.
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Too Early to weight that up Rissole, game by game basis now with all the injuries. A win against Adelaide would turn some heads without several key players. Hoping they can surprise again tonight but a tough assignment with our away from being poor and injuries
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I don't know if lady luck was on their side. Hurley got injured third quarter which allowed North to come home well . Hooker was cramping all last quarter and they dominated north in second and third quarters and lead by 19 at the last change . They deserved the win and probably had bigger commissions than North in Daniher, Ambrose, Smith, Heppell and Bellchambers. Id say north had a bit more lady luck. Going to be hard for the bombers with 3 away games out of last 6 and massive injuries but they may sneak in. Trying to work out how teams like the tigers can play their last 7 matches at the MCG whilst we have to go to three different states and five different grounds
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Well a win against the Woods which was a set of umpiring debacles earlier in season and some goal post climbing by rampe being awarded with an AFL blind eye statement would have seen another 8 points and Essendon 5th. I wouldn't say Essendon are any better than 5th or 6th at best per results though right now and injuries have decimated them so your comments a bit off the mark
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Id say thats right Essendon may go down tonight, hopefully they surprise me again but then beat Gold Coast which leads to some insane play off rounds against Port And West Bulldogs. Any more injuries and they are are toast though as Essendon is starting to dip in to VFL players level substitutions now
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Hopefully they stay on radar only as they both bomb in goals against collingwoods in round 23 ! You are right though they are brilliant . I noticed a few teams like West Coast really targeted them both to shut them down though
Pierro
Roar Rookie
I hope your thatsashame but Hurley and Fantasia are now big commissions as is having no ruck at all with clarke now out. We are decimated yet the replacements with the exception of hartley maybe are very very good players just structurally we now have an issue. The one to watch is Snelling. Im hoping he can have a big game. He's been winning the inside mid for essendon week after week in the vfl so delighted he gets a chance but a big ask away from home. We havent won one away match this year (although we should have one for Sydney away where its seems it doesn't matter if players climb goalposts and wobble them when a clear free kick is written in the rules Ha!)
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Ambrose is definitely a first team starter but its Hurley who time after time draws the top 3 or 4 votes and is often the rock in the middle countering wave after wave of attacks. Ambrose does a different job for me which is quieter man marking players he's very tough and highly effective and for me he had always showed signs he develop in to a hibbard type player (who sadly the bombers lost after the ridiculous witch hunt). In any event I just find it strange he's named ambrose and hartley who is definitely not an elite defender despite his solid vfl form . Mitch brown can float back there. I read he might rotate hartley in the ruck with mckernan seeing zac clarke is now injured though. Not quite sure. Slightly imbalanced with fantasia out . Surpised he didnt put begley in there to replace him. Some strange rotations despite the solid heppel coming back in
JamesH
Roar Guru
That's my worry. This kind of injury tends to go one of two ways.
Simoc
Guest
Think you forgot to mention they're a pretty ordinary team at best but can scrap out a win when its even against other no hopers.
Matt Jones
Guest
Solid article. As a neutral observer, I noticed that although the Bombers played a very good game last week against a resurgent North Melbourne, and shut down Cunnington superbly, Lady Luck was also on their side. The late withdrawal of Mason Wood(replaced by the VFL standard and much smaller Nathan Hrovat) and in-game heart palpitations of Nick Larkey, who just a week earlier got a rising star nomination with 5 goals, decimated North’s key forward stocks. I’m a Brisbane fan, and I can only hope that Wood and Larkey are missing, along with two of North Melbourne’s best midfielders, Shaun Higgins and of course Ben Jacobs. Best of luck to the Bombers for the rest of the season. Would be a huge effort if they make it from that 3-5 start.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Saad and Mckenna are two of my favourite players in the competition. They are the archetype of the modern defender. I know they are on Derek Hine’s radar. (Pies head of recruiting)
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I hope so James but OP and big fellas doesn't usually end well. Moore's soft tissue issues a worry too though sometimes they can grow out of them.
MG
Roar Rookie
Their defence is amazing. Swans threw everything at them and they stood up. Roos did the same. Suspect they'll make finals but won't advance far.
ChuckIt
Roar Rookie
The crunch game for Essendon is against Port at Marvel in round 20. Win that and they play finals and Port misses out.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I'd argue that Ambrose has been the biggest out. It feels funny saying that because I didn't really think he would make it as an AFL defender prior to this season. Until his injury though, he had the lowest percentage of one-on-one contest losses for all key defenders in the league for 2019. Ambrose would have taken Brown on Saturday, with Hurley and Hooker both capable of floating across as the third man up. If he's back on Friday then it gives the Bombers some flexibility as to how they approach their matchups with the Crows. He might end up taking the returning Tom Lynch.